Dossier
 
 
Homo peregrinus:  The Human Globalization   

 Essay:  Germany in 2050

Our neighbors in the South and Southeast:   Europe's real problem

 Unsere Nachbarn im Süden und Südosten:  Europas wirkliches Problem   

   Despite the "Limits to Growth", the world economy continues to grow rapidly, defying the pessimists. How is that possible?  

    The World in 2050 

 

      Politics

 

  ....immer wieder grüsst Mussolini

 

                   What happens to rural and small-town Trump voters after Trump is gone? 

                Chinese camp system evolving into Xinjiang Archipelago? 

     Why Germany Is Not Broken 

     Europa:   Warum wir Macron helfen müssen

     Europa: Refugium für Islamisten

     Die Transformation Europas

T

         America is under attack  Feds say Russia successfully hacked into the U.S. electrical grid

    Syrische Illusionen 

             Italien:  Die Wiedergeburt des Königreichs Beider Sizilien 

         Global Trend: How Dictatorships Can Become Immortal 

Deutschland:  AfD im Hühnerstall

         Parias:  Nordkorea und die Türkei – ein Vergleich

                                                  Fluchtursachen:   Migrationstheorie: was ist richtig, was ist falsch? 

                      Looking ahead:   The Second Migration Crisis: Deportation 

 

 

                 Economy

 

                   Ma perché l’Italia non vuole i migranti economici?  

                       Italia: La casalinga -- una parassita ?  

                     Italien: Die Hausfrau -- ein Parasit ?

 

                                          Ma tanti poveri non chiedono il reddito di cittadinanza. Ecco perché

                      Diamo un’eredità a tutti i giovani

                         Selbstmord ist der beste Umweltschutz

                        Un'operazione di salvataggio per l'Italia 

                      Vorschlag:  Eine Rettungsaktion für Italien

                 Italien:    Mit geschlossenen Augen in der Geisterbahn 

                  The European Dream:   Libya or the Economics of Migration

                    Giovani senza lavoro:  I padri restano al lavoro e i figli rischiano la disoccupazione

                  Gelähmte Wirtschaft    Italien lebt von der Substanz

                           Il sogno della nuova lira:  Finale di partita, ovvero come non si esce dall’euro

                            Perché l'economia italiana non cresce?   Pmi in ripresa, ma la produttività resta un problema

                 Italien:  Wer den Job nicht kaufen kann, bleibt arbeitslos

    Uscita dall’euro?  Benvenuti all’inferno

       Sulla pelle degli immigrati:   Il sommerso in agricoltura

        Statt Wachstum:  Der Charme des fröhlichen Schrumpfens 

           From rags to riches   Eritrea: a rising star ?  

               Zu viele Probleme gleichzeitig:  Italien hält den Atem an

                SZ:  Wie die deutsche Regierung Fluchtursachen bekämpft

        Really... Does Europe need immigration?

                                                                       

           Style
 
           Die Ballenstedter Strasse  
                The web really isn’t worldwide -- every country has different access 
         A Saharan Shangri La
            Why people become vegans 
                              How Armenian-Americans Became White: A Brief History 
 
                      L’università condannata all’italiano
 
                    What Exactly Are Medicare and Medicaid?

                  Islam, the State, and Security in Post-Soviet Central Asia

           Ernesto, der sprechende Hund

       Reisebericht:  Qatar 1960

           Der versunkene Kontinent    Melanesien

             Armenia:  Attitudes Toward Turks Slowly Changing

          Roma:  L’acqua pubblica? Evaporata 

                    Nine Answers To  Burning Questions About Social Security

         Der Flohmarkt: Vertriebsform der Zukunft?

Mafia of the Poor:  Gang Violence and Extortion in Central America 

               Mayotte:  Frankreich zeigt, wie man eine Migrationskrise meistert

              Die Hölle der Migranten  Sie schreien vor Freude

            A Tale of Migration and Rebetico  

             Hundert Jahre Streit: Italienische Namen in Südtirol

                    How to Protect Your Digital Privacy in the Era of Public Shaming

             Die Generation Video

                    A “Persian” Iran?: Challenging the Aryan Myth

               Casaleggios Testament

            Muslim Demographics

                  The Muslim Brotherhood’s Past and Present

                Life Expectancy: the White American Paradox

                Suicide, drug abuse, cirrhosis: the white Americans' midlife death epidemic

  Wie die NSA mich überwacht

    Et in Arcadia ego

           german.pages.de--Deutsche Rundschau,  discontinued but still on the web

  The World Population Project 

   Die Kochnische:   Fleischlos - Mediterran

 

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Three Eurozone countries are currently in an intensive care program labeled Troika, a synonym of the three international lenders that saved the countries from bankruptcy. In medicine, intensive care means that a sick person needs life support assisting the body with oxygen, intravenous infusions and the like. In economics, the Troika stands for a program which provides life support to the economy of a country which without would succumb to its ailments.

The basic idea is that the country temporarily sacrifices much of its sovereignty in exchange for this bailout. This arrangement may work or may not. Ireland seems a good candidate for an early comeback: it hopes to shed the shackles of the Troika by mid-2015 and return with its credit needs to the money markets. Portugal received praise for its reform efforts and succeeded already in May 2014 to borrow some funds in the international market. The Troika finished its work.

The Greek government sounds very upbeat every time its statistics office publishes a positive sounding figure. However, the Troika experts are less happy with Greece's efforts and expect the country to require a third bailout program in early 2015 to the tune of a "low double digit" number of billions of euros. Cyprus is still in deep internal trouble over the reforms imposed by the Troika, with no end in sight.

Thus far, none of the countries has started actually repaying the Troika loans. The first public creditor expecting to collect interest and principal payments is the International Monetary Fund which is forced by law to cut off any country that falls behind in servicing IMF loans. Needless to say. some debtor governments will try to stretch their obligations and those of their electorate to the maximum. Greece, for instance, passed a law envisaging a time horizon of one hundred years for repayment of citizens' tax debts.

At this point the question arises how temporary Troika interventions can be. The Greek government, for instance receives the Troika's benefits while making every conceivable effort to wriggle out of its control. Of course it is embarrassing for any government to be under "commissariamento", as the Italians call it. Of course the government will try hard to maintain an image of sovereignty to avoid losing all credibility among its citizens. But the behavior of the Greek government suggests that the old style politics will return instantly the moment the Troika ceases to keep a close watch over all activities of the public administration.

Entering intensive care usually means a one way road for the terminallv ill. There is no guarantee that all countries currently enjoying Troika life support will some day bounce back to normalcy. This appears more of a psychological than an economic problem. Ireland and Portugal have understood the lesson the Troika was forced to teach them. Greece does not seem to have listened.

The Greek electorate in its majority rejects the reform program and the government which collaborates -- although unwillingly -- with the Troika. Elections are looming for 2015 and the current favorite is SYRIZA, a socialist party which promises to undo the reforms and to renege on the public debt. Apparently many Greeks, including members of parliament and government, seem to believe that the Eurozone countries will always bail out Greece no matter what happens. Since the Troika's reforms only punish the poor, not harming politicians, shipping tycoons and a broad spectrum of wheeler-dealers, the latter see no need to put their house in order like the Portuguese and the Spaniards did.

Without Troika surveillance, Greece would slide back to its traditional mixture of corruption, carelessness and bureaucratic inefficiency. The present type of government would guarantee a quick return to the old days.  Greece therefore calls for the Troika's rule to change from temporary to permanent. Without external guidance Greece does not seem able to participate in a complex Western style system of economy and governance. The choice for Athens is either to accept long term limited sovereignty or to leave the Eurozone for good. This is the choice SYRIZA will face if it wins the next elections.

In a European perspective, the Greek problem looks rather small, and the Cypriot one even smaller. But behind the Hellenic twins appear the contours of a monster, huge and menacing: Italy. Everything said about Greece applies to Italy, as well. Only the scale of problems changes. It is true that Italy has never explicitly appealed for assistance. No Troika delegation has ever visited Rome. Yet, Italy today is Europe's basket case.

Still, the economy is arguably not Italy's worst problem. Its main handicap is, like in Greece, the pervasive unwillingness of the population and its leadership to accept and implement reforms. In contrast to Greece, Italy can boast a reform minded government which struggles to get some measure of progress accepted: A kind of Troika program without the Troika: efforts which appear heroic and ridiculous at the same time.

Current Premier Matteo Renzi blames the past two decades of neglect and laissez-faire for the recession and backwardness immobilizing his country. But it is wrong to blame only the Berlusconi years, Italy's menefreghismo, Italians' disdain for anything but one's own personal well-being and advantage, has been groomed in decades of corrupt Christian Democrat rule before Berlusconi appeared on the scene.

Italians are of course partly aware of what is wrong in their country and society. Many among them even blame themselves for the uncomfortable situation they are in. But when the government threatens to make this situation still more uncomfortable they are up in arms. Italy's economy largely rests on the principle of tax cheating. In Naples, for instance, 85 percent of small commercial enterprises cheat on value-added tax. If the state really tried to collect all taxes, Italy's economy would fold up.

With organized crime being probably the largest and most successful employer in the country, the tax-free black sector of the economy has become huge and keeps the country afloat. When the official economy shrinks, the invisible one expands. Millions manage life by moonlighting, especially those laid off.

For a government attempting to implement a Troika program without the Troika in a country paralyzed by a "not in my backyard" attitude borders on suicide. With all due respect for Matteo Renzi, Brussels, Washington and Frankfurt should draw up a detailed Troika program for Italy to be ready to intervene when the ruling political caste "Palazzo" has got rid of him. And like in the case of Greece, the donors should be aware that a Troika rule over Italy. a commissariamento, is not likely to be of a temporary nature.

 

Benedikt Brenner