Population growth and the wars in Sudan, Palestine
There are two wars ongoing in areas characterized by past and continuing strong population growth:
-- Sudan
-- Palestine
Sudan
From the demographer's viewpoint the suspected correlation between population growth and war is hardly surprising.
Sudan is 18th among the countries with the highest number of births per woman (all of which are located in Subsaharan Africa, except Afghanistan which ranks one step above Sudan).
In order to understand the link it is useful to look at the birth rate that prevailed around the year 2000, when the average soldier/fighter of today was born. In 2000, a Sudanese woman expected 5.45 births during her lifetime.
In 2000, Sudan's birth rate was 38.10 per thousand people, the death rate was 9.70 per thousand. The population growth rate was hence 28.40 which means that Sudan's population doubled every 25 years.
From 1960 to 2023 the population of Sudan increased from 7.54 million to 50.04 million people. This is a growth of 563.3 percent in 63 years.
It is obvious that over the decades population growth exerted an enormous pressure on Sudan's environment, agriculture, employment and subsistence. The results to be seen are
-- poverty
-- environmental stress and destruction
As far as demographics are concerned, poverty is causing high perinatal mortality: children born but not contributing to population growth data because they are quickly erased by child mortality. With less poverty and better health care, Sudan's population would have grown even faster.
Due to enormous population growth, countries like Sudan (and Afghanistan) became home to millions of young men in desperate search of a livelihood, a social position, a family.
Any war that happens to start in such a country tends to perpetuate itself because it destroys the habitat and the social structures. In the end, the war itself remains the only aspect of life still functioning, providing subsistence for those lucky to survive. The ongoing civil strife in Sudan illustrates the problem. What kind of solution is in the offing?
In every city it captures, the RSF has employed the same playbook: destroy state institutions, plunder humanitarian resources, raze civilian property. Its assaults have functioned as an enormous engine of primitive accumulation that has destroyed agricultural land, displaced millions of people, and effected a wealth transfer from Sudan’s poorest to a class of militia leaders backed by Emirati capital.
Killings, hunger, diseases, exhaustion can shrink the population to a size better compatible with the available nature endowment, the environment, remaining agriculture and the general level of economic development.
A lasting development, however, will only be achievable with drastically reduced stable birth rates. To achieve this requires a sea change in social development and religious habits. A long way to go for Sudan.
Palestine
In several respects, the situation in the Palestinian territories resembles Sudan. Strong population growth happened within a geographically limited space and so-called "refugee" camps. For 1970, the Arab population of Palestine was calculated at 1,821 million.
The total number of live-born children per (Arab) woman was practically 8.o. (Glass)
For 1960, the Palestine population was put at 1.1 million (United Nations). By 2020 it had grown to 5.1 million. With a total fertility rate per woman of 3.44 (2023), Palestine now enjoys a population growth rate of 2.4 percent (2023), down from 4.4 percent in 1990.
Interestingly, birth and growth rates tended to be higher in camps than outside.
Before about 1992. the growth rate of the Jewish population was much higher than that of the Arabs, due chiefly to immigration. After 2000, the growth rate of the Palestine population exceeded with 2.4 percent somewhat that of Israel's population (2.1 percent) which, however, included Israeli Arabs whose growth rate was lower (2.2 percent) than that prevailing in Palestine.
As in Sudan, Palestine's past and current population growth challenges the potential of its economy and agriculture which are by far not as dynamic as Israel's. Emigration to Gulf countries, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt provided a safety valve in the past which appears increasingly clogged. Poverty and unemployment are causing unease and pressure which, like in Sudan, can let military and paramilitary service appear as a remaining and viable opportunity.
Like in Sudan, a lower level of fertility in Palestine could help. The current population growth rate in Palestinian territories of 2.4 percent per year implies a doubling of population in less than 30 years. No good prospect for a poor country and a potential source of conflict.
Heinrich von Loesch.
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