Random thoughts on an August day
Will Trump accept defeat?
By using the customary tariff threat which he employs to discipline governments worldwide, President Donald Trump urged Russia to agree asap to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Dmitri Medwedjew answered by threatening the United States with nuclear arms, and Trump responded by saying he is sending two nuclear submarines toward Russia.
A silly game among two braggards, or the world’s most explosive moment since 1945? Who can tell?
There are a few facts to consider. Medwedyev loves inflammatory language and is understood as voicing Putin’s true opinion if unbridled by cautious statesmanship.
Trump is torn by competing urges: he hates the idea to be challenged by a subordinate, low level windbag. Although probably wishing to maintain his special relationship with Putin (Krasnov!) there is no reason for him to tolerate a bigmouthed nobody like Medwedyev.
Being addicted to his preferred media, Trump apparently rates Medvedyed’s threats as sufficiently important for the American public opinion to feel urged to counteract. By moving nuclear submarines (or at least pretending such a move) Trump nobilitates Medvedyev.
What an honor for a Russian blogger (with a remarkable past and a rather modest present) to have moved two foreign nuclear submarines!
So far, so weird. But let's assume that the mentally impaired current US president had decided to shed his “Krasnov” persona and discover beneath it a courageous American patriot who resists possible blackmail because of Putin’s compromat.
A new Trump, following in the footsteps of his predecessor Biden, so to speak. The world watches, torn between amusement and horror. Ukraine's Zelensky is a happy camper...
Why should the world pay special attention? Because there is nobody left who could prevent Trump from a possible folly. He started his second term of office by surrounding himself with acolytes. None of them would stop him from pressing the red button.
Since it is certain that Putin will continue the Ukraine war at all cost (failing to achieve victory could end his own life), Trump is facing a wall in his ill-conceived efforts to exert pressure on Moscow. Will Trump accept defeat when realizing that Putin will not budge, no matter what?
--ed
Update
Those pesky Palestinians
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, referred to Gaza as “an inseparable part of the Land of Israel”, also predicting that the West Bank, currently partly governed by the Palestinian Authority, would come under Israeli sovereignty.
The problem for Israeli supremacists is that the Palestinians won’t disappear. They are too numerous to exterminate, and their Arab neighbours have said they won’t take them in, ostensibly for reasons of solidarity but in reality for fear of destabilising their own fragile societies. The last thing Egypt’s current strongman, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, wants is an influx of Gazans clamouring for jobs, houses and a political voice — Jordan, whose indigenous population complains of being swamped by their Palestinian guests, being the example to avoid. Finally, the Palestinians possess a keen appreciation of the deadly intentions of their adversary and something approaching a relish for the fight to thwart them.
Christopher de Bellaigue.