An Emergency Sacrifice for Ukraine
The latest U-turn by US President Donald Trump allows the delivery of American armaments to Ukraine, provided Ukraine pays for the purchase. Trump is a businessman: he will be delighted if the US arms industry does good business by selling to Ukraine (and finances another election campaign as thanks).
There is only one catch: Ukraine lacks the money to buy in the USA. This is where Europe, and Germany in particular, comes into play: the European arms industry is unfortunately far too small to meet Ukraine's current needs.
But Europe has something else that is now just as good as weapons: Money.
Europe is at a crossroads: either it gives Ukraine the money it needs to cover its arms requirements by buying from the USA or wherever, or Europe risks a victorious Putin realizing his dream: the dream of Russian tanks rolling westwards along German freeways, of freight trains full of loot and prisoners rolling eastwards, of a Quisling regime - perhaps with Sahra Wagenknecht - in Berlin cheering “liberation”.
Germany, Western Europe's vanguard toward east, faces a choice: financing Ukraine's struggle or risking Putin realizing his dream, as a NATO gutted by Trump looks on, paralyzed.
OK, OK: the situation is not quite that dramatic. Thanks to France and Great Britain, NATO still exists. Poland is still protecting Germany's eastern border. Brave Ukraine is not yet lost.
But many questions remain unanswered:
Can Ukraine hold out for four years until the next US presidential election? Will Trump be able to continue governing somehow? Or will the crackpot Vance take his place? Or another Republican hardliner?
Either way, as long as Ukraine can fight, Europe is relatively safe. Ukraine ties up part of Russia's military power and effectively protects Europe. Europe - especially Germany - should therefore ensure that Kiev always has enough weapons.
Practically speaking: What needs to happen? Europe, i.e. Germany, should finance Ukraine's arms purchases. What is needed is a
Ukraine emergency sacrifice
in the amount of the currently missing American arms assistance, i.e. around 175 billion dollars over two to three years. That would correspond to around 160 billion euros or just under 80 billion per year.
Germany to provide 46 billion euros for Ukraine
The new German government has launched a fabulous project: it wants to subsidize the economy with 46 billion euros in the form of tax cuts. The car industry in particular is to benefit from this, and growth is to be breathed back into the economy, which has been stuttering for a few years.The 46 billion is exactly the amount needed: for Ukraine, not for the German economy or its ailing car industry.
The economy doesn't need a cent of it, let alone the car industry. The fact that the German economy hasn't grown recently isn't a disaster. Italy has been demonstrating that you can live happily for decades without growth .
But if Ukraine collapses for lack of money, Germany will be in dire straits.. Putin would laugh if a healthy economy including a pampered car industry fell to him,
Berlin should think carefully about what is more important: greasing the palms of the capitalist clientele of the CDU/CSU and SPD parties or showing the Soviet nostalgic Putin a stop sign.
If we realistically assume that Italy and France do not want to pay because of their high national indebtedness, that Poland has already made exemplary investments in defense and Great Britain is paralyzed by the advance of the Reform Party, then Germany will remain as the main payer of the emergency sacrifice.
The 80 billion corresponds to around 4 percent of the entire German national budget.
If every budget - federal, state and local - were to pay four percent into the emergency fund, Ukraine could receive what it needs. If other EU countries also contributed - the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden, Norway, Austria - Germany's share of the emergency aid would shrink.
However, timing is important: the money would only help Ukraine if it arrived in time, for example if Germany would make advance payments on behalf of its neighbors.
It is a fortunate coincidence that Germany has just got a new government that could push such an unusual project through the Bundestag and Bundesrat.
Heinrich von Loesch At present, the EU spends around 1.8 percent of the bloc’s GDP on defense, or around 325 billion euros ($340 billion). To meet the continent’s defense needs, it will have to spend closer to 3.5 percent of GDP, a level that would address current deficiencies in areas such as missile defense, long-range artillery, and satellites. To make up for the loss of American military assistance to Ukraine, the bloc will also have to double its aid to Kyiv, which currently stands at 38 billion euros ($43 billion) annually. Altogether, these expenses would add nearly 360 billion euros ($409 billion) in additional annual spending per year, or 1.9 percent of the EU’s GDP—a daunting figure.Foreign Affairs Although Nato countries have publicly committed to increasing spending to 2% of GDP, the researchers say the ReArm Europe plan could lead to an eventual rise to 3.5%, from about 1.5% in 2020. The researchers assumed a similar eventual increase in Nato members that are not members of the EU, such as the UK. The Guardian