Who is winning the Russia-Ukraine war?
“Without the US it is impossible to change the balance. [And over time] it will push the balance to Russia. We will still be alive but we will pay a huge price.”, a senior Ukrainian official told the Guardian.
The Ukraine war resembles a fight between two mortally wounded champions, each one wounded in a different way. Ukraine is running desperately short of soldiers and ammunition; Russia is facing a slow but inevitable economic collapse.
The world is watching: who of the two antagonists is going to break down first, thereby enabling the opponent to claim victory and survival?
Russia’s problems are less visible than those of Ukraine. The situation resembles that of France and Germany at the end of World War I: France was destroyed by years of heavy battles on its own territory, especially along the Somme and Marne rivers; Germany had not experienced any destruction and yet, it lost the war, much to the surprise of the hawks among its population. (The surprise resulted in a decade of stubborn German efforts to undo the Versailles treaty and, ultimately, gave rise to Hitler. But this is a different story)
Russia launched 273 Shahed drones in one night, the Ukrainian Air Force said, predominantly targeting the central Kyiv region.
A sign of weakness: sending 273 disposable drones instead of attacking with an army of 273 tanks, or else. Still, the figure 273 shows that Russia is making a desperate effort within the limits of its potential to impress on Ukraine and its Western allies that the “21 years” of war it promised to conduct are no empty threat hiding weakness.
The fact that Russia feels it is now necessary to beef up its military presence along the Finnish border is another sign of nervousness and goes at the expense of its potential in the Ukraine war.
Marc DeVore and Alexander Mertens explained in Foreign Affairs that Russia, hitting the limits of its war economy, will be forced to invade other countries and loot their riches in order to finance its excessive armaments and warfare expenses.
War leads to more war, for this and other reasons. In the desperate situation into which Putin has steered Russia, peace is no option anymore. A sad destiny for Ukraine: learning to somehow survive in a permanent war, hoping for Russia’s economy to implode.
Burkhart Fürst