Random thoughts on an August day

Written on 02 August 2025.

Will Trump accept defeat?

By using the customary tariff threat which he employs to discipline governments worldwide, President Donald Trump urged Russia to agree asap to a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Dmitri Medwedjew answered by threatening the United States with nuclear arms, and Trump responded by saying he is sending two nuclear submarines toward Russia.

A silly game among two braggards, or the world’s most explosive moment since 1945? Who can tell?

There are a few facts to consider. Medwedyev loves inflammatory language and is understood as voicing Putin’s true opinion if unbridled by cautious statesmanship.

Trump is torn by competing urges: he hates the idea to be challenged by a subordinate, low level windbag. Although probably wishing to maintain his special relationship with Putin (Krasnov!) there is no reason for him to tolerate a bigmouthed nobody like Medwedyev.

Being addicted to his preferred media, Trump apparently rates Medvedyed’s threats as sufficiently important for the American public opinion to feel urged to counteract. By moving nuclear submarines (or at least pretending such a move) Trump nobilitates Medvedyev.

What an honor for a Russian blogger (with a remarkable past and a rather modest present) to have moved two foreign nuclear submarines!

So far, so weird. But let's assume that the mentally impaired current US president had decided to shed his “Krasnov” persona and discover beneath it a courageous American patriot who resists possible blackmail because of Putin’s compromat.

A new Trump, following in the footsteps of his predecessor Biden, so to speak. The world watches, torn between amusement and horror. Ukraine's Zelensky is a happy camper...

Why should the world pay special attention? Because there is nobody left who could prevent Trump from committing a possible folly. He started his second term of office by surrounding himself with acolytes. None of them would stop him from pressing the red button.

Since it is certain that Putin will continue the Ukraine war at all cost (failing to achieve victory could end his own life), Trump is facing a wall in his ill-conceived efforts to exert pressure on Moscow. Will Trump accept defeat when realizing that Putin will not budge, no matter what?

--ed

Update

Trump Displays His Volatile Side

The president had been on something of a winning streak. But when faced with facts and foes that wouldn’t bend to his will, he responded with impatience and disproportionate intensity.

New York Times.

Those pesky Palestinians

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, referred to Gaza as “an inseparable part of the Land of Israel”, also predicting that the West Bank, currently partly governed by the Palestinian Authority, would come under Israeli sovereignty.

The problem for Israeli supremacists is that the Palestinians won’t disappear. They are too numerous to exterminate, and their Arab neighbours have said they won’t take them in, ostensibly for reasons of solidarity but in reality for fear of destabilising their own fragile societies. The last thing Egypt’s current strongman, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, wants is an influx of Gazans clamouring for jobs, houses and a political voice — Jordan, whose indigenous population complains of being swamped by their Palestinian guests, being the example to avoid. Finally, the Palestinians possess a keen appreciation of the deadly intentions of their adversary and something approaching a relish for the fight to thwart them.

Christopher de Bellaigue.

Ukraine News

Russia attacked a furniture factory in Kyiv. They probably couldn’t find another kindergarten or maternity hospital.

NOELREPORTS

‪@noelreports.com‬

ChrisO_wiki:

The 95th Regiment of the 5th Brigade of the Russian 51st Army has come under renewed scrutiny after two of its battalion commanders – likely captains or majors – disappeared following meetings with their superior officers.

'Petr Lundstrem' *) writes:

"[The] commander of the 2nd battalion, ... Yuri Burakov, call sign Sedy ... was summoned by the commander of the 95th regiment, call sign Starina – we know the full name of this man.Since then, Sedy has been missing and has not responded to communication.

"When his wife asked, the regiment commander said that Sedy was a "voluntary deserter".This is the second battalion commander in 5 days to disappear in this way.

"I appeal to the people holding Sedy and the second battalion commander: everything can still be fixed – return the officers to their units.There is no need to make them missing in action, there is no need to "zero" [execute] them, there is no need to do irreparable things.

"It will not be possible to hide this, or to make it look like an accident. I promise you that I will personally go to the very top. Not to the command with whom you are in collusion, but to the people who were previously unaware of your existence."

Petr Lundstrem, Violin (Russia) - the contestant of the international classical music competition

The Middle East doomsday scenario

A doomsday scenario may be sketched out as follows: recognition of a Palestinian state being dead on arrival, the Palestinians continue to be persecuted not only in Gaza but also the West Bank and Israel proper, while Israel engorges itself on militarism and nationalism that drive out the last vestiges of compassion and good sense.

The Arab states, for their part, captured by groups that apply themselves to Israel’s destruction, in cahoots with a rejuvenated Islamic Republic of Iran and cheered on by antisemites in the West, are unable to provide basic services to their people.

More and more brown people come out of the region and into the lands of white people who don’t want them. Pretty, isn’t it?

Christopher de Bellaigue.

With Europe re-arming without the expectation that the United States will help them in their defense, the more Europe will de-couple it’s geo-political position from Washington and become a more independent actor.

This should be a major concern for Russia as it has always operated under the assumption that Europe is America’s subordinate and as long as Russia can steer the US it can manipulate Europe. A truly independent Europe without Washington to constrain it is a significant threat to Russia. A fundamental misunderstanding within the Kremlin was that NATO served dual purposes. While it was expressly made to protect the democratic European counties from Soviet expansionism, it was also made to prevent another European arms race that would threaten to spill over across the continent as it did in both World Wars by keeping European defense within a comprehensive structure.

Given these geopolitical shifts, the Russian position is gradually deteriorating. Increasing reliance with China threatening to make Russia a client state of Xi Jingping, the rearmament of Europe, the increasing cost of the Ukrainian conflict and growing internal fissures within the Russian political hierarchy means Putin does not have the infinite amount of time or manpower that he wishes to project. In fact, the clock for Russia is creeping towards midnight.

@Crymzyn.