Die Kehrtwende von US-Präsident Donald Trump im Ukraine-Krieg hat auf beiden Seiten Verblüffung ausgelöst. Bei näherer Betrachtung entpuppt sich die Kehrtwende eher als ein Krasnov-artiges Manöver zur Gesichtswahrung.
Trump will Waffen an die Nato verkaufen, darunter auch Langstreckenraketen. Die Nato kann sie dann an die Ukraine liefern. Genial: Wenn die Europäer diesem Deal zustimmen, bedeutet das, dass sie - um Trump nicht zu enttäuschen - darauf verzichten werden, solche Waffen anderswo billiger zu kaufen, zum Beispiel in Südkorea, Japan, der Türkei, sogar in China oder im Iran.
Das Problem ist nicht ein Mangel an Lieferanten, sondern der Geiz der Europäer, die keine Lust haben, den Krieg in der Ukraine zu finanzieren. Gut, es gibt amerikanische Waffentypen, die besser sind als die der Konkurrenz, und die Ukraine will sie zu Recht haben. Die Ukraine hätte solche Waffen auch vorher in Amerika kaufen können, wenn sie Trump genug Bargeld geboten hätte.
Aber wie wir wissen, geben die Europäer nicht gerne das nötige Bargeld aus der Hand, sie beliefern die Ukraine lieber mit hochtrabenden Worten und ihren wenigen selbst produzierten Rüstungsgütern als mit der vielleicht besseren amerikanischen Ware.
Trumps grandiose Hilfe für die Ukraine entpuppt sich als Abzocke, als Versuch, die Europäer über den Tisch zu ziehen. Cui bono aus Sicht der Ukrainer?
Trump hat sein Gesicht gewahrt, die USA sind aus dem Schneider und die Europäer können garnicht so viel Geld über die Nato nach Washington schieben, dass Produzenten und Empfänger der Rüstungsgüter gleichermaßen glücklich sind.
Fazit: Die Amerikaner können zufrieden sein. Ihr Präsident hat sich Aufträge für die Rüstungsindustrie gesichert und gleichzeitig das Ukraine-Problem aus der Welt geschafft. Das liegt jetzt bei den Europäern.
Putin kann relativ zufrieden sein, weil er damit rechnen kann, dass die Europäer nur ein Minimum an Waffen finanzieren werden, das die Ukraine gerade noch kampffähig erhält. So kann der Krieg adeternam weitergehen, die Ukraine kann sich in ein riesiges Trümmergebiet wie Gaza verwandeln und Putin kann sich weitere Jahre als Kriegsheld feiern lassen. Oder als Sieger, sobald den Europäern die finanzielle Puste ausgeht und den Ukrainern die letzten verbliebenen Kämpfer abhanden gekommen sind.
Was auch immer geschieht, die Europäer werden schuld sein. Sie werden nie genug Geld bereitstellen, um der Ukraine zum Sieg zu verhelfen. Wenn der Krieg eingefroren wird oder die Ukraine kapitulieren muss, werden die Europäer dafür verantwortlich gemacht werden. Amerika wird Taiwan verteidigen.
Ausserdem....
Wenn Russland nicht innerhalb von 50 Tagen einem Waffenstillstand im Ukraine-Krieg zustimme, dann werde Trump Zölle "in Höhe von rund 100 Prozent" auf russische Exporte in die USA erheben.
Das klingt robust. Garnicht so weich, wie man es von Krasnov gewohnt ist. Zittert Moskau nun?
Im Gegenteil. Moskau lacht, denn die Zölle sind ein Papiertiger, wie hier dargelegt. (Why is Russia exempt from Trump's tariffs).
Heinrich von LoeschThe 50 days is not a threat. Trump is running interference for Putin against the Senate threat on sanctions. Trump’s 50 days got the Republicans to drop the vote on Russian sanctions. After 50 days, Trump will come up with another 50 or 100 day excuse to punish Putin. Don’t buy the BS that Trump is getting tough on Putin. They are on the same team.
Trump's Russia announcement is being portrayed as toughening his stance, but in fact what he did was give Putin a 50-day free pass to do anything he likes in Ukraine without further US punishment as the Senate sanctions bill is now put on hold.
Russian propagandists say it's necessary "to maximize the intensity of Russian strikes" against Ukraine's critical infrastructure during the 50-day period given to Putin by President Trump. That means even more Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians and peaceful cities.
Marjorie Taylor Greene has criticized Donald Trump over his new pledge to send “billions of dollars” worth of weapons to Ukraine, accusing him of breaking a campaign promise by continuing the very aid that Republicans spent years blocking under Joe Biden. “MAGA did not vote for more weapons to Ukraine,” the Georgia congresswoman, one of Trump’s most staunch allies in Washington, wrote on X on Tuesday, referring to the “Make America great again” moniker adopted by Trump’s base of supporters. “MAGA voted for no more US involvement in foreign wars.”
Militarily, the new initiative is more show than substance. The amount of aid that arrives in the near-term will be limited, with much of the new equipment taking months or even years to arrive.
France, Italy, Czechia Opt Out of NATO Plan to Fund US Weapons for Ukraine, Reports Say
Citing budget pressures and a push to boost its own defense industry, France is reportedly opting out of a US-led arms funding deal for Ukraine, per reports.
France reportedly does not plan to join a NATO-backed initiative to have European countries fund US weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
President Emmanuel Macron has pushed for Europe to strengthen its own defense industry by focusing on domestic arms production, per a report citing two French officials. According to Politico, Macron’s stance is a key reason behind Paris’s refusal to join the plan, which aims to spee up military support for Ukraine by tapping into existing NATO stockpiles, then backfilling their reduced inventories by purchasing US replacements. France is also struggling to boost its defense spending due to ongoing efforts to reduce the national budget and cut its debt.
Italy has taken a similar position, La Stampa reported, also citing a lack of funding. “There has never been any talk of purchasing American weapons here,” a source in the Italian Defense Ministry told the outlet. Italy has already provided Ukraine with several Samp-T air defense systems, which are based on different technology.
Earlier, the Czech Republic also declined to take part in funding US arms for Ukraine. Prime Minister Petr Fiala said Prague would instead focus on alternative ways to support Ukraine, including sending ammunition.
Germany has emerged as a leading proponent of the plan. Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently told US President Donald Trump that Berlin would play a “decisive role” in the deliveries
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has named the UK, the Netherlands, and four Nordic NATO countries among the supporters of the initiative..
The little voice whispering in Donald Trump's ear is once again Melania Trump. After his outburst against Vladimir Putin, the American president told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that his wife had opened his eyes. "I went home and said to the First Lady, 'I talked to Vladimir [Putin] today. We had a wonderful conversation'. And she said, "Really? Another city has just been hit,'" the Republican recounted.
Großbritannien muss sich innerhalb von fünf Jahren auf einen Krieg mit Russland vorbereiten, indem es Bunker baut und in die Luftabwehr investiert, so die Warnung des ehemaligen Armeechefs, General Sir Patrick Sanders. (Telegraph)
Großbritannien solle sich auf einen Krieg vorbereiten, indem es dem Beispiel der nordischen und baltischen Staaten folgt, sagt Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. Der Chef des Verteidigungsstabs besteht darauf, dass das Vereinigte Königreich seine Verteidigung ausbauen solle, um sich auf künftige Konflikte im Hinblick auf die zivile Bereitschaft und die nationale Widerstandsfähigkeit vorzubereiten. (Independent)
****
Russland hat Frankreich als seinen „Hauptgegner in Europa“ identifiziert, so der französische Generalstabschef. Frankreich sei Ziel von hybriden Aktionen, die Desinformation, Cyberangriffe oder Spionage beinhalten, argumentierte Thierry Burkhard auf einer Pressekonferenz am Freitag. Moskau hat Frankreich als „seinen Hauptgegner in Europa“ identifiziert, erklärte der französische Generalstabschef Thierry Burkhard am Freitag, den 11. Juli, und begründete dies unter anderem mit der Unterstützung von Paris für die von Russland überfallene Ukraine. „Es ist [Wladimir] Putin, der das gesagt hat“, betonte General Burkhard bei einer Pressekonferenz, einer seltenen Übung für einen Generalstabschef. „Das bedeutet nicht, dass er sich nicht um andere Länder kümmert, es bedeutet nicht, dass er sich nur um uns kümmert“, durch hybride Aktionen, fügte er hinzu.(FRANCE24)
****
Grossbritannien und Frankreich befürchten einen russischen Angriff nach Ende des Ukrainekriegs, wie die höchsten Militärführer ihren jeweiligen Völkern klarmachen, damit niemand sich hinterher beschweren kann, er/sie sei nicht rechtzeitig vor der Gefahr gewarnt worden.
Und Deutschland? Die Deutschen schweben auf Wolke 17, im friedlichen Sommerglück mit Badehose und Gartengrill. (Tagesschau.de : So geht gesundes Grillen) Natürlich sagt ihnen die Regierung, man müsse ein bisschen aufrüsten, der Ukraine helfen. Andere meinen, man solle lieber mit den Russen reden anstatt nicht vorhandenes Geld für Aufrüstung und Ukraine zu verplempern.
Ja, es gibt auch deutsche Warner;
„Russlands Streitkräfte bereiten sich auf eine Auseinandersetzung mit der Nato vor“
Der oberste Soldat des Heeres, Alfons Mais, warnt vor einem Paradigmenwechsel der russischen Aggression. Und erklärt, worauf es jetzt ankommt. (WirtschaftsWoche)
Oder:
Russlands hybride Angriffe auf Deutschland nehmen täglich zu, warnt Generalmajor Andreas Henne. Wie er die Verteidigung organisieren will und was er noch dringend braucht, erklärt der Kommandeur der neuen Heimatschutzdivision. (MSN)
Oder:
„Deutliche Bedrohung“: Deutschlands oberster Soldat Carsten Breuer warnt vor Russlands rasanter personeller und materieller Aufrüstung. Putins Ziel sei, die Nato zu „zerstören“. Der Generalinspekteur setzt 2029 als „Zielmarke“ für die eigene Aufrüstung – und setzt dabei auch auf die USA. (Tagesspiegel)
Ja, es gibt deutsche Warner. Einziges Problem: es hört ihnen niemand zu. Auf Wolke 17 wollen die Deutschen nicht gestört werden. Ihr Frieden ist innerlich und unerschütterlich.
Dabei rüttelt sogar das Volksbildungswerk BILD gelegentlich am deutschen Sommertraum::
Ein britischer Sicherheitsexperte schlägt Alarm: Europa könnte in zwei Jahren im Krieg stehen. .
▶︎ Ein Krieg mit Russland – nicht irgendwann, sondern 2027. Was nach einem düsteren Gedankenspiel klingt, beschreibt Ed Arnold als reale Gefahr. Der Sicherheitsexperte des renommierten Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) sagte der Deutschen Presse-Agentur, die Nato-Staaten könnten 2027 in einen direkten militärischen Konflikt mit Moskau geraten. (FR)
Ein gut aufgestelltes Militär würden auch viele Pazifist:innen nicht kategorisch ablehnen. Dass Investitionen ins Gesundheitswesen, in Bildung und Klimaschutzmaßnahmen hintangestellt werden, aber schon. Darüber, wie das Geld der Bürger:innen verwendet wird, sollte darum nicht nur unter Sicherheitsexpert:innen, sondern in der breiten Öffentlichkeit debattiert werden. Ein Aufrüstungsautomatismus ist keine adäquate Reaktion auf die zahlreichen Krisen unserer Zeit – von Pandemie bis Klimawandel. Denn die können nur zu einem sehr kleinen Teil durch militärische Mittel gelöst werden. Darum sollten wir über Aufrüstung weiterhin leidenschaftlich streiten.
Kommentar überflüssig.
--ed
Russlands Problem mit „Made in China“ - Mikrochips Ana L.-Brown über die Schwachstellen in russischen Waffensystemen durch chinesische Mikroelektronik
Handelsübliche Off-The-Shelf (COTS)-Komponenten sind leicht erhältliche Hardware- oder Softwareprodukte, die für den allgemeinen kommerziellen Gebrauch und nicht für spezielle Anwendungen im Militär oder in der Luft- und Raumfahrt entwickelt wurden. COTS-Teile bieten zwar Kosteneffizienz und eine einfache Beschaffung, sind aber in der Regel nicht so robust, sicher und zuverlässig, wie es für einsatzkritische Verteidigungssysteme erforderlich ist. Ihre Verwendung birgt potenzielle Schwachstellen, insbesondere wenn sie von ausländischen Anbietern stammen, da sie anfällig für Manipulationen oder versteckte Hintertüren sein können.
In schnelllebigen oder ressourcenbeschränkten Konflikten, wie dem derzeitigen Krieg in der Ukraine, hat die Abhängigkeit von COTS aufgrund des begrenzten Zugangs zu Spezialkomponenten zugenommen.
Das nachstehende Diagramm zeigt eine Bewertung von 35 russischen Militär- und Dual-Use-Plattformen, die in China hergestellte COTS-Mikroelektronik enthalten. Davon wurden 45,7 % als möglicherweise anfällig für Fernzugriff eingestuft, was auf eine mögliche Gefährdung durch unsichere Firmware, kompromittierte Hardware oder ausnutzbare Kommunikationsprotokolle hindeutet. Bei weiteren 22,9 % wurde bestätigt, dass sie Komponenten enthielten, die zuvor als aus der Ferne zugänglich oder gefährdet eingestuft worden waren. Im Gegensatz dazu wurden nur 2,9 % als wahrscheinlich nicht angreifbar eingestuft, während 28,6 % aufgrund unzureichender technischer Daten nicht klassifiziert wurden. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass ein erheblicher Teil der russischen Systeme Cyberrisiken in sich birgt, weil sie auf ungeprüfte oder aus dem Ausland stammende Elektronik angewiesen sind.
Russische Technologieabhängigkeit
Der Krieg in der Ukraine hat die technologischen Schwächen Russlands nicht verursacht - er hat sie nur offengelegt und vertieft. Schon lange vor der Invasion kämpfte Russland mit chronisch unzureichenden Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung, gescheiterten Ambitionen im Bereich der Nanotechnologie und einer zunehmenden Abhängigkeit von China. Die westlichen Sanktionen und der Abbruch der Beziehungen zu europäischen Lieferanten haben diese Abhängigkeit nur noch verstärkt.
After examining the wreckage from downed Russian fighter aircraft, a report by an investigative NGO suggests that the Kremlin is still using foreign-sourced electronics for its military aviation, despite Western sanctions.
Where do the components come from?
The IPHR research was able to trace the origin of 1,115 out of 1,119 recovered foreign electronic components from the aircraft.
The identified parts came from 141 companies across the globe – the majority based in the US, with others located in Germany, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
“The list of key manufacturers includes leading microelectronics producers, such as Analog Devices, Texas Instruments, Murata, Maxim, OnSemi, Intel, and Vicor,” it says.
The 221 foreign components found in Su-34s came from 59 companies in eight countries, mainly from the US, followed by Japan, the EU, then Switzerland, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Politico reported that over 2,100 senior NASA officials are set to leave after a push by higher-ups. Those exiting include many in the agency’s human space flight division. And those departures are likely just the beginning. Trump’s 2026 budget proposal includes slashing NASA’s budget by 25% and cutting another 5,000 employees.
Far from the golden age of space exploration he (Trump) promised in January, experts now worry that Trump’s funding and staff cuts could cede American space leadership to a rising China. The risk is so great that every living former NASA administrator joined forces to warn that the new budget could permanently hobble the nation’s space program.
Trump’s actions, both proposed and enacted, are helping to hollow out NASA by boosting brain drain, slashing budgets, and saddling the agency with interim leaders who care more about battling “wokeness” than they do about scientific research and space exploration.
The people of Brazil were astonished last Thursday when official correspondence from the US Government imposed punitive tariffs of 50%.
While laughable in its poor grammar and capitalisation, the childish letter posed serious threats to citizens in both the USA and Brazil. In clear violation of the rules of international commerce, it claimed Brazil was targeted because its supreme court is hearing charges against Trump’s buddy, the corrupt former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The letter prompted derision by many, but rejection by others. Former foreign affairs minister Aloysio Nunes saw it as “coisa de gângster” – a gangster act – and urged Brazil to tell Trump to “lamber sabão” – eat soap.
Two daily newspapers in Belgium – Sudpresse and La Dernière Heure – openly canvassed the question: Is Donald Trump crazy?
Professor of political psychology at Louvain University, Stephan Van den Broecke, answered yes:
“Few economists will tell you his decisions make sense ... Describing countries as 'kissing his ass' to ridicule those trying to negotiate tariffs demonstrates an underdeveloped personality."
“Few economists will tell you his decisions make sense ... Describing countries as 'kissing his ass' to ridicule those trying to negotiate tariffs demonstrates an underdeveloped personality."
Französisches Missvergnügen während der Parade auf den Champs Élysées am 14. Juli, dem Nationalfeiertag
Ein kulturell und sozial entwaffnetes Frankreich. Ein Frankreich, das in Bezug auf Werte und Prinzipien resigniert hat. Zunächst von der Linken an den Islam verkauft, aber durch das schändliche Schweigen der Rechten bestärkt, wird die Fackel nun von der LFI (La France Insoumise) übernommen, die den Antisemitismus zum Nährboden einer Wählerschaft macht, die gegen das Land kämpft, das sie so unvorsichtigerweise beherbergt. Das Schüren von Hass gegen das eigene Volk aus rein profitorientierten und politischen Gründen zeigt, wie tief wir endgültig gesunken sind, während wir vorgeben, dies „Demokratie“ zu nennen. Für Dummies, nehme ich an. Die Rolle einer Europaabgeordneten besteht nun darin, Gaza zu verteidigen, gegen Gesetze zur Bekämpfung des Judenhasses zu stimmen und der Muslimbruderschaft das Bett zu bereiten. Nebenbei auch noch ein bisschen vor der Küste Gazas segeln. Die Kriminalität wird toleriert, aber ich würde eher sagen angestiftet, denn die Alltagskriminellen wissen, dass sie es in einem Land, in dem die Polizei bestenfalls eine Wasserpistole einsetzen kann, ungestraft tun können. Auf den Champs Élysées baut man lieber Mauern und Schutzvorrichtungen vor den Schaufenstern der Geschäfte, als auf diejenigen zu schießen, die sie anzünden. Es ist alles gesagt. Wir sind bereit, Waffen zu verkaufen, um Russen in der Ukraine zu töten, aber nicht den Abschaum auf unseren Straßen. Verstehe, wer will.
Russian deputies have accepted in second reading a bill that would punish Internet searches for content classified as “extremist”, a measure that further increases repression in Russia. The definition of “extremist” is very broad in Russian legislation, ranging from terrorist and ultra-nationalist groups to political opponents and religious movements. The organization of the late opponent Alexei Navalny is thus classified as “extremist” in Russia, as is the “international LGBT movement.
Ukrainian troops near Orikhiv captured the moment of another Russian war crime: a Russian soldier attempting to surrender was shot dead by his comrade after failing to tie him up. Intel suggests Russia has formed foreign-manned units where mercenaries are ordered to kill anyone trying to surrender.
Top Russian University Opens Master’s Program in Sanctions Dodging
The two-year course offered by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow aims to produce experts in international corporate compliance and sanctions risk management.
President Donald Trump is in the midst of a temper tantrum after the Wall Street Journal on Thursday night published the contents of a lewd birthday note he sent to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in 2003. The note included a doodle of a naked woman and concluded, "Happy Birthday—and may every day be another wonderful secret.”
Trump has so far written four unhinged Truth Social posts trying to deny that he ever wrote the note to Epstein, who was charged with child sex trafficking in 2019 but allegedly committed suicide in prison before he faced trial. Before that, Epstein was convicted in 2008 for soliciting prostitution of a minor.
Epstein counted as his friends a number of powerful men, including Trump. In 2002, Trump raved about their friends to New York magazine. “I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy,” Trump said. “He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”
After the Wall Street Journal’s report went live, Trump //truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114871422727186590" >claimed online that the birthday note is "FAKE" and threatened to sue the news outlet for publishing the note's contents.
Then the //truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114871752316281496"
claimed the note could not be real, writing in another batshit-crazy Truth Social post that the note is "not the way I talk."
"Also, I don’t draw pictures. I told Rupert Murdoch it was a Scam, that he shouldn’t print this Fake Story. But he did, and now I’m going to sue his ass off, and that of his third rate newspaper," Trump wrote.
However, Trump does draw pictures. A number of his doodles of the New York City skyline have been auctioned off for charity—including one that sold for $29,000 and another that sold for $16,000 in 2017.
Britain is hopelessly unprepared for war – we must change or face destruction
Global conflicts are a marathon, not a sprint. The Cold War lasted 44 years; the Second World War six; and the conflict in the Middle East started long before the creation of the modern state of Israel. The West’s great pathology is our limited attention span, our propensity to fall foul of crisis amnesia. We are too wealthy, too comfortable, too coddled, too convinced that wars are an aberration, unlike our much tougher forebears or today’s Israelis or Ukrainians. After 1,241 days of combat, the West needs to shake off its Ukraine war fatigue. Moscow continues to inflict destruction and murder upon Ukraine’s civilian populations. Vladimir Putin remains not just a fascistic thug but, in a world where that term keeps being abused, a war criminal. The casualties continue to mount. Nothing is really improving. Russia remains one of the West’s principal enemies, and its expansionism, imperialism and global spy machine are a major threat to our way of life. The Ukrainian flags that used to adorn many middle class homes in the aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s wholesale invasion in February 2022 have long since disappeared, but it remains as important as ever for Britain and the West to support Volodymyr Zelensky’s fight for freedom. It is apposite, therefore, that the security services have just exposed dozens of Russian spies who targeted Sergei Skripal’s daughter and mounted a series of attacks on Britain. The latest details serve as a timely reminder of the threat we face, including a “sustained campaign of malicious cyber activity”, secret bombings and arson attacks on multiple targets in the UK and Europe. The best news on this front is that Donald Trump seems to be finally seeing sense. His ludicrous appeasement of Putin appears to be ending. For years, he has treated the Russian dictator with far too much respect, partly because he hated Ukraine because of its connection to the Biden family, and partly because he exhibits a weird esteem for strong men. The Washington Post reports that, in a call with Zelensky this month, Trump said that Ukraine needed to stop playing defense and switch instead to offense. Trump separately cited the influence of his wife Melania, the first lady, who confronted him with Russia’s latest bombings when he wrongly thought he was making progress negotiating with Putin. We must hope that Trump delivers on his newly tough rhetoric, and that he does a lot more to arm and resupply Ukraine. There is one significant problem, however: an economically weak West will never have the capacity to defeat its enemies. We need a booming economy to create the resources to produce weapons and munitions and bolster our armed forces. America has problems on this front, with a dangerously large budget deficit, but remains wealthy, technologically advanced and entrepreneurial enough to cope for now.
The UK and Western Europe are in a much worse place: our descent into long-term stagnation and, increasingly, fiscal meltdown are a great threat to national security. We need to stand up to the Russians – but for that, we need to urgently reboot our economies and societies.
Teenagers are helping Russia build Shahed suicide drones as Vladimir Putin ramps up production at a major factory in Tatarstan. The Yelabuga production facility, the largest of its kind in the world, is spearheading efforts to stockpile the weapons to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences with mass aerial bombardments.The footage, recorded by Zvezda, the Russian defence ministry’s TV channel, is the first detailed look inside the plant.Students and staff are shown on the production line constructing row after row of matt black “Geran-2” drones, the Russian-built version of the Iranian-designed Shahed 136. Teenagers are reportedly invited to the plant after finishing 9th grade at 15 years old, and most come from the nearby technical college.
A Ukraine armed with hundreds or even thousands of long-range cruise missiles—as missile expert Fabian Hoffmann outlines as a post-conflict deterrent arsenal—would, from Russia's perspective, pose a permanent strategic threat that would make peaceful coexistence impossible.
In such a scenario, Moscow could conclude that only the complete military end of Ukrainian sovereignty would guarantee its own security interests in the long term.
The development of advanced missile capabilities, actually intended as a protective shield, could thus prove to be a historical catalyst that motivates Russia to escalate militarily until Ukrainian autonomy is ended.
The Ukraine Revovery Conference -- URC2025 -- is taking place in Rome. The U.S. will take part in a Ukraine coalition of the willing meeting for the first time in Rome.
The so-called 'coalition of the willing' is a group of countries that plan to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. It was established earlier this year and is led by France and Britain. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the launch of a European fund aimed at mobilising private investment for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The EU today announced a new €2.3 billion package of agreements signed with international and bilateral public financial institutions under the Ukraine Investment Framework.
Creating a Ukraine Economic Recovery Executive may sound like a mundane and bureaucratic exercise. But in reality, it is all about leadership. For over three years, no one has taken charge of supporting Ukraine’s economic recovery. Meloni can finally change that.
In addition to chairing the URC, Prime Minister Meloni has the relationships necessary to pull this together. She has a warm relationship with US President Trump. Her April visit to Kyiv, followed by her engagement with President Zelenskyy and renewed support for a Vatican-hosted peace process, signals her commitment to both diplomacy and reconstruction. (Kurt Volker)
Never, at least in this century, have leaders of important countries jointly engaged in such an exercise of supreme absurdity: URC2025. To be sure: they are all adults, elected leaders of their countries and institutions, braving Rome's sweltering summer heat, to achieve what?
A grandiose plan for rebuilding a country about to be destroyed and swallowed by a powerful neighbor. As Kiev is burning under a hail of Russian drones and missiles, with desperate and exhausted people hiding underground, the circus in Rome is celebrating billions of Euros promised to rebuild what? A country led waste by Russian artillery and bombs, with a population about to be annihilated by a vengeful and cruel enemy. and possibly to be replaced by immigrants from the Russian Far East and South (Buryats, Yakuts, Tuvans)?
The Rome circus is sure to amuse Moscow and spur ideas on how to harness European billions to the reconstruction of Novorossiya, the sequel to the former Ukraine.
What is supposed to happen to the Ukrainians? Perhaps this:
-- one third dead;
-- one third fled to Central and Western Europe;
-- one third remaining to be thoroughly russified and mixed with the newcomers.
The Russian leader is convinced that Moscow’s battlefield superiority is growing, and that Ukraine’s defenses may collapse in the coming months, according to people close to the Kremlin.
Putin is continuing his offensive in Ukraine with great determination and brutality, despite the recent annoyance of US President Donald Trump. The New York Times claims to have learned that the Kremlin leader assumes that the military situation will develop in his favor in the coming days and weeks. What's more, Putin apparently assumes that the Ukrainian lines of defense could collapse in the coming months.
Russia will be able to routinely launch over 1,000 drones per strike package by Fall 2025, echoing a recent warning from Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Major Robert Brovdi that Russia could escalate its strike packages to include over 1,000 Shahed-type drones per day.[7] Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy "Flash" Beskrestnov estimated on June 20 that Russia has increased Shahed production sevenfold and forecasted that Russian strike packages may soon incorporate up to 800 Shaheds — a forecast that is in line with the July 8 to 9 Russian strike package.[8] ISW previously reported that Russia is significantly expanding its long-range drone production capabilities for modified Geran-2 drones (the Russian-made analogue of the Iranian-origin Shahed-136 drones), including by opening production lines with companies in the People's Republic of China (PRC).[9]
The continued increase in the size of strike packages is likely intended to support Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian morale in the face of constant Russian aggression.
Hubris In The Kremlin: Vladimir Putin Is Underestimating The West Again
Vladimir Putin is convinced his country is strong enough to secure total victory in Ukraine. But the Russian leader is forgetting two crucial things about the current geographic dynamic.
TURIN — Is he about to make the same mistake he made three years ago? In February 2022, Vladimir Putin ultimately decided to invade Ukraine only after convincing himself that neither the United States nor the European Union would do anything to thwart his plans.
There was every reason for him to believe so: the Americans didn’t show him the slightest sign that they would react, and the Europeans — in any case duly informed by Washington of the significant mass of Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine — did not want to be convinced of the reality of the danger.
“They won’t do anything, I can go,” the Russian president appeared to tell himself. He was of course completely mistaken about the strength and speed with which the West would rush to Kyiv’s defense.
That blindness has cost him and Russia dearly. The United States immediately delivered weapons to Ukraine. The Europeans were even more reactive, and quickly began to equip themselves with a common defense system.
On the ground, the only real change Putin managed to impose was the formal annexation of territories formerly controlled by pro-Russian secessionist movements. His navy has been decimated in the Black Sea, and after the strong stimulus of increased military spending, his economy is now showing serious signs of difficulty.
Toll of aggression
For Putin, the toll of this aggression has ultimately been catastrophic. And yet he has now refused the hand Donald Trump extended to him. The American president was willing to recognize the annexation of Crimea, to admit the fait accompli of the integration of Donbas into the Russian Federation, to cut off all aid to Ukraine, and to close the doors of the Atlantic Alliance to Kyiv.
Trump aimed unusually sharp criticism at Vladimir Putin, telling a cabinet meeting he was getting increasingly frustrated with the Russian leader: “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
On Thursday, Russian launched another 400 drones and 18 missiles on Ukraine in an “an obvious build-up of terror,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Moscow’s sustained assault is now injecting new urgency into questions surrounding Washington’s commitment to defending Kyiv. Just when he was losing ground, Washington offered Putin the chance to save face… And what did he do? He refused. His demands remain maximalist. He wants the demilitarization of Ukraine and the replacement of Volodymyr Zelensky with one of his own men. He wants to secure an indisputable victory that will allow him to establish a protectorate over what was once the empire of the tsars, and by doing so, he wants to intimidate the whole of Europe.
BERLIN, July 11 (Reuters) - NATO will need more long-range missiles in its arsenal to deter Russia from attacking Europe because Moscow is expected to increase production of long-range weapons, a U.S. Army general told Reuters.
Russia's effective use of long-range missiles in its war in Ukraine has convinced Western military officials of their importance for destroying command posts, transportation hubs and missile launchers far behind enemy lines.
"The Russian army is bigger today than it was when they started the war in Ukraine," Major General John Rafferty said in an interview at a U.S. military base in Wiesbaden, Germany.
"And we know that they're going to continue to invest in long-range rockets and missiles and sophisticated air defences. So more alliance capability is really, really important."
The war in Ukraine has underscored Europe's heavy dependence on the United States to provide long-range missiles, with Kyiv seeking to strengthen its air defences.
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Si le gel des avoirs de l’IESH, l’institut de formation à l’arabe et à la théologie musulmane situé à Saint-Léger-de-Fougeret, dans la Nièvre, a été très médiatisé à la mi-juin, l’organisme n’est pas le seul à être dans le viseur du ministère de l’Intérieur. Selon les informations de Libération, au moins une douzaine d’autres structures, notamment des maisons d’édition, ou personnalités sont également concernées par des mesures de gel des avoirs, publiées au Journal officiel, depuis début juin.
Si l’Institut européen des sciences humaines (IESH) a reçu dans la foulée la notification d’un projet de dissolution, il est, pour le moment, impossible de savoir si c’est le cas aussi des autres entités musulmanes dans le collimateur des autorités. «S’agissant de procédures encore en cours, nous ne souhaitons pas communiquer à ce stade», a très sobrement répondu le ministère de l’Intérieur, après plusieurs sollicitations.
Former USAID and State Department officials worried about the future of democracy in America say they’re actively organizing to resist Trump, inside and outside of government.
Some of the democracy-building experts President Donald Trump fired this year from the U.S. Agency for International Development and the State Department are now reapplying the skills and knowledge they built up over decades to undermine Trump’s power.
For years, these officials were stationed across the globe actively supporting opposition movements in autocratic nations. Now they’ve got time, a network of former colleagues and a growing sense of moral indignation.
The community is composed of diplomats and human rights activists who were once on the U.S. government payroll encouraging Latin American dissidents to fight dictators and supporting African independence movements. They were involved to varying degrees with an ultimately successful uprising in the Middle East.
Some have found post-government work in academia and nonprofits. Others are still looking for jobs. Several have begun moonlighting as strategic advisers to American activists, protest organizers and federal employees willing to engage in civil disobedience.
DemocracyAID is the brainchild of Danielle Reiff, another former USAID diplomat who retired from government work in late 2024. As Trump targeted her former agency this year, she started a group chat on the encrypted app Signal to “keep the community together.”
“We started to have really robust, good conversations, and we realized this was not going to be a quick incident. We really needed to start organizing for the longer haul,” she told NOTUS.
The focus quickly shifted from salvaging the foreign assistance infrastructure to redeploying inside the United States. Reiff and Tucci joined forces, held dozens of meetings, sketched out a general structure and split it up into working groups that concentrate on separate missions like communications and training. They now have 200 volunteers and an Instagram account, @friendsofUSAID, with over 88,000 followers. A recent post shared “5 ways to keep up the momentum” of last month’s “No Kings” protests.
Reiff said that some of the training sessions are “just letter writing: how to write op-eds to a local newspaper for a local story.”
“We’re democracy officers at the end of the day. We’re still in a strategic planning process. We’ve got a lot of different irons in the fire,” she told NOTUS.
Deputy White House press secretary Anna Kelly attacked the effort in a statement to NOTUS. “It is inherently undemocratic for unelected bureaucrats to undermine the duly elected President of the United States and the agenda he was given a mandate to implement,” she said.
“For all of us who are conflict experts, everything is blinking bright red. We’re well beyond early-warning signs here in the U.S.,” said one person who spoke to NOTUS on condition of anonymity.
This government, even if it weren’t populated by the biggest morons on Earth, cannot do what it is threatening to do,” they said.
