Is Putin preparing the Russians for an invasion of the Baltic states?
Atlantico: Russia is stepping up its hostile communication campaigns against the people of the Baltic states. Billboards depicting the Balts as “sub-human” were recently visible in Moscow. Are these countries under threat of direct war?
Stéphane Audrand: Overall, Russia's strategy combines long-term planning with an ability to seize opportunities. Across the entire area of confrontation between NATO and Russia, preparations are being made for possible action. This approach can be seen from the far north to Georgia and the Caucasus, where infrastructure is being built up and preparations are being made for a lasting confrontation with the democratic space west of Russia's borders. This strategy also includes a determination to undermine the stability of democratic societies, and to be ready to exploit any opportunities that may arise.
This mix of opportunism and long-term planning, visible since the Georgian conflict of 2008-2009, continues to puzzle some observers. It is often assumed that President Putin acts according to a pre-established plan, when in reality it is more a case of preparing to take advantage of opportunities as they emerge.
When such opportunities arise, a decision is made to exploit them. Nevertheless, it is not necessarily easy for Russia to provoke the emergence of such openings.
As far as the Baltic states are concerned, these territories are recognized as zones of vulnerability by NATO. As for Finland, it is perceived by Russia as a particularly well-armed state with a resolute population. For this reason, it is not certain that Russia would consider a direct confrontation with Finland, as such a confrontation would be considered extremely difficult in the face of such determination. This is particularly true of the Baltic states.
These states, sparsely populated and lacking in strategic depth, present a terrain that is often open and difficult to defend. Despite their considerable defense efforts, the small size of their armies and the vulnerability of their territories make them a point of fragility on NATO's eastern flank.
From Russia's point of view, the Baltic region offers a testing ground for the cohesion of both the European Union and the Atlantic Alliance.
Stéphane Audrand -- Atlantico
Consultant in international risks
(armaments, nuclear, agriculture),
historian, reserve officer.
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