Will Aging Make the World More Peaceful?
The Coming Pax Geriatrica
Aging Societies and Depopulation Will Lead to Fewer Wars
The article is presenting an interesting hypothesis which, however, is not quite as convincing as its author would like it to be.
In 1950, around five percent of the world’s population was 65 or older. By 2021, that number had nearly doubled. Even if fertility rates stop declining and remain where they were in 2022—an unlikely development—the United Nations forecasts that by 2050 that percentage will have more than tripled.
...the aging of a population slows economic growth and necessitates new and greater public spending on the welfare of elderly citizens. But it also has an important unrecognized international benefit: aging significantly reduces the likelihood of war between states.
Sounds good. But is it really convincing?
Demographically older states have thus already demonstrated a reduced tendency to engage in violent conflict. Statistical analyses show that these countries are significantly less likely to initiate military hostilities than are younger ones. What appears to be a universal trend toward war is in reality predominantly powered by the aggressiveness of demographically youthful states.
Looking at some current conflicts does not provide much proof of the peacefully aging thesis. The strongly aging and shrinking Russian population is waging a merciless war at Ukraine with its even faster disappearing population. Elsewhere, China is threatening to invade and subdue Taiwan although China's population is slowly shrinking whereas Taiwan's is still slowly growing. Thailand and Cambodia are fighting over some territory. Small Cambodia's population is growing whereas Thailands population is stagnating.
While current conflicts offer little proof of Haas' thesis, the historical past certainly does. When Hitler rose to power in 1933, Germany's birth rate of 14.7 exceeded the death rate of 11.2 by a considerable margin and was later used by claiming Volk ohne Raum (People without space, H. Grimm) to invade Eastern Europe in order to partially depopulate it and colonize it for Germany. The war and its aftermath altered Germany's demography; some parts became Raum ohne Volk (e.g. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern province)
Other observations made by Haas are also up for discussion, for instance:
Population aging hinders productivity growth by increasing the median age of the labor force. An old workforce is a less productive one. People tend to be most productive in their 40s, when they have more knowledge, experience, and resources than younger workers and more energy and better health than older workers.
Well, current trends in demographically shrinking economies do not necessarily support this thesis. There are, for instance, different ways of looking at Japan -- the textbook case, as it were.
Does Europe need immigration? asked Deutsche Rundschau in 2015 and discussed the case of Japan "The Japan mystery" which said
...if we look at the decade from 2005 to 2014 and compare the long term top performer Australia with Japan, we get a different picture. Measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) US dollars, Australia's per capita GDP increased from 38.900 to 43.200, i.e. by 11.3 percent. Japan's per capita GDP rose from 30.200 to 37.400, or by 23.8 percent.
The lesson to be drawn from this comparison is obvious: demographically shrinking societies may not display overall economic growth but are likely to achieve growing per capita income. In the above case, Japan achieved more than double the income growth of Australia, "the best of the class". However, let us take a look at the military situation, according to Haas:
Aging states with shrinking recruitment pools have consistently had trouble meeting their military personnel goals despite frequently relaxing standards and increasing compensation.
In 2050, East Asia will have nearly 48 million fewer 18- to 23-year-olds than in 2020, a 42 percent reduction; Latin America will have nearly nine million fewer, a 13 percent reduction; and Europe will have over eight million fewer, a 17 percent reduction. Put simply, aging countries will find it harder to marshal the manpower needed to fight protracted, bloody wars.
Well, this argument infers a static view of health and medicine. With rising life expectancy, the old military age bracket ("18 - 23") has become obsolete. Older, experienced troops (Ukraine, Israel) might well fend off large numbers of young recruits (Russia, Hamas)..
....aging populations tend to prefer peace
...tell Putin, tell Xi Jinping!
The revolution in artificial intelligence, the recent successes of unmanned drone swarms, and the possibility of “killer robots” may make the large-scale substitution of technology for military labor increasingly attractive.
Military labor? In case of severe manpower shortage drone warfare might involve women and teenagers replacing adult men, i.e. lowering the age of military service.
Population aging will not completely eradicate war, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates.
Aging, then, is likely to become a powerful force for peace that has never before existed.
Hopefully!
Heinrich von Loesch