A recent intelligence report on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) has revealed its plan to attack Turkey by poisoning the country's water sources and thereby causing the spread of disease throughout the country. The intelligence report, labeled “confidential,” was sent to all security units in İstanbul.
The report states that the biggest biological threat Turkey faces is called “tularemia,” a deadly venom obtained from rodents. Among the symptoms of tularemia-related diseases are high fever, headache, a feeling of weakness, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the report. The report emphasizes that Turkish health experts do not have much information on tularemia cases, unlike other European countries.
The report states that it is very hard to diagnose the disease because its symptoms resemble those of many other diseases, and in the event of a Daesh attack on Turkey with this poison, many lives in Turkey might be lost because of late diagnosis. The report also states that Daesh plans to poison potable water supplies, water in reservoirs and other water sources.
Authorities have not taken security measures to safeguard water sources in Turkey despite a recent intelligence report that suggests the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) plans to attack Turkey by poisoning the country's water, experts in poisoning said.
Who thought 2015 was an exceptional year of refugee arrivals in Europe might be very wrong, says the International Organization for Migration (OIM).
Greece
Since the beginning of 2016, IOM estimates that 31,244 migrants and refugees have arrived in Greece by sea. This is some 21 times as many as the 1,472 recorded by the Greek Coast Guard for the whole of January 2015.
The number suggests that the number of maritime arrivals in Greece in 2016 may significantly exceed the record 853,650 migrants who arrived in Greece by sea in 2015.
Some 48 per cent of Greece’s 2016 arrivals have been Syrians, 29 per cent Afghans, 12 per cent Iraqis, 3 per cent Pakistanis and 2 per cent Iranians. Other nationalities have included Algerians, Bangladeshis, Egyptians, Eritreans, Lebanese and Moroccans.
Almost 90 per cent of the newly arrived migrants are nationals of countries (Syrians, Iraqis and Afghanis) that are allowed to cross Greece’s border with Macedonia. According to the Greek police, almost 31,100 have already crossed the Greek-Macedonia borders this month.
Italy
In 2015, 153,842 migrants and refugees arrived in Italy in while in 2014 there were 170,100 arrivals.
“Although it may seem that Italy in 2015 registered a decrease in arrivals, we must consider that in 2014 Syria was the most represented country of origin of migrants reaching Italian shores, while in 2015 this flow decreased since Syrians predominantly reached Europe through the Greek route. Indeed, if we do not include Syrians, the number of Nigerians, Somalis and Sudanese who arrived in Italy by sea in 2015 have more than doubled compared to last year, while the most represented country of origin has been Eritrea (39,162 arrivals)” said OIM spokesperson Di Giacomo.
International Organization for Migration
Written on .
Two groups of scientists and writers are interested in showing demographic doom for Europe and other European settled countries: the Muslim haters and the Islamists.
Both are happy to show that some time soon Islam will replace Christianity as the leading religion in Europe; the continent will hence become part of the Islamic world and could be called Eurabia.
"Eurabia is a political neologism. The concept was coined by Bat Ye'or in the early 2000s. Bat Ye'Or (pen name of Gisele Littman) claims a conspiracy of globalist elements, allegedly led by France and Arab powers, to Islamise and Arabise Europe, thereby weakening its existing culture and undermining an alleged previous alignment with the U.S. and Israel". (wikipedia)
An example of this kind of material is the video “Muslim Demographics” produced by an Islamist video production which calls itself “Syariah Khilafah“, Malay for “Sharia Caliphate”. The video is very popular and has allegedly been viewed more than ten million times.*)
The impressive statistics with which it bombards the audience appear related to a few assumptions:
Muslims always show a higher fertility than Christians living in the same country or region
Because of their high fertility Muslims suffer from population pressure and poverty, and are forced to migrate to non-Muslim countries
Their Sharia law facilitates polygyny which permits men to have many children
Christian fertility is continuously declining because Christian women increasingly enter the work force instead of staying at home and rearing children, as most Muslim women do.
Muslims are pious and once they attain the population majority, they will force Christians to adopt their life style.
Before looking at individual country statistics it is useful to discuss the above assumptions:
It is true that Muslims virtually always show higher fertility than Christians in the same country and at the same time. Their male preference-dominated culture makes it difficult and often impossible for women to enter the work force and acquire the necessary education and skills. Raising children – especially sons -- therefore often becomes their main lifetime activity. Still, the recent "collapse of fertility rates in Muslim countries is a derivative of modernization and Westernization, rapid urbanization and internal security concerns by dictators fearing the consequences of the widening gap between population growth and economic growth."
By excluding a majority of women from gainful employment and activity, Muslim societies remain relatively poor, unless some external advantage (crude oil, tourism) yields a rental income. Because of poverty, low levels of education (many Muslimas in the world are near-illiterate), Muslim societies find it difficult to support growing populations; hence the need for the young to migrate.
True. Many Muslim men have more children from polygyny or sequential marriages. Although this is often conducive to poverty and low levels of education it does not increase overall fertility. Polygamous societies tend to have a lower total fertility rate than monogamous ones because they show less children per woman.
There are signs that the fertility decline in European countries has bottomed out. Both Italy and Germany are showing timid signs of increasing birth rates. Generally speaking, extrapolations of birth rate trends are highly unreliable. Even the UN Population Division was repeatedly forced to revise its forecasts,
This assumption is, despite Houellebecq, very debatable. What is going on is a trial of strength, On one side there is the traditionalism of Islam, enormously reinforced by the Saudi and Qatari financed spread of Wahhabism, Salafism and Jihadism. On the other side there is the constant erosion of any religion by the forces of modern secularism, humanism, science and education. Who is going to win? Mohamed bin Abdul Wahhab or Albert Einstein? Despite the enormous spread of Salafism since the invention of Islamism by Hassan El-Banna in 1928, the contest is still wide open. Some observers consider the current “Caliphate” in Raqqa and Mosul the last, desperate and suicidal effort of Salafism.
Having said this, let us look at the facts.
The video claims that 90 percent of Europe's population growth since 1990 was due to Islamic immigration. The 2015 (January-October) figures show that roughly 972,000 asylum seekers in the European Union arrived by sea. With the exception of some Christian Eritreans and Syrians, all were Muslims. Since the population of the EU28 grew by 1.1 million (natural growth + net migration) between 2014 and 2015, it is correct to say that in 2015 about 90 percent of Europe's population growth consisted of Muslims.
Since 1995, most of Europe's population growth consisted of net migration. By 2010, the EU's Muslim population was estimated at 18 million. Net immigration in 2010 was 750,000. In 2013, of the total of 870,000 people who received citizenship in the EU, only about 250,000 hailed from Muslim countries.
Although it is difficult to get reliable figures for the religious breakdown of EU immigration, the emerging picture is as follows:
2015 was an exceptional year in which Muslims indeed accounted for 90 percent of EU population growth. In earlier years the share was much lower. Although the statement made in the video appears exaggerated it cannot be excluded that in future the influx of Muslims could be very high if immigration continues at 2015 levels .
Let us look at country data
France
The video says that a typical French family has 1.8 children but that French Muslim families have 8.1 children. France will become an Islamic Republic within 39 years, according to the video.
But in France only 7.5 percent of a growing population (2010) were Muslims – mostly from North Africa whose fertility was estimated at 2.2 (not the grossly outdated 8.1) children or less per family (2011). Given the observation that the fertility of Muslim minority populations worldwide is currently decreasing faster than that of majority groups, there is little prospect that France will become an Islamic Republic during the course of this century unless huge waves of migrants play havoc with traditional demographics.
Germany
According to the video, Germany “will be a Muslim state by the year 2050." Currently, the number of Muslims – including the 2015 arrivals – is roughly 4.8 million of a total of 82 million, or 6 percent. PEW Research put the Total Fertility Rate of German Muslims for 2005-2010 at 1.8 children, higher than the 1.3 TFR of the non-Muslim population but below stability level which requires 2.1 children. Without immigration, the number of Muslims in Germany would shrink, although their share of the total population would continue to rise. Since 2014, however, the overall German TFR started rising, although with small increments. It appears that the declining trend of the German population has ended. Still. a projection expects Germany's population to shrink to 74 million (medium variant) in 2050, a loss of 8 million since 2015.
For Muslims to attain the majority, their minority would have to rise from the current estimated 4.8 million to 38 million. Since the existing Muslim minority is shrinking rather than growing, all depends on immigration and the TFR of immigrants once they arrive in Germany.
Judging by the events of 2015, it does not appear likely that over the next 35 years some 40 million more Muslims would be living in Germany – assuming that the below-reproduction TFR of the local Muslims would balance the initially higher TFR of the immigrants.
In conclusion: it is not likely that Muslims could attain the majority status in Germany by 2050 but it cannot be excluded because the enormous population pressure in Islamic countries resulting from runaway past growth and conflicts will send large numbers of mostly young migrants to Europe, year after year.
Significance
Although not totally wrong in its conclusions, the video is clearly biased and operates with outdated and partly false figures. It constitutes another attempt to bolster the myth of the inevitable victory of Islam over the western world. This myth cannot easily be debunked. It has a life of its own, independent of demographic facts.
The video is clearly aimed at the Muslim population. It shall reinforce the belief that the victory of Islam is imminent and unavoidable. People who are pious and believe in the myth can more easily be motivated to support terrorism and warfare against western countries. Anecdotal evidence shows that many Muslims believe in religious victory, all the more since the well financed Wahhabis and Salafis are omnipresent in the Internet and have multiplied their mosques and medresses to the extent that are eclipsing traditional teachings. Many young Muslims may not even be aware that other rules and fatwas than the Wahhabi ones exist. The video discussed here is part of the radicalist brainwashing. It also serves the secondary purpose of scaring non-Muslim Europeans and strengthening anti-Muslim feelings which isolate Muslim minorities and makes them susceptible to radical ideas.
Interestingly, other videos from the same source purport to show a united Umma as if the Sunna/Shia split did not exist, perhaps because their production predates the current state of affairs.
Cologne and no end. German media are mobilizing their Middle East correspondents and all kinds of experts to explain to their audience what happened on New Year's Eve in Cologne, Hamburg, Stuttgart, and why.
For the first time the “Arabs” occupy center stage. More than any terrorist attack has the Cologne flash mob succeeded in shaking up Germany's complacent way of life.
The Germans are furious. Their politicians, the bureaucracy and the police appear helpless, hapless. “Who got us into this mess?” Merkel.
With more millions suspected to be on the way to Europe, the feeling of doom is pervasive. Nobody believes that new laws and more policing will save the old way of life.
Who are these Arabs who insulted German women and poked fun at the police?
Who are these Arabs?
After half a century of co-existence with Turkish and Kurdish immigrants and their offspring the Germans thought they knew it all – the forced marriages, the honor killings, the under-age brides, the hubble-bubble cafes and the halal butchers.
And now the Arabs! So new, so different, so threatening! And so many!
In addition to the Syrians and Iraqis there are now thousands of Moroccans, Algerians and Tunisians on the move toward Germany. They cannot claim refugee status; their arrival in increasing numbers undermines the altruistic groundswell of the German society (at least in western Germany) which impressively welcomed the Syrians and the Eritreans in 2015.
The Moroccans, mostly young unemployed men from poor quarters were electrified by the news of the successful trek of hundreds of thousands through the Balkans to Germany. The traditional Moroccan migration route to Italy and from there to France has been blocked by the Italian police which now prevents them from stepping off the plane and evicts them on the return flight. The same treatment is offered to Algerians; Italy concluded agreements with both countries which rule that they will take back all illegal migrants.
Since Turkey is still open to Moroccans and Algerians, the flights to Turkey are sold out and rates have been raised.
What irks the Germans as regards young North Africans is their reputation for pickpocketing. In fact, in poor quarters of Casablanca, attending the pickpocket school is for young men often the only way of learning a trade. In Cologne, numerous Maghrebinians, especially Moroccans, gave an impressive show of their skills. Since they cannot hope to be offered asylum, they try to make as much money as possible during their stay in Germany, North Rhine Westphalia police says. Theft, burglary and drug pushing are their main activities. North Africans and Lebanese clans display utter disrespect for the police and are living in ghettoes which are virtual no-go areas where single police patrols are impossible, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported (Gesetz der Strasse, 16/17-1-16)
Unlike the Greeks
In the 1960s, Germany was invaded by thousands of young Greek males fleeing poverty. Many of them quickly established a trade, set up a restaurant or shipped second hand cars and machinery to Greece. Others found employment as unskilled workers. Many Greeks married German women in order to get a permit of residence, allowing them to fulfil their dream of buying a car and returning to Greece with a German number plate, where cars were luxury items because of heavy customs duties.
The Greeks somehow managed their German families and, on the whole, integrated well. When they took their German wife to Greece she was well received and treated with courtesy.
The young Arabs now arriving in Germany by the hundreds of thousands have quite different ideas. They are attracted by Germany not only for making money to send home but also to enjoy themselves. Enjoying themselves -- as the events in Cologne, Hamburg and Stuttgart showed -- means girls, women, and cheap alcohol. In Arabic such events are called تحرش جماعي ,(taharrush gamea), a form of collective sexual harassment and rape popular among young Arabs.
Undoubtedly Germany's reputation for having plenty of girls in miniskirts circulating in public places is an exciting offer to young, poor Arabs who cannot hope of finding a wife in their country because they cannot afford the bride price and/or the costly wedding.
In the current discussion of the refugee crisis only two types of migrants have found attention: the true refugee and the economic migrant. The existence of a third type of sexual migrant has been ignored. He comes from predominantly Muslim countries, Arab and non-Arab, with their rigid morale.
The current trend in Muslim countries of women adopting the veil – which was once limited to peasantry and the low classes – increases the contrast of appearance between Arab and European women, and hence the fascination for young Arab men.
What about the good old convenience marriage with a German woman in order to secure the residence permit and all related advantages?
Nope. In matters of marriage, the young Arab will consult his family back home where probably the daughter of his father's brother is waiting for him. She is often not allowed to marry another man unless her اِبْنُ عَمَّةٍ (ibn 'amm), her cousin, refuses her.
If the young Arab is independent enough to ignore the family and marry a foreigner, there are two unpleasant possible consequences: one is that he will one day return to his country. abandon his European family and divorce his wife in the convenient Sharia way. Or he will take his European wife to his hometown where she will have to convert to Islam. She will find herself locked up in the house and forced to put on the veil.
Ihsan al-Tawil
Update
Der Spiegel magazine reported that German Länder governments encountered difficulties in deporting North Africans. The governments of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia were very reluctant to accept returnees. By end-July 2015, of some 5,500 North Africans due to be deported, German authorities only succeeded in repatriating 53 of them during the first half of 2015.
Update II Not only Arab men ...
In Munich's large Bayern Barracks refugee shelter, a group of 15 Nigerian women surrounded a Protestant Church representative and demanded to be given an apartment. The women harrassed the man, some allegedly slapped him in the face; one of them strangled him with his shawl. The man did not react because the women were carrying babies. Some threatened to let the babies drop to the floor unless he provided them with apartments. When police arrived, the situation calmed down. (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 14 January 2016)
Update III Women themselves responsible ...
Warning women against "adding fuel to the fire". the Imam of a Salafist Cologne mosque', Imam Sami Abu-Yusuf, has said the victims of the New Year’s Eve attacks in that city were themselves responsible for their sex assault by being half naked and wearing perfume.
