Written on .

 Donald Trump as the Canary in the Cave of Ignorance

 

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
                                                                                                           -- Isaac Asimov

   The political right in America has been flirting with dangerous ideas for a while now, particularly on issues involving immigrants and minorities. Lately, with the advent of Donald Trump as the leading presidential candidate in the Republican Party, the rhetoric has gotten particularly insane. To my mind, the most dangerous of those ideas is the idea that democracy means that everybody is entitled to one’s own ignorance, even worse, that, to paraphrase Asimov, one’s ignorance is as good as one’s knowledge.

    If you have any doubt about the above quote by Asimov pick up the following recent books on this issue: Anti-Intellectualism in American Life (1964) by Richard Hofstadter; The Age of American Unreason by Susan Jacoby; The Dumbest Generation by Mark Bauerlein; Idiot America by Charles Pierce; American Idyll: Academic Anti-Elitism as Cultural Critique by Catherine Liu. They may convince you that the problem is real indeed. If they do not convince you, you may have grounds to suspect that you have been affected by the general dumbing-down and may indeed be in chain in Plato’s cave of ignorance and mere appearances and don’t even know it.

   The apotheosis of this strange anti-intellectualism which denies even the empirical evidence of science, which Asimov believes has always been integral part of American culture, arrived lately with the bizarre phenomenon of Donald Trump, who in many ways has become an icon for the millions of people who follow him as a savior of sorts and consider anti-intellectualism a sign of liberty and free speech. The question arises: How did we descend this low? The short answer is this: by the dumbing-down of the general population. Trump is nothing less than the proverbial canary in the coal mine: a sign that the oxygen of liberty and democracy is diminishing precipitously, and not only in America, but globally, especially in the West which has always been proud of democracy’s invention together with the concept of freedom. Alas, rabid nationalism and even fascism are returning with a vengeance. We seem to be back to square one in the early 30s, brown or black shirts strutting about parading their patriotism. One begins to wonder if World War II was an exercise in futility after all.

    But let us explore in some detail what is the essence of this dumbing-down. Let us begin by examining the ecological catastrophe we are currently experiencing well into the 21st century. Time is running out despite the recent Paris Conference on Climate Chance which may mitigate somehow the impending catastrophe but we are hardly out of the woods yet; that will only happen if urgent action follows the empty rhetoric. As it is, the totality of destructive damage that transnational corporations have perpetrated against all forms of planetary life has destroyed the eco-systems of thousands upon thousands of animal and plant species. Of the five times that life on earth has become massively extinct in the past, we humans are rapidly causing the sixth great cycle of mass extinction and the first and fastest due to manmade effects in the form of rising global air and water temperatures and over-polluted water, air and soil. The dead zones across the planet are spreading faster rates of extinction amongst plant and animal life than at any prior time in the earth's known history.

    I checked those facts with my elder daughter who is finishing up a master in ecology and the environmental science, and she assures me that such is indeed the case. The facts are there for anybody to digest if one believes in truth. Destruction of our living habitat and eco-system carries perhaps the most damning, ultimate dumbing-down effect that the oligarchs of our brave capitalistic world of the ilk of Donald Trump and company, have caused. But then they no doubt have laid out their own contingency plan utilizing a hidden technology that can save them when the lights go out on mother earth for the rest of us lowly expendables.

    Indeed, the powers that-be in the United States  have been systematically dumbing-down Americans as a society for a very long time - all by calculated design. Originally the term dumbing-down was used as a slang expression in 1933 by film screenwriters to mean "revising [the script] so as to appeal to those of lower education or intelligence." It actually began as a concept with the oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller who declared that we don’t need a nation of thinkers but a nation of workers, that is to say, we need automatons who enrich the elite class and don’t do much thinking for themselves, or anybody else.

   The most obvious example of how Americans have been dumbed-down is through this nation's failed public education system. At one time not that long ago America reigned supreme as a leading model for the rest of the world providing the best quality free public K-12 education system on the planet. But over the last many decades while much of the rest of the world has been passing us by, it seems an insidious federal agenda has been implemented to condition and brainwash a population of mindless, robotic citizenry that simply does what it's told, and of course the brainwashing commences early.

    As a pawn to the military industrial complex, the US government has chosen permanent war over its own people. One can count a minimum of six major wars in the 20th century, not to mention the minor covert ones all over the globe. This misguided decision to opt for power rather than knowledge and wisdom, has decimated the middle class and created a college educated indentured class struggling in heavy debt to find any means to stay afloat. With an outsourced, now vanished manufacturing base, upward mobility and the American dream have become tragic casualties of modern life.

    After centuries of carefully orchestrated design, oligarchs of the banking cabal have finally gotten what they've been plotting and scheming, globally enforced austerity and impoverishment reducing life in America and around the world to near Third World status, and absolute control. The oligarchs are counting on a dumbed-down population too busy addicted to their video games or watching sports or Kim Kardashian's latest wardrobe malfunction to even notice that a longtime oligarch eugenics plan is already well underway. The fact that a Donald Trump is in the lead for his party’s nomination as the next president of the US speaks volumes by itself.

    But this dismal outcome has long been in the making on many fronts. Over numerous decades a grand experiment engaging in social engineering with America's youth has been steadily working to homogenize a lowest common denominator product of sub par mediocrity, creating generations of young Americans who can neither read nor write, nor think for themselves in any critical manner. According to a study last year by the US Department of Education, 19% of US high school graduates cannot read, 21% of adults read below 5thgrade level and that these alarming rates have not changed in the last ten years. Has anybody noticed that the debates or the Republican party are now conducted with language at the fifth grade level, complete with bullying and clownish body language and vituperations? They are not for enlightenment but for amusement and distraction. They resemble more a circus than a deliberative dialogue.

    The international test results from the 2012 PISA indicate American students are lagging behind virtually all developed nations even more than in the past. China topped all 65 nations while US teenagers again scored at or below average in math, reading and science. That is because the current educational system is no longer about learning the basic A-B-C's but simply cranking out a subclass of work force laborers. Some concerned educators have dubbed the current education system as "limited learning for lifelong labor." That is to say, education has become training for a job and acquisition of practical skills, and consequently it is no longer education educating holistically the whole man.

    But this planned system of a New World Order (NOW) featuring a planned global economy and a planned global education system has been promoted for well over a century now. The Carnegie Foundation outlined its explicit roadmap for absolute oligarch control way back in the 1930's. Department of Education whistleblower Charlotte Iserbyt exposed the conspired downfall of America's educational system in her well documented chronicle The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America. She demonstrates that even national sovereignty gets subordinated to world authority. 

   The heavy focus of public education today is primarily limited to standardized test performance and the proliferation of privatized charter schools complete with private contractors teaching the tests, usurping the authority at all levels from state, to local communities, to individual teacher's lesson plans, to home schooling parents, largely replaced by instructional software programs.

   This lopsided war between fascist run propaganda schools brainwashing a Brave New World youth and the local school boards, teachers and parents battling for their lives to maintain what little choice they still have left with their children is yet another pathetic cautionary tale of what the oligarch agenda is doing to destroy America today. 

    Instead of encouraging the gifted by teaching to their strengths, too often they are responded to punitively by either overly frustrated and/or rigid, authoritarian adults bent on maintaining some semblance of control. The one size fits all cookie cutter system stifles learning, cognitive and intellectual development and creativity, rewarding those who acquiesce and simply do what they are told as good little boys and girls on their way to being good little employees and citizens who are so easily manipulated, controlled and subdued. They become the lifeless, walking dead who merely go through the daily motions on autopilot, too beaten down, numb and/or fearful.

   A substantive quality education should teach the curious developing mind to be critical and discriminating, willing to ask questions, challenging the status quo of preconceived suppositions and accepted dogma. With an educational system that purposely misinforms and indoctrinates young people to respond as Skinnerian rats to a positive reinforcement schedule of operant conditioning, children as future adults are being shaped and programmed to become little robots easily controlled by their oligarch masters.

    Another primary means of dumbing down America is through mass media. If the public is busily preoccupied with the superficial garbage spoon-fed to the masses every single day via television, movies, music, internet, video games that all act just as effective as the most potent drug dulling the senses and the brain, again an enormous control over the population is achieved and maintained. Here again Donald Trump is the perfect icon: politics reduced to entertainment. When asked where he derived his knowledge of the facts from, Trump answered “the TV shows.” With so much entertainment as the modern day opiate to the masses to divert people's attention, these weapons of mass distraction easily render people oblivious to see what is really happening in the world. We are all being numbed and dumbed.

   This too is another form of calculated brainwashing, mind control as well as behavior control that the media as vehicles of propaganda and disinformation constantly utilize. The constant 24/7 sensory bombardment that media puts on humans is one highly effective means of control over both culture and population.

    Currently an incredible near 70% of all Americans are taking at least one prescription drug. Between the multibillion dollar alcohol and tobacco industries and the multibillion dollar Big Pharma industry, these corporate entities wield colossal amounts of power in America, buying off politicians, spending billions on advertising, often times killing people whose addiction overpowers them.

    Rampant drug addiction in US society becomes yet another very effective means of control over millions of humans who struggle daily with their very real demons. The number of deaths related to drug overdose has jumped 540% since 1980. And whatever collateral damage results from those who die as well as those who engage in criminal activity to support their habit, with both a privatized prison industrial complex and privatized medical system, again the only profiteers feeding off the misfortunes of the afflicted are that same power elite.

    The same damage and dumbing down-effects are only added on when considering the detrimental and often lethal effects that chemically processed foods, chemical and hormone injected meat products, genetically altered organisms (GMO's) and pesticide-ridden foods, not to speak of fluoride treated water,  that virtually the entire American population consumes on a daily basis. The masses are poisoning themselves to death with built up toxins in their bodies.

   In conclusion, after this brief excursus into the byways of mass-dumbing-down, perhaps we can agree that what is most disturbing about Donald Trump is not who he is, for one cannot teach an old dog new tricks, but the obvious evidence, that the ones who think like him and follow him devotedly are legions. That spells disaster even for a democratic society with constitutional checks and balances. Will the canary in the cave of ignorance save us? That would be a silver-lining to be greatly hoped for, but there are no guarantees and democracy may indeed perish in the cave of ignorance together with the witless canary. Time will tell. 

Dr. Emanuel Paparella

This article was first published by OVI Magazine

 

Written on .

 

 Deutschlands Flüchtlingspolitik gleicht dem Versuch, bei Hochwasser einen geborstenen Deich zu reparieren.

   Am 29. November 2015 fand in Brüssel ein Gipfelgespräch mit der Türkei statt, Ergebnisse:  Die türkische Regierung hat sich verpflichtet, ihre Grenzen besser zu schützen. Als Gegenleistung sicherte die EU dem Land eine Ausweitung der Beitrittsverhandlungen und 3 Milliarden Euro für Flüchtlingshilfe zu.

   Die Ausweitung der Beitrittsverhandlungen ist ein weitgehend symbolischer Akt, Die Türkei ist durch den demokratie- und freiheitsfeindlichen Kurs der AKP-Regierung Davutoglu weiter denn je von EU-Standards entfernt. Der Zypernkonflikt blockiert nach wie vor die Verhandlungen. Frankreich und Österreich wollen einen eventuellen Türkei-Beitritt von Volksabstimmungen abhängig machen: in den meisten Ländern Europas gibt es deutliche Mehrheiten der Bevölkerung gegen einen Türkei-Beitritt,

   Die EU und die Türkei haben einen Aktionsplan beschlossen, um den Zustrom von Flüchtlingen nach Europa einzudämmen. Zudem erhalte die Türkei 3 Milliarden Euro. Das sagte Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel nach Abschluss des Treffens. In dem Aktionsplan sichert die Türkei unter anderem zu, ihre Küsten besser zu schützen und gegen Schlepperbanden und Menschenhändler vorzugehen. Dazu könnte auch die EU-Grenzagentur Frontex ihren Beitrag leisten.

   "Es ist legitim, dass der Türkei von Europa geholfen wird, Flüchtlinge aufzunehmen", sagte der französische Staatspräsident François Hollande. Die Türkei müsse aber Bedingungen erfüllen, um die 3 Milliarden in mehreren Raten zu erhalten. 

   Wer von den 28 EU-Staaten wie viel der Zahlungen übernimmt, muss noch EU-intern geklärt werden. Die Kommission schlug vor, 500 Millionen beizutragen. 2,5 Milliarden müssten von den Mitgliedstaaten kommen. Deutschland wäre mit rund einer halben Milliarde beteiligt.

   So weit die Theorie. In der Praxis werden wenige EU-Regierungen einsehen, warum sie einen Aktionsplan finanziell mittragen sollen, dessen Notwendigkeit ihnen in erster Linie Deutschland mit seinem Ruf  "Flüchtlinge, kommet!" eingebrockt hat. Käme Berlin tatsächlich mit einer halben Milliarde Anteil am Aktionsplan weg, so wäre das der Deal des Jahres. Doch der Plan von Schäuble, Merkel & Co., die Kosten des Desasters der EU aufzubürden, dürfte scheitern. 

   Das weiss man sicherlich auch in Ankara. Deswegen wird man sich wenig Hoffnungen machen, mehr als  nur einen Teil dieses Geldes zu sehen. Was kann man tun, um Deutschland und die EU unter Druck zu setzen? 

   Ganz einfach: Man verzögert die Umsetzung des Aktionsplans. Wenn weiterhin 3000 oder 4000 Bootsleute pro Tag auf den griechischen Inseln ankommen, wird sich in Berlin irgendwann etwas bewegen. Dafür sorgt schon Seehofer.

   Tatsache: von der Eindämmung des Zustroms von Migranten und der Bekämpfung der Menschenschmuggler ist bislang wenig zu sehen. Nun kommen ausser den Syrern, Irakern und Afghanen auch Algerier und Marokkaner an, deren Chancen auf Asyl bei Null liegen. Warum fängt die Türkei sie nicht bei der Einreise ab und schickt sie postwendend zurück, so wie es die Italiener seit Monaten tun? Auf die Visa-Freiheit für Nordafrikaner sollte sich Ankara nicht herausreden.

   Will Ankara erst das Geld sehen, bevor es handelt?  Das wäre der günstige Fall. Im schlechten Fall kann sein, dass Davutoglu das Geld zwar gerne einsteckt, aber nichts zu tun gedenkt. Warum sollte er auch? Es liegt doch im Interesse der Türkei, so viele Migranten wie möglich an Griechenland und Bulgarien loszuwerden. Warum also die Schlepper bekämpfen, die doch im nationalen Interesse arbeiten?

   Während an der westtürkischen Küste weiterhin Reisefreiheit herrscht, hat sich die Lage an der türkisch-syrischen Grenze geändert. Dem Beispiel des Libanon und Jordaniens folgend, lässt die Türkei, soweit sie die Grenze kontrolliert, keine Syrer mehr ins Land.  Die neue "Das Boot ist voll" - Politik Ankaras kontrastiert mit der ehemaligen Haltung des Premierministers und nun Präsidenten Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, der die Sunniten Syriens wie Brüder behandelte und 2,2 Millionen Unterschlupf gewährte. Diese Gastfreundschaft hat durchaus Tradition: man erinnere sich, dass Syriens Präsident Bashar al-Assad nach der Besetzung des Irak 2003 grosszügig über eine Million irakischer Flüchtlinge als visafreie "Besucher" aufnahm, sich aber 2007 gezwungen sah, den Zustrom der Iraker wegen Überfüllung zu blockieren.

   Die meisten Iraker haben Syrien längst verlassen, sind heimgekehrt. Die Chancen, dass die Syrer in der Türkei irgendwann zurückkehren können, haben sich seit der russisch-iranischen Intervention zugunsten Assads noch einmal verschlechtert. Für die Flüchtlinge bedeutet das: entweder in der Türkei zu bleiben, türkisch zu  lernen und zu versuchen, als eine rechtlose und ausgebeutete Unterklasse von Arbeitnehmern zu überleben, oder weiter zu wandern, vor allem nach Europa: vorzugsweise nach Deutschland, da Schweden ja nun dicht ist. Noch dazu sind die Aussichten schlecht: auch Deutschland wird sich bald abriegeln, glauben die Flüchtlinge.  Und in der Türkei drohen Massnahmen gegen obdachlose Syrer, gegen Bettelei und Flüchtlingsprostitution, vor allem in den Grenzprovinzen und Grosstädten. 

   Kein Wunder, dass vor allem die Syrer immer verzweifelter gegen das Bollwerk Europa anrennen, so lange die Türken sie ziehen lassen. Nur eine wirksame Blockade der türkischen Seegrenze zu Griechenland und der Landgrenzen zu Griechenland und Bulgarien könnte die Migranten abschrecken und sie zwingen, auf der Suche nach einer Überfahrt nach Ägypten oder Libyen auszuweichen. 

   Ob es den Türken oder auch gemeinsam mit der europäischen Agentur Frontex gelingen würde, die rund 700 Kilometer lange Luftlinie der Seegrenze von Samothraki bis Rhodos zu kontrollieren, ist allerdings mehr als fraglich. Jede Massnahme zur Sicherung der Grenze würde die Überfahrt nur teurer, länger und gefährlicher machen.

   Bislang ist ein Wille der Türkei, wenigstens den Bootsverkehr zu den nächstgelegenen Inseln Samos, Chios und Lesbos zu blockieren, nicht zu erkennen. Der griechische Vizeminister  Ioannis Mouzalas kritisierte Ende Dezember, dass die Türkei Griechenland "mit Flüchtlingen bombardiert". "Wir haben trotz Windstärke sechs bis sieben ein Bombardement von 4000 Ankünften pro Tag", sagte er laut Focus. 

   Sollte sich die Haltung der Türkei nicht ändern, so bleibt der EU nichts übrig, als das Abkommen von Brüssel zu annullieren. Kein Geld, keine Beitrittsverhandlungen, keine Visa-Erleichterungen. Das Gespann Erdoğan - Davutoglu versteht nur die Sprache der Härte, die es selbst im neuen Kurdenkrieg demonstriert. Dann muss sich die EU -- vor allem Berlin -- andere Ideen für die Reparatur des Deichs einfallen lassen.

   Oder Platz schaffen für die nächste Million. 

Heinrich von  Loesch

 

Update

 "Ich hege die starke Befürchtung, dass die türkischen Menschenschmuggler Unterstützung von den Behörden bekommen. Vor allem die Hafenbehörden tun so, als ob sie nichts mitbekämen", sagte der griechische Präsident Prokopis Pavlopoulos der "Süddeutschen Zeitung".

 

 

 

Written on .

 

   What a weird question! As is well known, most European countries (with the exception of UK and France) are suffering from shrinking populations. A shortfall of young contributors threatens public pension schemes burdened with ageing baby boomers. A new kind of old age poverty is looming; young people are being told that they will never achieve their parents' standard of living.

   Germany has launched an immigration campaign comparable to Israel's and attracted 1.1 million migrants in 2015 alone. “Slaves for Germany's industry” called them France's Marine Le Pen. Economists see them as future taxpayers expected to fill gaping holes among the German work force.

   In this context, immigration is interpreted as beneficial as mother's milk, not only in Europe.

   Time magazine said: “... the vast majority of the economic literature argues that a more liberal immigration policy would be good for the U.S. economy as a whole.” Ronald Reagan told the Republicans: “Whatever happens, don't stop immigration!”

 

The Cleveland mystery

   Cleveland OH is at the bottom of the ranking for job growth potential among 66 large American cities, only four steps above Camden NJ, the monument of de-industrialization and crime.

"Cleveland is dying," says Jim Russell. "Not only has the per-capita income gone up in Cleveland as the population has declined, it is growing at a faster rate than in Columbus where the population is on the upswing."  

cleveland

    Although Columbus OH enjoys a middle-level ranking for job growth, it has been overtaken by Cleveland in per capita income.   From 2003-12, the Cleveland metro's total personal income increased by about $20 million. 

"Another example of how population growth is outdated as an important economic metric," says Jim Russell. "Population a good number for 1950s economies, a fine measure of manufacturing's dominance. Manufacturing isn't dominant anymore. Neither is population growth. Today, fewer people are needed to produce more goods. The old numbers are out of touch with the economic transformation."

  "For example, the region's rate of educational attainment appears less-than-competitive in a knowledge economy. About 28 percent of adults in the Cleveland metropolitan area hold a college degree, compared to 35 percent in metro Columbus... Younger newcomers are fueling the brain gain. The number of college-educated 25 to 34 year olds in Greater Cleveland grew by 23 percent from 2006 to 2012.

   The skill level of Cleveland's young adult workforce is world class. It ranks 7th nationally, ahead of San Francisco, Chicago, Seattle and Austin, for professional and graduate degrees."

 

The Japan mystery

   Japan's population is ageing and shrinking. Yet, the country stubbornly refuses to accept more than a tiny trickle of immigrants.

"Opinion polls show the Japanese public to be increasingly worried about the effects of the declining population. However, when asked what should be done to secure the labor supply, the top two answers in an April Yomiuri poll were to increase the rate of working women and encourage more elderly to work. Only 37 percent said more foreign workers should be accepted, and only 10 percent of those said manual workers should be brought in."

   International media, especially American ones, have for years described Japan as a depressed economy suffering from two decades of stagnation. Yet, the opposite holds true. 

Japan

japan3

    Production of goods and services is based on three inputs: labor force, capital and total factor productivity (TFP). A declining labor force will raise the capital stock per caput and increase productivity (unless the investment has become obsolete, e.g. a wastewater plant in an abandoned village). Reduced fertility permits more investment in fewer children, resulting in a better educated generation, Better education leads to more R&D investment, hence higher TFP.  In this way, GDP of a shrinking population will rise*), at least per capita, as shown by Japan. 

 Tim Worstall says: When we look at ...things from the point of view of the life experienced by people ...Japan is the third best performing country of those measured.   Even after two “lost decades” life in Japan... is still getting better. Rather better than it has in either the US or UK over the past decade too.

 

japan

   Actually, if we look at the decade from 2005 to 2014 and compare the long term top performer Australia with Japan, we get a different picture. Measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) US dollars, Australia's per capita GDP increased from 38.900 to 43.200, i.e. by 11.3 percent. Japan's per capita GDP rose from 30.200 to 37.400, or by 23.8 percent. 

Australia

australia

Japanjapan2

   No doubt, Japan continues to be a star performer -- without immigration. How did the Japanese achieve this surprising performance?

    There are several possible explanations. Often mentioned is Japan's world leading role in robotization not only at the factory level. Outsourcing of menial tasks to other Asian countries. 'Brain gain' by improving human capital**). Longer working years, later retirement age. Clever use of investments financed by the public sovereign debt which is at the world's highest level. 

   Nothing miraculous, however. Nothing which demographically shrinking European countries could not emulate, if they wished. In fact, an increasing number of countries have opted for no or only limited immigration: Denmark and Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as Italy, Spain, Portugal and France. 

   There is no economic reason***) to criticize them for this policy. At the human level, that is of course a different story.

-----------------------------------------------

 

*)The second and most devastating bubonic plague in Europe which started in 1347 and killed off one third of the population is thought by historians to have reduced the level of malnutrition of the remaining population and permitted a more affluent lifestyle which ushered in the Renaissance period of modernization. 

**) Countries characterized by stagnant or shrinking populations appear more creative than those with growing populations. Japan and Europe are granted more patents and gain more science and economy relevantNobel prizes than India, China, the Moslem countries and Sub-Saharan Africa. The population of the United States, another creative country, continues rising mainly because of legal and illegal immigration.

patents

Source: European Patent Office

***)    Jean-Laurent Cassely of  Le Monde says in Slate: Let's stop justifying immigration with economic and demographic arguments. He explains that migrants entering France don't care for the country's requirements. The migrants do not arrive to repair gaps in the age pyramid. He quotes the demographer François Héran who says that in any case the French population will see its share of old-age people double by 2060 because of the growth of life expectancy. "The contribution of migrants to repairing the pension systems is necessarily limited because ageing is first of all resulting from increased longevity."

"Ninety percent of the migration streams do not respond to our needs but to the rights of the migrants. The social scientists's job is neither to assuage nor to alarm the public about the effects of immigration but to provide a more objective view on the phenomenon."

Also of interest:

 

Jan van Ours 

Age, wage, and productivity

"Ageing populations are a concern for many developed countries, with increasing dependence on the working population expected. Despite this, there is relatively little research on how productivity changes with age. This column argues that while older people do not run as fast, there is no evidence of a mental productivity decline and little evidence of an increasing pay-productivity gap. The negative effects of ageing on productivity should not be exaggerated.."

 

 

 

 

The German Case

For decades after World War II, Germany did not engage in demographic research because of the historical role of this science as a tool of Nazi imperialism and racism. However, when the baby boomer years ended and the prospect of a shrinking population was looming, demography once again became a matter of naional concern. Years of alarmist predictions and projections paved the way for broad popular acceptance of immigration as an unavotdable requirement for maintaining a stable labor force needed to ensure Germany's role as a major economy. The enthusiasm with which Germany in 2015 welcomed a sudden massive influx of refugees and migrants was motivated by empathy as well as by a broad recognition that immigration was necessary and beneficial for Germany.

During the following years, many Germans -- especially in the eastern provinces liberated in 1989 -- had second thoughts about the benefits of immigration. The government responded to popular concern by attempting to reduce immigration -- in lockstep with other European countries -- from a stream to a trickle.

While the monster of uncontrolled immigration was at least temporarily tamed, the objective of maintaining a stable labor force fell by the wayside. Also, doubts arose whether these immigrants from Asia and Africa were linguistically and professionally qualified to fill vacancies offered by the German economy. Only their children raised in Germany were considered fully qualified, involving a generation's time lag until the economy would reap the full benefits from the current model of immigration.

A rather uncomfortable situation which portrays immigration as a very long term investment of considerable public funds yielding limited direct benefits and not resolving the labor market problems. A situation which pleases neither the population at large nor the economy, and favors xenophobe, sovranistic movements and parties.

At this point, a government institute for demographic research issued an amazing study which contradicted the popular assumption that Germany's economy was doomed unless immigration filled the  labor force gaps. Analyzing medium term prospects until 2030, the study concluded that Germany itself was at least partly able to fill the gaps by itself, with its own population.

The study proposes a panoply of reasons why the German population would be able and eager to fill the gaps.

  • The number of economically active people is in itself no criterion; it is the level of qualification and the number of hours worked which determine the supply side of the labor market
  • While the baby boomers will be leaving the labor market, women and people over 55 will  bolster the labor force and "to a large extent fill the gaps", the study concludes
  • Improved health and longevity will extend the working years per person; decades of better education are resulting in higher qualification and with it to more hours worked since the best qualified are also the hardest working group. 

It is, of course, a moot point to ask if the study was perhaps influenced by political considerations, being isued by a government authority. Still, the research seems to support the Japanese experience that growth is possible with a shrinking labor force.  However, to fill the generational gaps, two major policy changes are required

  • a comprehensive and sustained effort to facilitate more and better participation of women in the labor force by alleviating women's traditional family and household chores, and by encouraging girls to opt for "typically male" professions and jobs;
  • abolish all pension age and compulsory retirement regulations (ageism), letting people work as long as they like it und feel fit. Fully active octogenarians should become as commonplace as in they are in the United States. Taxation should be tuned to encourage rather than punish work after passing the retirement threshold. Retirees kept inactive by law or/and tax rules constitute a colossal waste of labor, considering that in countries such as Germany close to a fifth or a quarter of the population is over 65 years old.

 

The Italian Case

Italy has the fastest shrinking population in Europe. Every year deaths ( 633.133) exceed births (439.747) by some 200,000 units.  With 1,32 births per woman, Italy's current birth rate is the lowest since the Kingdom of Italy was established in 1871 Only immigration prevented a more spectacular decline of the population. Some 100,000 foreigners (mostly Albanians and Moroccans) are naturalized per year; about 4 million immigrants are registered as foreign residents in Italy. In addition there is an unknown number (probably millions) of illegal residents. Like in Germany, U.K. and  France, the share of foreigners in the total population could be well above 10 percent.

Few of these foreigners are refugees in the proper sense because Italy's support to immigrants is very limited. Almost all of them are -- by necessity -- economically active. Pictures of young foreigners wasting time by circling inner cities on bicycle are absent. Everyone has a job, and be it begging or petty crime. The Senegalese specialize in fake luxury goods; the Chinese are operating their maquiladora factories producing Chinese goods "Made in Italy". Each nationality cultivates its own sector. With all this "imported" activity, Italy's economy should be booming, according to traditional economics. But Italy is no Malta:  its economy is stagnating since 2009.

Contrary to Germany, for instance, Italy's labor market does not suffer from a generational gap: to the contrary there are more young people looking for jobs than the economy is willing to absorb. In fact, one of the reasons for Italy's low current fertility is the lack of promising prospects. The "father-mother-child" family model is increasingly replaced by a "father-mother-dog" model and by singles. Contrary to Germany, the fertility of Italians continues to decline.

In terms of the labor market, reducing fertility is probably an adequate response to the endemic economic stagnation. Less jobs, less Italians, more brain drain. More immigrants who are tough enough to  reap a living in a deteriorating economy -- Italy is going in Third World directions.

Does Italy need immigration? Perhaps yes, to paper over the demographic decline. To some extent, Italy needs foreigners to perform menial work refused by Italian youngsters who prefer to remain jobless. Women? Their participation in the labor force is rising but still abysmally low. Old age activity? By necessity, pension agers are either continuing in their jobs blocking vacancies allegedly needed by youngsters or finding other legal or illegal ways to continue working.  The persistent youth unemployment is a mirror image of the rising share of the old-age occupation. Both are a result of stagnation. Pensioners are often said to be better qualified and more disciplined than the current generation of youngsters.

This trend is likely to continue as long as Italy is not able and willing to introduce the sweeping reforms, also in education, it has been postponing for decades. Meanwhile, Italy's accelerating brain drain is a boon for better-off countries such as the U.S., U.K, and Germany.

An old mockery expressed by Italy's northern citizens (derogatorily called polentoni -- polenta-eaters) considers all of Italy south of Florence (inhabited by terroni -- earth eaters) a part of Africa (Rome included !) No joke anymore: all of Italy nowadays experiences a migration similar to Africa's. The best educated, the most daring among its youth are leaving the Italy in droves in search of a job, a decent life, a career. Contrary to African migrants they don't have to cross a dangerous sea; all they require is a work visa or, in the case of  EU countries, no permit at all. No Frontex, no border control chases them; no Brussels summit is concerned by their migration, nobody calls them refugees: they are "white Africans" for whom all doors are wide open.

Small wonder that they don't hesitate to abandon the belpaese. Once they have established themselves abroad they will send remittances to their families at home. Many of them will help other relatives to join them, de facto establishing a new family in the new country. This wave of migration is in lack of a better term still belittled as brain drain when in reality it is a growing trend bleeding the country: a threat lurking behind doors waiting for an economic crisis to happen -- for instance Italy reneging on its sovereign debt -- to become a mass phenomenon.

The arguably most useful part of an education in Italy todays is to learn a foreign language. English language schools are booming all over Italy. While the great migration of Romanians and Albanians to Italy is slowing because these countries have emptied themselves, Italy's migration is waiting to happen.

Heinrich von Loesch

.

 

 

 

Written on .

 

The Muslim Brotherhood originated in Egypt. For close to a century, the Egyptian state and the Brotherhood have co-existed, mostly in conflict. Tarek Heggy, a respected Egyptian thinker, wrote the following "blog" published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Cairo. Despite its obvious government flavor, the paper endeavors to provide a factually correct overview of the past and present of what is perhaps the world's largest and most influential semi-clandestine society.

    Over the past four years, a great deal of both scholarly work as well as media analysis of the Muslim Brotherhood has been produced, focusing in particular on its year in power in Egypt. What is striking is how partisan and politicized much of this literature is, particularly since the removal of the Brotherhood from power in 2013. Any mention of the Brotherhood frequently provokes polemical debates between writers and commentators, often falling across an East/West divide. As a result, much of what is published eschews balanced and objective analysis.

    It is against this backdrop that I was pleasantly surprised – while undertaking my most recent research project on the history of the Muslim Brotherhood and its year in power in Egypt – to come across two thorough and incisive reports published by the British Nine (9) Bedford Row. The first report on “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, comprehensively documents the history and development of the Brotherhood since its establishment in 1928, as well as its organizational structure, ideology and method of expansion. The second report on “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power”, discusses in meticulous detail the reasons for the rise and fall of the Brotherhood between 2012 and 2013.

    In this blog post, I will review and discuss some of the most important findings of 9 Bedford Row’s two reports, which highlight many unknown truths about the Brotherhood. It is my firm belief that the Brotherhood never had any intention of establishing a democratic state in Egypt, and that they simply attempted to manipulate democracy to achieve their own ends. The West tends to forget that the Brotherhood abused their year in government to hijack Egypt’s 2011 revolution and to consolidate their rule. Brotherhood figures have continued, to this day, to state that the organization is not committed to Western democratic values, which they believe do not honour the rule of God.

    In fact, the Brotherhood’s sinister objectives can only be understood upon closer scrutiny of its history of violence and its ties to Islamic extremist and terrorist groups. The first report by 9 Bedford Row is key to properly understanding this context.

  1. The Brotherhood’s History of Violence and ties to terrorism:

     Established in Egypt in 1928 to reinstate the Islamic Caliphate dissolved by Kemal Ataturk, ever since its earliest days the Brotherhood has embraced the rhetoric of violence. Hassan El-Banna, the Brotherhood’s founder “demanded controls over all media of communication,” as he regarded theatres, films, radio, popular music, and the press as promoting vice and immorality. He called for strict surveillance of public spaces and heavier punishments for “crimes against morality”. He tolerated and condoned acts of intolerance and violence against religious minorities as well as women who did not wear “correct Islamic attire” (paras 52-55).

     Because El-Banna sought to expand the Brotherhood’s reach as far as possible, the movement accommodated and at times encouraged militant and extremist reactionary elements. In fact, he went so far as to express his readiness to declare war against “every leader, every party and every organization” that did not implement the Brotherhood’s programmes (para 59, 63).

    Throughout the 1940’s, the Brotherhood’s “Secret Apparatus”, a paramilitary unit established by El-Banna, perpetrated serious acts of political violence. Among those they assassinated were a prominent judge, the Cairo Chief of Police and Egypt’s Prime Minister. In 1954, they attempted to assassinate President (Gamal Abdel) Nasser (para 101-113, 140-143).

     Even after its was dissolved in December 1948, the Brotherhood turned to more violence, militarization and clandestine action. It remained in the grip of the Secret Apparatus for decades, embracing the jihadist philosophy spearheaded by El-Banna and promoted by his disciple Sayyid Qutb.

    Brotherhood splinter groups such as al-Takfir wal Hijra assassinated thinkers who publicly criticized the group’s radical ideology. Tanzim Al-Jihad (established by Al-Qaeda’s second man, Ayman Al-Zawahri – a Brotherhood member), assassinated President Anwar el-Sadat in 1981 after he had signed a Peace Treaty with Israel. These groups as well as others linked to the Brotherhood have also carried out terrorist attacks against tourists and religious minorities.

     Equally, the Brotherhood has ties with terrorist organisations established outside Egypt by leading figures within its “international network”. According to 9 Bedford Row’s Report, Osama bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Aballah Yusuf Azzam,  the three founders of al-Qa’ida were prominent members of the “international network” (para 209, 270-313). All three were strong advocates of Sayyid Qutb’s writings, which formed the basis of their justification for the use of violence both internally and externally (para 211-213, 276, 279).

    The Brotherhood’s teachings have been adopted as a reference point for many terrorist organisations that target both Islamic and Western societies and people.

     For instance, Article II of the Charter of Hamas states that “The Islamic Resistance Movement is one of the wings of Moslem Brotherhood in Palestine. Moslem Brotherhood Movement is a universal organisation which constitutes the largest Islamic movement in modern times. It is characterized by… its complete embrace of all Islamic concepts…the spreading of Islam… and conversion to Islam” (para 15). Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks was also a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, as was Muhammad Atta, one of the 9/11 hijackers. As offshoots of Al-Qaida, ISIS, Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab are also indirectly linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. All of these groups have cited Sayed Qutb as an inspiration for their actions.

     Although the Brotherhood has tried to publicly distance itself from the actions of these groups, it played a central role in providing the ideological framework which forms the core of al-Qa’ida, Daesh, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab and Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, particularly takfirism (the elimination of any deviation from what they consider to be the Islamic Sharia), global jihad (to bring about the rule of God by force), culminating in the establishment of a global Islamic Caliphate.

     US counter-terrorism experts have acknowledged that the Brotherhood continues to advocate the use of violence against innocent civilians. Brotherhood members have provided public support for violent acts of terrorism undertaken by militant Islamist groups. These include former Brotherhood Member of Parliament Rajab Hilal Hemeida, who has publicly praised Bin Ladin, Al-Zawahri and Al-Zarqawi, stating that he “supports their activities” and that “terrorism is not a curse when given its true meaning” (para 319). Other leading Brotherhood figures such as Wagdy Ghoneim, Youssef Al-Qaradawi and Mohamed Badie refer to Bin Ladin as a “martyr”, reject the “crusader” alliance to defeat “brothers in ISIL” and advocate the use of both violent jihad against Western governments and peaceful jihad to “eliminate” and “destroy” Western civilization from within (para 263, 320). They also advocate killing so-called “apostates” from Islam, which includes any Muslim person or government that does not subscribe to their radical ideology.

     In addition, the Brotherhood was implicated in providing material and financial support to militant organisations, a fact confirmed by European and US investigative authorities and courts, as well as the UN Security Council (paras 337-352). As a result, it was banned in Syria, Iraq, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

     Given this legacy and ethos of violence, it is no wonder the Brotherhood and its leadership, up until the time of writing, have been involved in a series of acts of indoctrination, intimidation, subversion of the rule of law, clandestine activity and political violence, including during their year in power and during the mass protests against their rule (para 259). As discussed in more detail below, the Brotherhood’s power grab in Egypt during 2012-2013 and the protests it sparked must be viewed within this much broader context.

          2. The Brotherhood’s Rise to Power and Subsequent Fall

     The second report by 9 Bedford Row highlights the distortion and political manipulation that led to Mohamed Morsi’s rise to power. Within a few months of the revolution, the Brotherhood had established a political party, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), which it claimed was independent (although all party leadership positions were reserved for members of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council). The party was able, through false promises, to win a majority in parliament (which was subsequently dissolved by the Supreme Constitutional Court – SCC).

     Reneging on their promise not to present a candidate in the country’s first presidential election, the Brotherhood nominated Morsi after the disqualification of Khairat El-Shater, its main financier, who had been previously convicted for charges of money laundering and financing of terrorism (para 11-15, 27).

     During these presidential elections, a number of challenges undermined the secular/liberal candidates, not least of which was the confusion besetting the electoral map following the revolution, the large number of candidates (which resulted in splitting the secular/liberal vote), the political organisation of the Brotherhood after years of operating clandestinely and subsequently its ability to mobilise its supporters as opposed to other, newly formed, political parties. This is in addition to reports of irregularities, such as electoral bribing, all factors which culminated in Morsi receiving 24.77% of the vote in the first round, thus qualifying for the presidential run-off.

    It was during the run-off that voters truly found themselves between a rock and a hard place. They could either vote for Morsi (and hence the Brotherhood) or Ahmed Shafiq, who was widely perceived to be tied to Mubarak’s regime. Large numbers of people boycotted the vote or voted for Morsi to avoid Shafiq. In spite of this, Morsi’s victory was very narrow, securing only 51.73% (para 32-49).

    Having secured control of both the executive and legislative branches of government, the Brotherhood proceeded to monopolise the Constitution-drafting process. In a clearly undemocratic process, they appointed 65 Islamists to the one hundred member Constituent Assembly, leaving only 16 seats to secularists, 5 to Copts and 6 to women. By the time the Assembly’s first session was convened, 25 members had already resigned in protest of the Brotherhood’s dominance, with representatives from the Coptic Orthodox Church resigning shortly thereafter (para 58).

    Throughout this process, the Brotherhood’s strategy was “to conceal its true objectives … distorting the true intentions of its political platform to appease the concerns of secular and Christian sects” (para 59). This included making false overtures to women’s equality and minority rights, while condoning violence against both women and Egypt’s Copts and other Christians. It also included openly threatening and intimidating political opponents, secretly releasing convicted Islamist extremists, and embarking on a process of “Islamification” (or rather “Ikhwanisation”) of State institutions

    In his less than his one-year tenure, Morsi repeatedly exceeded his executive powers and defied the rule of law. Less than two weeks after assuming the Presidency, he flouted Egypt’s SCC by re-instating the Islamist-dominated parliament dissolved by court order. He replaced Egypt’s Prosecutor-General, appointed by the Supreme Judicial Council, with his own appointee, known for his Islamist leanings.

    Morsi’s power-grab took new heights when he issued a decree declaring that the judiciary was barred from reviewing his decisions, and in particular barring the SCC from dissolving either parliament or the Constituent Assembly (whose constitutionality was being challenged before the Court) (para 97-112). This was coupled with a rush to appoint Islamist sympathisers to replace those who resigned from the Constituent Assembly. This was intended to allow the Assembly to finalise the constitution before the SCC had a chance to rule on the body’s constitutionality. In a mockery of a process, the draft Constitution was approved within nine days. Brotherhood supporters besieged the SCC to prevent the judges from accessing the building.

    Morsi’s decree and his attempt to impose a hastily-drafted, unrepresentative and clearly unacceptable constitution intensified the wave of mass protests against his rule. These protests had never ceased throughout his one-year as President. In fact, a report issued by the presidency during Morsi’s last days in office stated that “a total of 24 million people had taken part in 7709 protests and 5821 demonstrations” even before the final mass protests that removed him (para 187).

     From 1 May 2013, the Tamarod (Rebellion) campaign started collecting signatures for a petition calling for Morsi’s ouster and for early presidential elections. The petition is reported to have collected more than two million signatures in the first ten days and more than twenty-two million signatures by 29 June 2013. This far outnumbered the 13.2 million votes Morsi won in the presidential elections (para 236). Between 30 June and 3rd July, millions of people took the streets throughout the country, demanding Morsi’s immediate resignation. However, Morsi remained defiant, refusing to bow to the will of the protestors, and even turning a blind eye to increasing incitement to violence from Brotherhood members and supporters.

     In fact, during the protests, Morsi contacted Ayman Al-Zawahri and his brother Mohamed, inciting them to rise against the Egyptian army in the Sinai and to compel all jihadi elements to come to the Brotherhood’s aid. Al-Zawahiri promised to “set the Sinai aflame” (First Report, para 328-29). Until this day, terrorist attacks in the Sinai continue to claim innocent lives, destroying many livelihoods and all but crippling Egypt’s tourism industry.

     On 1 July, fearing violence and bloodshed between the protestors and the Brotherhood, the army gave Morsi an ultimatum to resign within 48 hours. Two days later, the army announced a political roadmap, naming the Chief Justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court as interim President (para 263-268).

Conclusion:

     Although the Brotherhood purports to present a “moderate” view of Islam, this could not be farther from the truth. The Brotherhood has never embraced democratic principles other than as a vehicle to reach power through their manipulative religious rhetoric. They have openly rejected the civil nature of the state, seeking to impose its rigid and radical views. These were the views decidedly rejected by the majority of Egyptian people in June 2013. God only knows what kind of violence, bloodshed and civil strife could have ensued had the army not taken a stance in favour of the protestors and against the regime. One only needs to look around Egypt to other countries in the region to sense the degree of carnage and chaos that could have ensued.

     Egypt is now firmly a state that stands up to, rather than sponsors, finances or condones terrorism. The Muslim Brotherhood that once ruled Egypt has intricate links with other terrorist organisations that have not only wreaked havoc in the Middle East, but have also extended their reach to the United States and Europe, claiming thousands of innocent lives. No country is immune to Islamic extremist terrorism, which has at its core the exclusionary, radical and violent ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that also provides moral, material and financial support to these groups. We should not fall into the trap of dealing with each of these groups in isolation or to discriminate in terms of how we treat them. They all share common origins, a common ideology, and common methods of violence and intimidation. It is only through realizing this fact, and through comprehensively addressing the problem from its roots that we may hope one day to eradicate the scourge of terrorism once and for all.

Dr Tarek Heggy -- MFA Blog

 

Update

 

Response to Washington Post Article “Is the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization or a firewall against violent extremism?”

by Ahmed Tareq - MFA

   On March 7, the Washington Post published a confounding piece titled “Is the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization or a firewall against violent extremism?” by Mr. Marc Lynch. The piece seemed to alternate jarringly between political commentary and academic analysis, seemingly attempting to employ the faculties of both journalism and academia to whitewash the terrorist history of the Muslim Brotherhood and portray the group in a deceptively positive light.

   It is evident that the true concern of the article is to attack the US Republican Party and their stance on the Brotherhood, as part of the ongoing electoral battle in the US. Mr. Lynch is clearly seeking to undermine the credibility of the Republican party’s front-runners by branding anti-Brotherhood positions as inaccurate and Islamophobic.  US domestic politics are not our concern, but the writer’s political agenda leads him to wipe the Brotherhood’s slate clean despite historical and contemporary evidence of their serious involvement in terrorist activity, resulting in a manipulation of history that negates the threat posed by one of the world’s oldest terrorist groups. It also leads him to muddle what is a very important dividing line between anti-terrorism stances and Islamophobia, a dangerous mix-up that has implications on the distinction between terrorism and the faith of Islam, ironically strengthening the anti-Islam narrative he seeks to counter.

   The article asserts several times that the Muslim Brotherhood is ‘not a terrorist organization’, a claim that could not have come at a worse time. On Wednesday March 9th, Egypt’s Ministry of Interior revealed the details of the assassination of Egypt’s former Public Prosecutor Hisham Barakat, which was carried out by the Brotherhood. The Minister of Interior explained at length the evidence related to the case, which included the confessions of the perpetrators, who also admitted to belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood and taking orders from the group’s leadership to carry out the attack. The tragedy of the assassination is fresh in the memory of Egyptians, as are the results of the investigations.

   While this is the most recent instance of recorded and verified terrorist activity by the Muslim Brotherhood, it is far from the only one. The Brotherhood’s terrorist credentials are well-documented. Recent attacks and assassinations verified by solid evidence, not to mention a history of political violence, glorification of terrorism, and covert support and financing to known terrorist groups, all place the fact that the Brotherhood is a terrorist organization beyond a shadow of a doubt. The evidence is far too vast to include here, but it has been documented at length in academic works and official reports, including in the report issued last year by UK law firm 9 Bedford Row, as well as the official British government inquiry, which Mr. Lynch counts as a victory for the Brotherhood despite the report explicitly linking the Brotherhood to radical ideology, extremist narratives, and terror-financing. It is thus bizarre to see someone so ardently insist that they are not a terrorist organization but in fact a force for democracy.

   The article also seems to make a great deal out of the fact that the Brotherhood has on several occasions publicly endorsed democracy and non-violence, overlooking the simple fact that stated positions do not necessarily reflect actions, particularly in this case. No terrorist group labels itself as such, and the Brotherhood’s attempts to market itself as a ‘moderate’ group to the West should mean nothing in the face of concrete, documented evidence of its engagement in and support of terrorism.

   Even worse, the article insists that the Brotherhood, until recently, served as a ‘firewall’ against extremism and terrorism, allegedly providing an alternative to radicalization. This claim is frankly absurd considering the countless Brotherhood offshoots, established by Brotherhood members and disciples, that essentially make up the map of modern-day terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda and its offshoots. In fact, the extremism and radicalism which serve as the lifeblood of today’s terrorist groups is based directly on Brotherhood thinkers and ideologues that are still venerated and closely adhered to by the organization, such as Sayid Qutb. To put it simply, the threat of terrorism as we see it today owes its existence to the Muslim Brotherhood.

etc.etc.

Read the full article here

 

Written on .

 

   The latest twist in Turkish efforts to wriggle out of the Russian jet disaster:

   "Pro-government columnist Cem Küçük recently said he believes Gülen's followers in the THK (Turkish Air Forces) downed the Russian jet. "Some of the F-16 pilots are pro-Fethullah (Gülen) figures; this is included in official records. Airspace violations took place 50-60 times. If you ask me, this is the work of pro-Fethullah figures," he said, adding the move was aimed at putting Ankara in a difficult position.

   Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called on the government and its supporters not to insult people's intelligence."

-- ed

More Articles ...