Putin's legacy: two countries destroyed
With his war, Vladimir Putin is destroying two countries at the same time: Ukraine and Russia. Prime Minister of Latvia Krišjānis Kariņš has described how Putin is destroying Ukraine: "Where the Russian army goes, not only is civilian infrastructure destroyed, but civilians are shot at, maimed, murdered, raped, tortured, deported and killed."
Russia's destruction appears less drastic only at first glance. In its struggle against the civilized world, Russia has its back against the wall. Piece by piece, the civilizational facade formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union is crumbling away, revealing the face of Stalin.
Josip Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili was never dead, he lurked in his marble tomb: He is back and pats his pupil Putin on the back: Well done, boy.
In Russia, today's date is 1945, but the world does not want to turn back the hands of the clock. Even China is hesitating. Only Belarus and Syria applaud because they have to.
It is easy to predict that Russia's position and prestige in the world will be destroyed at least by the end of this century. Vladimir Putin has managed to enter the small circle of those tyrants that mankind remembers even after centuries: Hitler, Mao Tse Tung, Genghis Khan, Pol Pot, and Stalin, of course.
In twenty years Ukraine will probably be a prosperous, modern country with large cemeteries and many monuments. Russia will be an international pariah, struggling with billions in reparations, begging in vain for the return of McDonald's, Renault and Siemens. Those who have experienced enormous losses at the hands of an unreliable and aggressive state will be pained for a long time. He avoids such a country.
Whether Crimea ultimately belongs to Ukraine or Russia will be decided at some point by an internationally supervised referendum. In the Donbas and in southern New Russia, it will probably be the military that decides. While enormous Soviet-era weapons reserves are gradually running out on both sides, it is becoming apparent that Ukraine will be able to modernize its equipment more quickly thanks to Western supplies. Ukraine's development into a military power armed to the teeth is expected to accelerate.
The longer a war lasts, the more combat will be the only meaningful occupation in a country . Where industry and infrastructure have been bombed, where commerce. services and agriculture are no longer viable, the military economy remains the only functioning sector when -- as in the current case of Ukraine -- foreign subsidies finance the military.
The longer this war lasts, the more thoroughly Russian bombs, shells and missiles devastate the country, the more surely Ukraine will develop into a strong military power with skilled and experienced fighters. It will slowly but persistently push out the Russians. The pro-Russian "rebels" in eastern Ukraine are in danger of being defeated and held accountable for their crimes, especially in Mariupol. Escape to Russia may be their only salvation. To protect the border region around Belgorod and Rostov from encroaching Ukrainians, Moscow will have to seek peace.
How long Russia can maintain its self-delusion about war is another matter.Heinrich von Loesch "A thousand years of hatred" is the expected result of the orgy of murder and destruction that Russia is currently perpetrating on its neighbors. How many non-Russophile Ukrainians are left? 20 million? 30 million or more?
Never, never, never will they forget what Russia has done to them, is doing to them, and still intends to do to them. Let's say 30 million Ukrainians who hate 144 million Russians for their war of extermination.
When the Turks committed the Armenian Genocide in 1915/16, the 1.2 million (1914) Armenians were faced with about 13 million Turks. By 1927, only 27,000 Armenians were still living in Turkey.
Although Armenians previously made up only about one-tenth of Turkey's population, resentment and controversy over the mass murder remained alive for a century.
In the case of Ukraine, the number of victims is about one-fifth or more of the population of the perpetrators. From this we can see what an enormous mortgage Russia has imposed on itself for the future. The Turks succeeded at the time in killing or expelling almost all Armenians and then ignoring and forgetting the genocide in their own country. The Russians will not succeed in this because there are too many Ukrainians. No matter how many Ukrainians are killed, there will always be millions who survive, who hate and will never forget.