Per ridurre l’evasione dell’Iva, va limitato l’uso del contante. Ma come? Si potrebbe proporre alle famiglie di ritirare solo una piccola somma ogni mese, effettuando la maggior parte dei pagamenti con strumenti tracciabili. Il premio sarebbe una detrazione del 3 per cento. I guadagni per lo Stato.

Iva: la grande evasione

   Gran parte dell’evasione dell’Iva, e di conseguenza di altre tasse, proviene da un utilizzo abnorme del contante, che rende possibili i pagamenti in nero. Nel 2013 l’evasione Iva ammontava a 47,5 miliardi di euro su 141,5, un terzo del totale. Per contrastare l’evasione Iva, si studiano perciò misure che limitino l’uso del contante, da sostituire con strumenti tracciabili.

   Le misure suggerite sono essenzialmente quattro: tassare il prelievo di contante; ridurre l’Iva per i pagamenti tracciati; detrarre tutti gli acquisti del consumatore, come per i medicinali; limitare il contante nel singolo acquisto.

Nessuna di queste sembra convincente. La prima, perché è impossibile, nel breve periodo, eliminare totalmente il contante, per motivi pratici e abitudini radicate. La seconda, perché l’unico modo per risultare conveniente, rispetto alla frode, sarebbe di detrarre del tutto l’Iva. La terza, perché, se applicata a tutte le spese, sarebbe molto macchinosa. Senza evitare che, per alcune, il cittadino possa spendere in nero. La quarta, perché difficile da controllare.

   Vediamo un approccio diverso, senza focalizzarsi sulla singola transazione, ma considerando tutte quelle eseguite dal contribuente in un anno fiscale.

Famiglie con contante limitato

   La famiglia media italiana spende circa 2.500 euro al mese, 30mila euro all’anno.
La proposta è di incentivare le famiglie a ritirare contante per un massimo di 500 euro al mese, all’anno 6mila euro, per le piccole spese giornaliere. Le famiglie che accettano questo vincolo godranno dei benefici previsti, per tutte le altre non cambierà nulla.

   Qual è il beneficio? È una detrazione del 3 per cento (ma potrebbe essere anche il 5 per cento) di quanto viene speso in modo tracciabile: non solo attraverso le carte, dunque, ma anche bonifici, Mav, Rav, assegni e Rid.

   Mediamente una famiglia italiana virtuosa spenderà 24mila euro con questi mezzi e 6mila in contanti. Dai 24mila bisogna però levare le spese che, anche se tracciate, sono indirizzate allo Stato (tasse e multe) e i trasferimenti (assegni o bonifici) indirizzati a privati, ad esempio familiari. Diciamo altri 4mila euro anno. La famiglia virtuosa perciò spenderà, in modo tracciabile e detraibile, 20mila euro all’anno e avrà in detrazione, in dichiarazione dei redditi, mediamente 600 euro, se la detrazione è del 3 per cento (mille se è del 5 per cento)

   Le detrazioni tuttavia si applicano ai singoli, e dunque il principio descritto va a loro riportato. Il limite per un single potrebbe essere di 400 euro mese, per una coppia di 600. Il limite per la coppia è ovvio, altrimenti sarebbe facile aggirare la norma: si potrebbe avere un coniuge virtuoso e l’altro che invece ritira contante e paga in nero.

   Il limite del contante è mensile e viene sanzionato perdendo il diritto alla detrazione, anche se viene superato in un solo mese, perché potrebbe essere quello in cui si consuma la frode.

   Perché la detrazione si applica su tutte le transazioni complessivamente? Sulla singola transazione è impossibile essere più convenienti della possibile frode, mentre su un complesso di pagamenti, generalmente regolari, non vale la pena perdere i benefici.

   In alcuni casi, la famiglia potrebbe comunque trovare non conveniente il comportamento virtuoso, ad esempio se effettua una spesa importante: su una ristrutturazione di 50mila euro, pagando in nero, potrebbe evaderne 5mila. Tuttavia per queste spese sono già previsti incentivi generosi che portano il contribuente a eseguire un pagamento tracciabile. E anzi, si potrebbe pensare di escludere dal beneficio questo tipo di spese.

   La misura funziona senza che il cittadino faccia niente: se rispetta il limite sul contante acquisisce automaticamente la detrazione, se non lo rispetta la perde.
Le banche invece dovranno fare qualcosa: trasmettere ogni mese all’Agenzia delle entrate l’importo totale speso elettronicamente da ogni cittadino e quello ritirato in contante. L’Agenzia delle entrate farà le verifiche sui codici fiscali dei cittadini e su quelli di una famiglia.

   Il costo della misura è proporzionale al numero dei cittadini che decidono di adottarla. Il suo costo massimo è di circa 15 miliardi con detrazione del 3 per cento (25 milioni di famiglie per 600 euro), circa 25 miliardi con detrazione del 5 per cento.

   È possibile aggirare la norma? Sì.

  1. a) Con qualche salto mortale, la famiglia che ritira 600 euro al mese in contanti, può costruire una riserva da spendere in nero e avere comunque diritto alla detrazione.
  2. b) Ci potrebbero essere persone che rinunciano alla detrazione, per tornaconto, o anche solo per favorire qualcuno. I trasferimenti a privati sono ammessi e le cifre non vengono conteggiate per le detrazioni: la frode ci sarebbe qualora il beneficiario ritirasse l’importo in contanti e lo restituisse al mittente per spese in nero.

   Rimane, infine, una forte componente di contante circolante che non rientra nel circuito bancario e utilizzabile per operazioni in nero.

Guadagni per lo Stato

   Si possono trarre conclusioni quantitative sugli effetti di questa norma? Ipotizziamo che la metà delle famiglie italiane, circa 12,5 milioni, diventi virtuosa e applichi la norma. Con un rimborso di 600 euro medi a famiglia, il costo per lo Stato sarebbe di 7,5 miliardi (12,5 miliardi se il rimborso fosse di mille euro).

   Quanto si ridurrebbe l’evasione dell’Iva? Se le 12,5 milioni di famiglie rispecchiassero perfettamente la composizione sociale della società, l’evasione si ridurrebbe della metà, circa 24 miliardi, con un guadagno per lo Stato di 16 miliardi con detrazione del 3 per cento e di circa 11 con detrazione del 5 per cento.

   Applichiamo a questi calcoli un fattore di correzione del 30 per cento, per comportamenti scorretti e per un eventuale sbilanciamento del campione verso i virtuosi. Lo Stato ci guadagnerebbe sempre: circa 11 miliardi con detrazione al 3 per cento, quasi 8 miliardi con detrazione al 5 per cento. Senza contare che l’emersione dell’Iva porterebbe a quella di altre tasse, come Irpef, Ires, Irap, contributi.

Nuccio Pellicanò -- lavoce.info

 

 Bundesinnenminister Thomas de Maizière (CDU) warnt vor einer Schleuserorganisation, die Afghanen nach Deutschland bringt. Bei seinen Analysen der Vorgänge auf den Fluchtrouten habe der deutsche Auslandsgeheimdienst in Afghanistan „eine hochprofessionelle Schleuserstruktur ausgemacht, deren Netzwerk über die Türkei bis nach Griechenland, Italien und Frankreich reicht“. Die Behörden glauben, dass zahlreiche Flüchtlinge von kriminellen Gruppen nach Deutschland gebracht werden. Bei den Verdächtigen soll es sich unter anderem gerüchtweise um libanesische Großfamilien handeln. Aus Afghanistan berichtet  der Guardian.

 

   After midnight, the sprawling outskirts of Kabul are enveloped in darkness, but the Ahmad Shah Baba bus station lights up like a small town in the night.

   In the cheap neon light from a cluster of hotels, rows of dilapidated buses wait, engines running, for their 2am departure. At a recent visit, inside the buses, the mood was solemn. All passengers were men. Many were teenagers, none looked older than 35. Few were willing to share details about their upcoming trip, though it was obvious.

   Their destination was Nimruz, Afghanistan’s southern desert province bordering Iran and Pakistan. Every night, about 60 buses leave Kabul for Nimruz, according to ticket sellers at the terminal. For the poorest of the many Afghans leaving their country, this is where the journey to Europe begins.

   And for many, “Europe” has become synonymous with one country – Germany. Although that destination may now be harder to reach after the German government announced that it was tightening up its refugee policy.

   “I’m going to Germany. There are no jobs here, and security gets worse day by day,” said Rafi, 30. He had been unemployed for seven years, since his international employer in Kabul closed its business. He decided to leave when the Taliban captured Kunduz in the north.

   “The Taliban went looking for families who cooperated with the government or international organisations. They killed their sons and kidnapped their daughters,” he said. Rafi hoped to obtain residency in Germany and eventually bring his wife and daughter there.

   Germany was also the destination for Farid, 25, about to make his second attempt at crossing into Iran via Nimruz. Two months ago, Iranian police arrested him in Khoy, close to the Turkish border. They held him for eight days and beating him, before deporting him, he said. Because Farid had worked for an organisation funded by the World Bank in Kapisa province.

   Afghans make up 16% of asylum seekers currently arriving in Turkey and Europe, surpassed only by Syrians.

According to the UN, 122,080 Afghans applied for asylum in 44 countries between January and August, more than twice the number last year. The vast majority are young men.

   Trips from Afghanistan to Europe are priced according to the danger involved. According to people smugglers who spoke to the Guardian, an overland journey via Nimruz costs $6-7,000. Flying to Tehran and continuing overland is $9,000. A flight all the way to Istanbul adds another $2,000 to the price.

   One people smuggler, Khan, said every night, 300 to 400 people cross the border from Nimruz to Iran, the most dangerous part of the journey because of often ruthless Iranian police.

Sune Engel Rasmussen -- The Guardian

 

Update

40 percent of Afghans would like to emigrate

Migration. Starting in 2011, the survey has asked respondents if they would leave Afghanistan if given the opportunity. This year (2015), 39.9% of Afghans say yes, an increase from 33.8% in 2011, while 57.9% say no. Afghans most likely to say yes live in the Central/Kabul (47.4%) and West (44.2%) regions; those least likely live in the South West (26.2%).

   

   Wiretapped conversations between two accused of espionage at a German trial in Koblenz revealed outlines of a huge cover up operation in Turkey to hide a suspected case of corruption allegedly involving former Prime Minister and now President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his family. 

"The voice recording between one of the suspects in the case, Ahmet Duran Yüksel and a man identified as Hünkar A. was played aloud during Thursday’s hearing of the trial. Yüksel was reportedly working for Muhammed Taha Gergerlioğlu, a former aide to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

According to the the conversation wiretapped on Dec. 20, 2013, three days after a major corruption probe broke out in Turkey, Hünkar A. tells Yüksel that “there should of course be a victim” as they discuss repercussions of the probe. “There is already a victim. You know Fethullah Gülen has been chosen. He will be given a severe headache,” Yüksel says in response.

In the recording, Yüksel continues to say that a major overhaul will be carried out in the National Police Department, saying “17,000 police officers will be removed from post.” Yüksel also claims that “an assassination will be carried out” on New Year, but does not give details on who will be killed by whom."

   See the full story here.

This article was originally published by Pro Publica in 2013. Although much additional information has since surfaced it still offers an overview helpful in understanding the mission and work of the National Security Agency.

What information does the NSA collect and how?

We don’t know all of the different types of information the NSA collects, but several secret collection programs have been revealed:

A record of most calls made in the U.S., including the telephone number of the phones making and receiving the call, and how long the call lasted. This information is known as “metadata” and doesn’t include a recording of the actual call (but see below). This program was revealed through a leaked secret court order instructing Verizon to turn over all such information on a daily basis. Other phone companies, including AT&T and Sprint, also reportedly give their records to the NSA on a continual basis. All together, this is several billion calls per day.

Email, Facebook posts and instant messages for an unknown number of people, via PRISM, which involves the cooperation of at least nine different technology companies. Google, Facebook, Yahoo and others have denied that the NSA has “direct access” to their servers, saying they only release user information in response to a court order. Facebook has revealed that, in the last six months of 2012, they handed over the private data of between 18,000 and 19,000 users to law enforcement of all types -- including local police and federal agencies, such as the FBI, Federal Marshals and the NSA.

Massive amounts of raw Internet traffic The NSA intercepts huge amounts of raw data, and stores billions of communication records per day in its databases. Using the NSA’s XKEYSCORE software, analysts can see “nearly everything a user does on the Internet” including emails, social media posts, web sites you visit, addresses typed into Google Maps, files sent, and more. Currently the NSA is only authorized to intercept Internet communications with at least one end outside the U.S., though the domestic collection program used to be broader. But because there is no fully reliable automatic way to separate domestic from international communications, this program also captures some amount of U.S. citizens’ purely domestic Internet activity, such as emails, social media posts, instant messages, the sites you visit and online purchases you make.

The contents of an unknown number of phone calls There have been several reports that the NSA records the audio contents of some phone calls and a leaked document confirms this. This reportedly happens “on a much smaller scale” than the programs above, after analysts select specific people as “targets.” Calls to or from U.S. phone numbers can be recorded, as long as the other end is outside the U.S. or one of the callers is involved in "international terrorism". There does not seem to be any public information about the collection of text messages, which would be much more practical to collect in bulk because of their smaller size.

The NSA has been prohibited from recording domestic communications since the passage of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act but at least two of these programs -- phone records collection and Internet cable taps -- involve huge volumes of Americans’ data.

Does the NSA record everything about everyone, all the time?

The NSA records as much information as it can, subject to technical limitations (there’s a lot of data) and legal constraints. This currently includes the metadata for nearly all telephone calls made in the U.S. (but not their content) and massive amounts of Internet traffic with at least one end outside the U.S. It’s not clear exactly how many cables have been tapped, though we know of at least one inside the U.S., a secret report about the program by the NSA’s Inspector General mentions multiple cables, and the volume of intercepted information is so large that it was processed at 150 sites around the world as of 2008. We also know that Britain’s GCHQ, which shares some intelligence with the NSA, had tapped over 200 cables as of 2012, belonging to seven different telecommunications companies.           

Until 2011 the NSA also operated a domestic Internet metadata program which collected mass records of who emailed who even if both parties were inside the U.S.

Because it is not always possible to separate domestic from foreign communications by automatic means, the NSA still captures some amount of purely domestic information, and it is allowed to do so by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.

The collected information covers “nearly everything a user does on the Internet,” according to a presentation on the XKEYSCORE system. The slides specifically mention emails, Facebook chats, websites visited, Google Maps searches, transmitted files, photographs, and documents of different kinds. It’s also possible to search for people based on where they are connecting from, the language they use, or their use of privacy technologies such as VPNs and encryption, according to the slides.

This is a massive amount of data. The full contents of intercepted Internet traffic can only be stored for up to a few days, depending on the collection site, while the associated “metadata” (who communicated with whom online) is stored up to 30 days. Telephone metadata is smaller and is stored for five years. NSA analysts can move specific data to more permanent databases when they become relevant to an investigation.

The NSA also collects narrower and more detailed information on specific people, such as the actual audio of phone calls and the entire content of email accounts. NSA analysts can submit a request to obtain these types of more detailed information about specific people.

Watching a specific person like this is called “targeting” by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the law which authorizes this type of individual surveillance. The NSA is allowed to record the conversations of non-Americans without a specific warrant for each person monitored, if at least one end of the conversation is outside of the U.S. It is also allowed to record the communications of Americans if they are outside the U.S. and the NSA first gets a warrant for each case. It’s not known exactly how many people the NSA is currently targeting, but according to a leaked report the NSA intercepted content from 37,664 telephone numbers and email addresses from October 2001 to January 2007. Of these, 8% were domestic: 2,612 U.S. phone numbers and 406 U.S. email addresses.

How the NSA actually gets the data depends on the type of information requested. If the analyst wants someone's private emails or social media posts, the NSA must request that specific data from companies such as Google and Facebook. Some technology companies (we don't know which ones) have FBI monitoring equipment installed "on the premises" and the NSA gets the information via the FBI's Data Intercept Technology Unit. The NSA also has the capability to monitor calls made over the Internet (such as Skype calls) and instant messaging chats as they happen.

For information that is already flowing through Internet cables that the NSA is monitoring, or the audio of phone calls, a targeting request instructs automatic systems to watch for the communications of a specific person and save them.

It’s important to note that the NSA probably has information about you even if you aren’t on this target list. If you have previously communicated with someone who has been targeted, then the NSA already has the content of any emails, instant messages, phone calls, etc. you exchanged with the targeted person. Also, your data is likely in bulk records such as phone metadata and Internet traffic recordings. This is what makes these programs “mass surveillance,” as opposed to traditional wiretaps, which are authorized by individual, specific court orders.

What does phone call metadata information reveal, if it doesn’t include the content of the calls?

Even without the content of all your conversations and text messages, so-called “metadata” can reveal a tremendous amount about you. If they have your metadata, the NSA would have a record of your entire address book, or at least every person you’ve called in the last several years. They can guess who you are close to by how often you call someone, and when. By correlating the information from multiple people, they can do sophisticated “network analysis” of communities of many different kinds, personal or professional -- or criminal.

Phone company call records reveal where you were at the time that a call was made, because they include the identifier of the radio tower that transmitted the call to you. The government has repeatedly denied that it collects this information, but former NSA employee Thomas Drake said they do. For a sense of just how powerful location data can be, see this visualization following a German politician everywhere he goes for months, based on his cellphone’s location information.

Even without location data, records of who communicated with whom can be used to discover the structure of groups planning terrorism. Starting from a known "target" (see above), analysts typically reconstruct the social network "two or three hops" out, examining all friends-of-friends, or even friends-of-friends-of-friends, in the search for new targets. This means potentially thousands or millions of people might be examined when investigating a single target.

Metadata is a sensitive topic because there is great potential for abuse. While no one has claimed the NSA is doing this, it would be possible to use metadata to algorithmically identify, with some accuracy, members of other types of groups like the Tea Party or Occupy Wall Street, gun owners, undocumented immigrants, etc. An expert in network analysis could start with all of the calls made from the time and place of a protest, and trace the networks of associations out from there.

Phone metadata is also not “anonymous” in any real sense. The NSA already maintains a database of the phone numbers of all Americans for use in determining whether someone is a “U.S. person” (see below), and there are several commercial number-to-name services in any case. Phone records become even more powerful when they are correlated with other types of data, such as social media posts, local police records and credit card purchase information, a process known as intelligence fusion.

Does the NSA need an individualized warrant to listen to my calls or look at my emails?

It’s complicated, but not in all cases. Leaked court orders set out the "minimization" procedures that govern what the NSA can do with the domestic information it has intercepted. The NSA is allowed to store this domestic information because of the technical difficulties in separating foreign from domestic communications when large amounts of data are being captured.

Another document shows that individual intelligence analysts make the decision to look at previously collected bulk information. They must document their request, but only need approval from their "shift coordinator." If the analyst later discovers that they are looking at the communications of a U.S. person, they must destroy the data.

However, if the intercepted information is “reasonably believed to contain evidence of a crime” then the NSA is allowed to turn it over to federal law enforcement. Unless there are other (still secret) restrictions on how the NSA can use this data this means the police might end up with your private communications without ever having to get approval from a judge, effectively circumventing the whole notion of probable cause.

This is significant because thousands or millions of people might fall into the extended social network of a single known target, but it is not always possible to determine whether someone is a U.S. person before looking at their data. For example, it’s not usually possible to tell just from someone’s email address, which is why the NSA maintains a database of known U.S. email addresses and phone numbers. Internal documents state that analysts need only “51% confidence” that someone is a non-U.S. person before looking at their data, and if the NSA does not have “specific information” about someone, that person is “presumed to be a non-United States person.”

Also, the NSA is allowed to provide any of its recorded information to the FBI, if the FBI specifically asks for it.

Is all of this legal?

Yes, assuming the NSA adheres to the restrictions set out in recently leaked court orders. By definition, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court decides what it is legal for the NSA to do. But this level of domestic surveillance wasn’t always legal, and the NSA's domestic surveillance program has been found to violate legal standards on more than one occasion.

The NSA was gradually granted the authority to collect domestic information on a massive scale through a series of legislative changes and court decisions over the decade following September 11, 2001. See this timeline of loosening laws. The Director of National Intelligence says that authority for PRISM programs comes from section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the Verizon metadata collection order cites section 215 of the Patriot Act. The author of the Patriot Act disagrees that the act justifies the Verizon metadata collection program.

The NSA's broad data collection programs were originally authorized by President Bush on October 4, 2001. The program operated that way for several years, but in March 2004 a Justice Department review declared the bulk Internet metadata program was illegal. President Bush signed an order re-authorizing it anyway. In response, several top Justice Department officials threatened to resign, including acting Attorney General James Comey and FBI director Robert Mueller. Bush backed down, and the Internet metadata program was suspended for several months. By 2007, all aspects of the program were re-authorized by court orders from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.

In 2009, the Justice Department acknowledged that the NSA had collected emails and phone calls of Americans in a way that exceeded legal limitations.

In October 2011, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court ruled that the NSA violated the Fourth Amendment at least once. The Justice Department has said that this ruling must remain secret, but we know it concerned some aspect of the "minimization" rules the govern what the NSA can do with domestic communications. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court recently decided that this ruling can be released, but Justice Department has not yet done so.

Civil liberties groups including the EFF and the ACLU dispute the constitutionality of these programs and have filed lawsuits to challenge them.

How long can the NSA keep information on Americans?

The NSA can generally keep intercepted domestic communications for up to five years. It can keep them indefinitely under certain circumstances, such as when the communication contains evidence of a crime or when it’s “foreign intelligence information,” a broad legal term that includes anything relevant to “the conduct of the foreign affairs of the United States.”

The NSA can also keep encrypted communications indefinitely. That includes any information sent to or from a secure web site, that is, a site with a URL starting with "https".

Does the NSA do anything to protect Americans’ privacy?

Yes. First, the NSA is only allowed to intercept communications if at least one end of the conversation is outside of the U.S. -- though it doesn't have to distinguish domestic from foreign communication until the "earliest practicable point" which allows the NSA to record bulk information from Internet cables and sort it out later. When the NSA discovers that previously intercepted information belongs to an American, it must usually destroy that information. Because this determination cannot always be made by computer, this sometimes happens only after a human analyst has already looked at it.

The NSA also must apply certain safeguards. For example, the NSA must withhold the names of U.S. persons who are not relevant to ongoing investigations when they distribute information -- unless that person’s communications contain evidence of a crime or are relevant to a range of national security and foreign intelligence concerns.

Also, analysts must document why they believe someone is outside of the U.S. when they ask for addition information to be collected on that person. An unknown number of these cases are audited internally. If the NSA makes a mistake and discovers that it has targeted someone inside the U.S., it has five days to submit a report to the Department of Justice and other authorities.

What if I’m not an American?

All bets are off. There do not appear to be any legal restrictions on what the NSA can do with the communications of non-U.S. persons. Since a substantial fraction of the world’s Internet data passes through the United States, or its allies, the U.S. has the ability to observe and record the communications of much of the world’s population. The European Union has already complained to the U.S. Attorney General.

The U.S. is hardly the only country doing mass surveillance, though its program is very large. GCHQ, which is the British counterpart to the NSA, has a similar surveillance program and shares data with the NSA. Many countries now have some sort of mass Internet surveillance now in place. Although passive surveillance is often hard to detect, more aggressive governments use intercepted information to intimidate or control their citizens, including Syria, Iran, Egypt, Bahrain and China. Much of the required equipment is sold to these governments by American companies.

 

 

   Im laufenden Jahr erwartet Deutschland bis zu 1,5 Millionen illegale Einwanderer, in den Medien Flüchtlinge oder Asylbewerber genannt. Wie viele von ihnen als Flüchtlinge anerkannt werden, wird sich zeigen, nach bisheriger Erfahrung und den neuen Asylregeln weniger als die Hälfte der Ankömmlinge. Der Rest soll repatriiert werden -- wie weit das in der Praxis möglich ist, wird sich ebenfalls zeigen.

   Die Deutschen sind überweigend xenophil gestimmt; jeder Zehnte würde laut Umfrage einen Flüchtling bei sich aufnehmen. Während sich die Aufmerksamkeit derzeit auf dringende Probleme wie die Winterfestigkeit der Unterkünfte konzentriert, bleiben längerfristige Aspekte jenseits des öffentlichen Radars.

Wie wird es weitergehen?

   Alle Fachleute erwarten jetzt, dass eine Winterpause den Flüchtlingsstrom eindämmen wird. Davon ist freilich trotz nassem Wetter und niedrigen Temperaturen bislang nichts zu spüren. Die Schlepper an der türkischen Küste bieten Winter-Rabatte; der Zustrom hält unvermindert an, nimmt sogar zu. Furcht, die EU könnte die Tore schliessen, treibt die Migranten an.

   Trotzdem werden Schnee und Eis bald ihr Werk tun; es wird Todesfälle. Erfrierungen und spontane Rettungsaktionen geben. Ein trauriges Weihnachten ist absehbar.

   Das eigentliche Problem aber präsentiert sich erst, wenn  im März und April Frühlingstemperaturen kommen. Dann werden sich die Migranten wieder auf den Weg machen: langfristig vorbereitet und vielleicht auch besser ausgerüstet. Sie werden auf Balkanstaaten treffen, die sich mit Hotspots, Zäunen, Militär und Lagern auf den Ansturm vorbereitet haben. Werden sie die Migranten erneut durchwinken, weil am Ende des Wanderpfads Deutschland die Grenzen offen hält? Oder werden viele Migranten garnicht kommen, weil sie wissen, dass Deutschland die südöstlichen Grenzen bis dahin dicht gemacht hat?

Gibt es denn noch so viele potenzielle Migranten?

   Es gibt fraglos viele. Ungarns Premier Viktor Orbán sprach von 20 Millionen, die nur darauf warten, nach Europa zu kommen. Eine grobe Schätzung, die zu hoch oder auch zu niedrig sein kann. Doch um eine maximale Zahl geht es nicht. Es geht um die, die 2016 ihren Koffer packen und sich auf die Reise machen würden. Noch einmal bis zu 1,5 Millionen in Richtung Deutschland? Oder gar die doppelte Zahl, 3 Millionen? Wie die Lage heute ist, müsste man mit Migrantenzahlen in dieser Grössenordnung rechnen. 

   Die Hoffung auf baldigen Frieden in Syrien, dem Irak und Afghanistan kann man getrost beerdigen. Damit fehlt das Motiv zur Rückkehr der Flüchtlinge in ihre Heimatländer. Sie werden also im Zufluchtsland ihrer Wahl oder Zwangslage bleiben müssen.

Die Kriege

   Die Kriegslage in den drei Ländern verschärft sich. In Syrien bombt die russische Luftwaffe Schneisen durch Ortschaften und Städte, damit Panzer und Regierungstruppen vorrücken können. Erneut sind 130.000 Menschen auf der Flucht, vor allem aus Aleppo, wie das NGO Forum in Gaziantep mitteilte. Noch leben in Syrien knapp 18 Millionen Menschen, die bislang ausgeharrt haben trotz Krieg und jahrelangen Bombardements. Je weniger Gebäude es noch gibt, die halbwegs als Bombenziele gelten können, desto öfter entladen die Flugzeuge ihre Bombenschächte auf die Zivilbevölkerung und alles was kreucht und fleucht, um nicht unverrichteter Dinge zurückzukehren.

   Syrien allein könnte also weitere Millionen Flüchtlinge entsenden, von denen freilich  nur ein Teil über laufend stärker bewachte Grenzen ins Ausland gelangen würde.

   Im Irak steht die entscheidende Schlacht zwischen IS und Regierung noch aus. Gegen die Masse der Schiiten südlich von Bagdad kommt der sunnitische IS bislang nicht an. Die Regierung ihrerseits ist durch Korruption und interne Machtkämpfe gelähmt. Wie lange das Patt hält, ist ungewiss. Ob es je zur Schlacht kommt oder sich eine de facto Teilung des Landes ergibt, ist offen.

   In Afghanistan ist die Lage so prekär, dass Russland offenbar erwägt, mit Hilfe seiner zentralasiatischen Vasallen nach syrischem Modell einzugreifen um zu verhindern, dass die Taliban und der IS das Land übernehmen. Hier besteht die Hoffnung, dass -- anders als in Syrien --  Russland und der Westen gemeinsame Sache machen würden. Jedenfalls wäre erneutes Kampfgeschehen mit einer Fluchtwelle verbunden. Schon jetzt stellen die Afghanen die zweitgrösste Migrantengruppe nach den Syrern, die nach Deutschland strömt.

Afrika

  In Afrika sind die Aussichten auch nicht ermutigend. In mehreren Ländern, vor allem in Äthiopien, Somalia, Südsudan und Madagaskar, droht Hungersnot. Möglicherweise auch in Eritrea, doch man weiss nichts, da die Regierung keine ausländischen Fachleute hereinlässt.  Das Angebot der EU, zur Eindämmung der Massen-Migration den afrikanischen Staaten beim Ausbau der Grenzkontrollen, der Polizei und der Überwachung zu helfen, dürfte von den Diktaturen und korrupten Regimes begierig aufgegriffen werden -- jedoch nicht unbedingt, um potentielle Migranten an der Ausreise zu hindern, vielleicht mit Ausnahme Eritreas, das mit grosser Härte versucht, die Massenflucht seiner männlichen Jugend zu unterbinden.

  Insgesamt könnte man wohl froh sein, wenn die Wanderungsströme aus Mittelost und Afrika im kommenden Jahr das Niveau von 2015 nicht übersteigen werden.  Heftige Kämpfe in Syrien und Afghanistan oder Hungersnöte in Ostafrika könnten über das gegenwärtige Mass hinaus weitere Bevölkerungen in die Flucht treiben. Falls Deutschland trotz aller bisherigen Bedenken seine südöstlichen Grenzen schliesst und die Einwanderung zahlenmässig beschränkt, würden die Ströme andere Wege und Zielländer suchen.

   Es hat keinen Sinn, sich auf die Dienste von Fluchtländern wie die Türkei oder Ägypten zu verlassen.  Im Prinzip sind sie froh, wenn die Migranten ihr Land verlassen und weiter wandern. Man wird sehen, ob selbst massive Zugeständnisse der EU die Türkei bewegen werden, mehr als nur zögernd und vorübergehend die Migrantenströme zu kontrollieren.

   Es ist seit langem klar, dass Deutschland Einwanderung braucht. Wie viele Millionen? Fünf, zehn?  Einwanderung wurde stets als ein gradueller, langfristiger Prozess verstanden. Dem historischen Modell entsprechend, könnte eine Einwanderung von fünf Millionen in ein Land von der Grösse Deutschlands über einen Zeitraum von zehn bis zwanzig Jahren als "normal" oder leicht integrierbar erscheinen. Aber bis zu 1,5 Millionen pro Jahr, Tendenz steigend?  Ahnt Deutschland, was das bedeutet?

Heinrich von Loesch

Update

Das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium rechnet in einer internen Kalkulation mit 3,4 Millionen Flüchtlingen im Zeitraum von 2015 bis 2020. Demnach würden 2016 noch einmal 800.000 Menschen in Deutschland Zuflucht suchen. (Der Spiegel 7/11/05)

 

Update II

The European Commission estimates 3 million asylum seekers may be heading toward the bloc by 2017. (Bloomberg Business  17/11/05)

 

Update III

Nicht nur Europa hat ein Problem...

U.S. Customs and Border Protection berichtet:

Southwest Border Unaccompanied Alien Children Statistics FY 2016

“Out of an abundance of caution, the Office of Refugee Resettlement at HHS has begun a process to expand its temporary capacity to house unaccompanied children. This is a prudent step to ensure that the Border Patrol can continue its vital national security mission to prevent illegal migration, trafficking, and protect the borders of the United States.

As we have highlighted over the last few months, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have noted an increase in the number of unaccompanied children (UAC) and family units apprehended along the southwest border. The entire administration has been closely monitoring these current trends and coordinating across the whole of government to ensure an effective response to any changes in migration flows.

DHS and HHS are working together to accommodate these children without disrupting the vital national security mission of the Border Patrol and have begun a process to expand HHS temporary capacity to shelter unaccompanied children. The Office of Refugee Resettlement at HHS increased the capacity of current providers from 7,900 to 8,400 beds in November and is preparing for temporary bed space in the event that additional beds may be needed. ORR is continuously analyzing and monitoring bed capacity of unaccompanied children referred to HHS, as well as the information received from interagency partners, to inform any future decisions or actions.

We continue to aggressively work to secure our borders, address underlying causes and deter future increases in unauthorized migration, while ensuring that those with legitimate humanitarian claims are afforded the opportunity to seek protection. We also continue to look at broader regional efforts to address the flow of children and family units from Central America into the United States.”