Der ungarische Premierminister Viktor Orban war überzeugt, dass der rechtsextreme Kandidat George Simion bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen in Rumänien gewinnen würde, und unterstützte ihn stillschweigend.
Das Problem ist jedoch, dass Orban die starke ungarische Minderheit in seinem Nachbarland gegen sich aufgebracht hat, und er folglich seine Wette verloren hat.
Der pro-europäische Kandidat Nicusor Dan gewann am Sonntag mit der massiven Unterstützung der Magyaren (Ungarn), wie im Kreis Harghita in Siebenbürgen, wo er sein landesweit bestes Ergebnis erzielte (über 90%).
In Mitteleuropa, haben sich die Grenzen im Laufe der Geschichte immer wieder verschoben, Als Folge davon leben in dieser Region eine Million Ungarn.
Sie wurden seit 2010 von einem Viktor Orban verwöhnt, der um die Stimmen von Doppelbürgern buhlte, und waren in der Zwischenzeit verblüfft, als sie hörten, wie ihr Beschützer ihren schlimmsten Feind, George Simion, lobte.
Denn der Chef der nationalistischen Partei AUR propagiert dieAssimilation der Magyaren und spricht ihnen jegliche Sonderrechte ab.
2019 war er sogar in Auseinandersetzungen um einen österreichisch-ungarischen Soldatenfriedhof aus dem Ersten Weltkrieg in Valea Uzului verwickelt, den gewalttätigsten interethnischen Vorfall in Rumänien seit Jahrzehnten.
“Without the US it is impossible to change the balance. [And over time] it will push the balance to Russia. We will still be alive but we will pay a huge price.”, a senior Ukrainian official told the Guardian.
The Ukraine war resembles a fight between two mortally wounded champions, each one wounded in a different way. Ukraine is running desperately short of soldiers and ammunition; Russia is facing a slow but inevitable economic collapse.
The world is watching: who of the two antagonists is going to break down first, thereby enabling the opponent to claim victory and survival?
Russia’s problems are less visible than those of Ukraine. The situation resembles that of France and Germany at the end of World War I: France was destroyed by years of heavy battles on its own territory, especially along the Somme and Marne rivers; Germany had not experienced any destruction and yet, it lost the war, much to the surprise of the hawks among its population. (The surprise resulted in a decade of stubborn German efforts to undo the Versailles treaty and, ultimately, gave rise to Hitler. But this is a different story)
A sign of weakness: sending 273 disposable drones instead of attacking with an army of 273 tanks, or else. Still, the figure 273 shows that Russia is making a desperate effort within the limits of its potential to impress on Ukraine and its Western allies that the “21 years” of war it promised to conduct are no empty threat hiding weakness.
The fact that Russia feels it is now necessary to beef up its military presence along the Finnish border is another sign of nervousness and goes at the expense of its potential in the Ukraine war.
Today we share alarming evidence – in the form of extensive satellite imagery – that Russia is shoring up its military presence to threaten Nato’s eastern flank. It’s a concerning indication of where Putin’s swollen army could be moved after a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Finnish officials said that so far, the build-up is small scale. But it is likely being done in preparation for tens of thousands of troops and military assets to be redeployed in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. “We joined Nato, so we anticipated this,” said Maj Gen Sami Nurmi, chief of strategy of the Finnish Defence Forces. The military, he said, is watching Russia’s movements closely. “What we are seeing are the preparations for the future” when Russia will bring back the forces fighting in Ukraine, he said. “But the troops on our borders will grow.”
Marc DeVore and Alexander Mertens explained in Foreign Affairs that Russia, hitting the limits of its war economy, will be forced to invade other countries and loot their riches in order to finance its excessive armaments and warfare expenses.
War leads to more war, for this and other reasons. In the desperate situation into which Putin has steered Russia, peace is no option anymore. A sad destiny for Ukraine: learning to somehow survive in a permanent war, hoping for Russia’s economy to implode.
Burkhart FürstUpdate(German) Major General Christian Freuding: Putin can no longer win this war militarily. This is also shown by the minimal forward movements of the Russian army in recent months and years.Bridget Brink, who recently resigned her post as US Ambassador to Ukraine: Interest rates in Russia are at 21%. Inflation's at 10%. Russia's economy is really hurting, and Putin's looking for ways to relieve that pressure, and that's why he's dragging out this process and dragging out this war. If he were as strong as what I think he wants to portray, he would have been successful a long time ago. So Russia's much weaker than people think, and Ukraine is much stronger.“It is not our war,” said Vice President JD Vance earlier. Reprising his role as the harbinger of very bad news for European security, Vance held out again this remarkable non-threat: that the United States might pull out of the war – presumably from both diplomacy and aid to Ukraine – unless Russia takes steps toward a peace deal it adamantly does not want. Washington backing off is exactly what Russia yearns for, and to earn this dream outcome, it seems Putin has to do absolutely nothing, bar continue to wage a brutal war.
Although the Kremlin has claimed some nominal territorial gains, Russian forces are yet to cement any major breakthroughs. In particular, the battle for Pokrovsk has typified the slow-moving war of attrition this conflict has snowballed into, taking tens of thousands of lives in the process.
Western estimates suggest Russian casualties are nearing one million. With Ukrainian drone strikes multiplying and morale on the home front waning, Putin is locked in a war of attrition with no clear exit.
Ukraine Won't Be Broken
Ukraine, for its part, has refused to break. Despite being outmanned and outgunned, it continues to innovate on the battlefield. The shift from conventional warfare to strategic, asymmetric tactics—particularly in drone and cyber warfare—has kept Russia from consolidating its hold on occupied territories. And while Ukraine’s economy suffers, its people remain fiercely defiant.
This resilience is not born of political calculation, but of survival instinct, reinforced by the brutality of Russian occupation.
Diplomatically, the Kremlin’s options are narrowing. Russia has failed to drive a wedge between Washington and Europe. On the contrary, the U.S. and newly assertive Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have hardened their stance.
Moscow’s hopes of exploiting divisions in the West have largely evaporated, not least because of its well-documented indiscriminate bombing campaigns and scorched-earth tactics. Some reports even suggest that Putin’s generals are lying to him about the situation on the ground.
Despite widespread economic hardship among Russian citizens, Putin maintains a belief in his victory and demands "completely unreasonable" conditions for the cessation of hostilities, according to intelligence officials.
Russia expert Pleitgen (Frederik Pleitgen, correspondent CNN) warned against overestimating the effect of European economic punitive measures. The mood prevailing is not only very good in Moscow government circles, but also in parts of the Russian economy. They are less concerned about new sanctions and are instead thinking about how to take advantage of opportunities presented by the change in US policy. “They see themselves on the verge of being back on the American market,” said the journalist, describing his impressions from conversations with Russian entrepreneurs. There is also no need to hope regarding Putin's age and state of health, he added. After six bilateral meetings in one day, the Russian president made a good impression on him, Pleitgen reported from a press conference in the Kremlin. “He certainly seemed fitter than me,” said the 48-year-old media representative about the 72-year-old Putin.
t-onlineNATO is powerful enough to deter Russia and defensive enough to fend off an attack. No matter when. 400 million Europeans and 360 million Americans can defend themselves against 160 million Russians. We must not allow ourselves to be misled. As dynamic as the process in Russia is: we are more, we have more and we are better.t-online
NATO allies must commit to spending 5% of GDP on defence, as Russian threat looms, says NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Within three months, Russia develops four times the amount of ammunition NATO countries produce in a year, he said.
understandingwar.org/...Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa told reporters on June 5 that Russia likely seeks to seize the full extent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by September 1, 2025, and create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of 2025.[1] Palisa also stated that Russia intends to occupy the entirety of Ukraine on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River and seize Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts by the end of 2026, depriving Ukraine of access to the Black Sea. Western sources published a map on June 4 and 6 that Palisa reportedly presented to US officials and journalists.[2] The map suggests that Russia intends to seize roughly 222,700 additional square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and hold a total of 336,300 square kilometers by the end of 2026 – almost doublGoatseFarmer
e the roughly 162,000 total square kilometers that Russia held as of the first month of Russia's initial full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The total area of Ukraine is roughly 603,500 square kilometers
'Invest in defence now or start learning Russian later' - NATO Secretary General
Mark Rutte reiterated NATO’s recent warnings that Russia could strike NATO territory within the next couple of years. “If we don't act now, the next three years, we are fine, but we have to start now, because otherwise, from three, four or five years from now, we are really under threat," he said, adding: "I really mean this. Then you have to get your Russian language course out, or go to New Zealand.”
“It’s good to have continuity about the US in NATO, but with Ukraine it’s a different story. I just don’t think Trump really cares about Ukraine," the US-based source told Euronews.
“Trump just doesn’t care about Europe – it doesn't make him richer or help him politically,” the source said.
«Nous avons besoin de faire un bond en avant dans notre défense collective (...) Le fait est que le danger ne disparaîtra pas, même avec la fin de la guerre en Ukraine», doit déclarer Mark Rutte, selon un communiqué.
In this world, Putin’s military is now the most battle tested, combat experienced and functionally prepared military in the world, and has the ability to at least briefly become the largest of Putin literally commits to a barbaric militaristic genocide. This military has tired elements; but many are considered to be human shields to protect the valuable ones, additionally this military now wields a considerable amount of NATO hardware and has service members trained to use them
The latest U-turn by US President Donald Trump allows the delivery of American armaments to Ukraine, provided Ukraine pays for the purchase. Trump is a businessman: he will be delighted if the US arms industry does good business by selling to Ukraine (and finances another election campaign as thanks).
There is only one catch: Ukraine lacks the money to buy in the USA. This is where Europe, and Germany in particular, comes into play: the European arms industry is unfortunately far too small to meet Ukraine's current needs.
But Europe has something else that is now just as good as weapons: Money.
Europe is at a crossroads: either it gives Ukraine the money it needs to cover its arms requirements by buying from the USA or wherever, or Europe risks a victorious Putin realizing his dream: the dream of Russian tanks rolling westwards along German freeways, of freight trains full of loot and prisoners rolling eastwards, of a Quisling regime - perhaps with Sahra Wagenknecht - in Berlin cheering “liberation”.
Germany, Western Europe's vanguard toward east, faces a choice: financing Ukraine's struggle or risking Putin realizing his dream, as a NATO gutted by Trump looks on, paralyzed.
OK, OK: the situation is not quite that dramatic. Thanks to France and Great Britain, NATO still exists. Poland is still protecting Germany's eastern border. Brave Ukraine is not yet lost.
But many questions remain unanswered:
Can Ukraine hold out for four years until the next US presidential election? Will Trump be able to continue governing somehow? Or will the crackpot Vance take his place? Or another Republican hardliner?
Either way, as long as Ukraine can fight, Europe is relatively safe. Ukraine ties up part of Russia's military power and effectively protects Europe. Europe - especially Germany - should therefore ensure that Kiev always has enough weapons.
Practically speaking: What needs to happen? Europe, i.e. Germany, should finance Ukraine's arms purchases. What is needed is a
Ukraine emergency sacrifice
in the amount of the currently missing American arms assistance, i.e. around 175 billion dollars over two to three years. That would correspond to around 160 billion euros or just under 80 billion per year.
Germany to provide 46 billion euros for Ukraine
The new German government has launched a fabulous project: it wants to subsidize the economy with 46 billion euros in the form of tax cuts. The car industry in particular is to benefit from this, and growth is to be breathed back into the economy, which has been stuttering for a few years. The 46 billion is exactly the amount needed: for Ukraine, not for the German economy or its ailing car industry. The economy doesn't need a cent of it, let alone the car industry. The fact that the German economy hasn't grown recently isn't a disaster. Italy has been demonstrating that you can live happily for decades without growth . But if Ukraine collapses for lack of money, Germany will be in dire straits.. Putin would laugh if a healthy economy including a pampered car industry fell to him (1), Berlin should think carefully about what is more important: greasing the palms of the capitalist clientele of the CDU/CSU and SPD parties or showing the Soviet nostalgic Putin a stop sign.
--ed.
If we realistically assume that Italy and France do not want to pay because of their high national indebtedness, that Poland has already made exemplary investments in defense and Great Britain is paralyzed by the advance of the Reform Party, then Germany will remain as the main payer of the emergency sacrifice.
The 80 billion corresponds to around 4 percent of the entire German national budget.
If every budget - federal, state and local - were to pay four percent into the emergency fund, Ukraine could receive what it needs. If other EU countries also contributed - the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden, Norway, Austria - Germany's share of the emergency aid would shrink.
However, timing is important: the money would only help Ukraine if it arrived in time, for example if Germany would make advance payments on behalf of its neighbors.
It is a fortunate coincidence that Germany has just got a new government that could push such an unusual project through the Bundestag and Bundesrat.
Heinrich von LoeschAt present, the EU spends around 1.8 percent of the bloc’s GDP on defense, or around 325 billion euros ($340 billion). To meet the continent’s defense needs, it will have to spend closer to 3.5 percent of GDP, a level that would address current deficiencies in areas such as missile defense, long-range artillery, and satellites. To make up for the loss of American military assistance to Ukraine, the bloc will also have to double its aid to Kyiv, which currently stands at 38 billion euros ($43 billion) annually. Altogether, these expenses would add nearly 360 billion euros ($409 billion) in additional annual spending per year, or 1.9 percent of the EU’s GDP—a daunting figure.Foreign AffairsAlthough Nato countries have publicly committed to increasing spending to 2% of GDP, the researchers say the ReArm Europe plan could lead to an eventual rise to 3.5%, from about 1.5% in 2020. The researchers assumed a similar eventual increase in Nato members that are not members of the EU, such as the UK.The Guardian
Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed
Europe could need 300,000 more troops and an annual defence spending hike of at least €250 billion in the short term to deter Russian aggression.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the numbers are small enough for Europe to replace the US fully. Since February 2022, US military support to Ukraine has amounted to €64 billion, while Europe, including the United Kingdom, sent €62 billion. In 2024, US military support amounted to €20 billion out of a total of €42 billion. To replace the US, the EU would thus have to spend only another 0.12 percent of its GDP – a feasible amount. A more important question is whether Europe could do this without access to the US military-industrial base.
The combat power of 300,000 US troops is substantially greater than the equivalent number of European troops distributed over 29 national armies. US troops would come in large, cohesive, corps-sized units with a unified command and control tighter even than NATO joint command. Furthermore, US troops are backed by the full might of American strategic enablers, including strategic aviation and space assets, which European militaries lack.
Europe, including the UK, currently has 1.47 million active-duty military personnel (SIPRI, 2024) but effectiveness is hampered by the lack of a unified command..
Europe can sustain Ukraine's fight with Russia even without US, German general says
Major General Christian Freuding said Nato’s European members plus Canada had already exceeded the estimated $20 billion worth of US military aid provided last year to Kyiv.
They accounted for around 60% of the total costs borne by the Western allies, he said.
“The war against Ukraine is raging on our continent, it is also being waged against the European security order. If the political will is there, then the means will also be there to largely compensate for the American support,” Freuding said in an interview.
-Russia is determined to test the resolve of the NATO alliance, including by extending its confrontation with the West beyond the borders of Ukraine, the Germany's foreign intelligence chief told the Table Media news organization.
Bruno Kahl, head of the Federal Intelligence Service, said his agency had clear intelligence indications that Russian officials believed the collective defence obligations enshrined in the NATO treaty no longer had practical force.
"We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it, that Ukraine is only a step on the journey westward," Kahl told Table Media in a podcast interview.
"That doesn't mean we expect tank armies to roll westwards," he added. "But we see that NATO's collective defence promise is to be tested."
Germany, already the second-largest provider of armaments and financial support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, has pledged to step up its support further under the new government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, promising to help Ukraine develop new missiles that could strike deep into Russian territory.
Without detailing the nature of his intelligence sources, Kahl said Russian officials were envisaging confrontations that fell short of a full military engagement that would test whether the U.S. would really live up to its mutual aid obligations under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
"They don't need to dispatch armies of tanks for that," he said. "It's enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities."
Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea involved occupation of buildings and offices by Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms and civilian clothes, who came to be known as the "little green men" when Moscow initially denied their identity.
Kahl did not specify which officials in Moscow were thinking along these lines.
Merz, who visited Donald Trump in Washington last week, pushed back against the U.S. president's assertion that Ukraine and Russia were like two infants fighting, telling Trump that where Ukraine targeted Moscow's military, Russia bombed Ukraine's cities.
Kahl said his contacts with U.S. counterparts had left him convinced they took the Russian threat seriously.
"They take it as seriously as us, thank God," he said.
Speaking at London’s Chatham House, Mr Rutte said it is “not up to me” whether that means Rachel Reeves should consider tax hikes to pay for the commitment.
He added: “I mean, what I know is that if we want to keep our societies safe... look, if you do not do this, if you would not go to the 5%, including the 3.5% core defence spending, you could still have the National Health Service, or in other countries their health systems, the pension system, etcetera, but you had better learn to speak Russian.”
Independent (1) In 1945, the Soviets removed an entire German car factory producing Opel "Kadett" cars and took it to Russia where it continued producing the same model, which was sold not only in Russia but exported to several countries as "Moskvich". I saw it on sale in Egypt in 1956.
--HvL.
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Die detektivische Arbeit von Jari Honora, dem Genealogen und Historiker aus New Orleans, stützte sich auf die Analyse historischer Dokumente, einschließlich Volkszählungsaufzeichnungen, von denen viele hier vorgestellt werden. Andere Dokumente wurden von der Erzdiözese von New Orleans ausgegraben oder von der New York Times unabhängig beschafft. [...] In ihrer Gesamtheit zeichnen die Dokumente die Geschichte einer Familie mütterlicherseits von Papst Leo nach, die ihre Wurzeln in der einzigartigen afro-karibischen Kultur von New Orleans hat und später im frühen 20. Jahrhundert nach Chicago zog.
Es ist unklar, warum sie wegzogen, aber viele kreolische Familien wie die ihre gingen damals auf der Suche nach besser bezahlten Arbeitsplätzen und einem weniger rassistischen Umfeld nach Norden - eine Geschichte, die Parallelen in der Neigung des neuen Papstes findet, sich um Migranten und arme Menschen zu kümmern.
[...] Die Dokumente deuten auch auf eine Geschichte hin, die bei einigen amerikanischen People of Color, die eine solche Wanderung unternommen haben, nicht ungewöhnlich ist: ein Wechsel der rassischen Einstufung von Schwarz zu Weiß. Einer der Brüder des Papstes, John Prevost, 71, der in einem Vorort von Chicago lebt, bestätigte die Abstammung der Familie, sagte aber der New York Times, dass er und seine Brüder sich immer als Weiße betrachtet hätten.
Was seine Mutter betrifft, sagte er: „Ich könnte es Ihnen wirklich nicht genau sagen. Vielleicht hat sie einfach spanisch gesagt“.
[....]
Damit Sie nicht denken, der neue Papst sei weit davon entfernt, als Schwarzer oder Farbiger eingestuft zu werden, hätte ihn seine Abstammung nach dem Gesetz von Louisiana noch 1982 als „farbig“ eingestuft, denn erst 1983 hob der Bundesstaat sein Gesetz zur Rassenklassifizierung auf. Die New York Times berichtete über diese Entwicklung in „Louisiana Repeals Black Blood Law“.
I was born in Los Angeles but my family is Creole, from the 7th Ward. Stories about “the oId country” I heard growing up included stories about the almost panicked efforts of white people to police the color line in New Orleans, to cleanly separate the races. I heard as many stories about some Creoles transgressing the line by “passing” — letting themselves be perceived as white in order to hold a job or get fair treatment — and living in terror of being found out.
Pope Leo has been outed, so to speak, to the great astonishment and satisfaction of Black people and particularly of Creoles. When I told my mother about his lineage, she was amazed, and then stoked — there is no other word for it. She’s stoked not just because a Creole from the provincial 7th Ward has ascended to the world stage. He’s also the pope of an ancient, all-powerful church that was part of the racial elite that made life in the American South so suffocating for people of color. Yet in their insulated neighborhoods Creoles made the Catholic Church into a community institution that was as culturally Creole as red beans, jambalaya and Mardi Gras. It was markedly different from the mainstream church, one of many ways Black people made the most out of segregation.
This church migrated west along with the waves of Creoles who left New Orleans for Los Angeles in the 1940s and ’50s — my family among them. Los Angeles was the last big city that promised more opportunity and, as important, less obsession with the color line.
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US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz in an interview published by Fox News misled millions of viewers and subscribers about US support to Ukraine in the past and a minerals development deal expected to be signed by Kyiv in the near future.
The former US special forces operator and Congressman made the inaccurate and misleading comments about Ukraine during an interview with Fox’s Brian Kilmeade.
Corruption in Ukraine
Waltz’s remarks to Kilmeade begin here:
Waltz said Ukraine is a disastrously corrupt country and the oversight of US resources given to Ukraine is poorly tracked.
Waltz said: “I will say Ukraine was one of, and is one of, the most corrupt countries in the world. We always have to protect the taxpayers’ dollars. And there have been billions going in. And I don’t think, remember, I don’t think the previous administration had all of the appropriate oversight going in. So we have to keep a hard eye on that.”
The part about Ukraine being one of the world’s most corrupt countries is false.
The part about the US not having sufficient oversight over resources sent to Ukraine is true, but highly misleading.
According to Transparency International’s 2024 Corruptions Perceptions Index, corruption in Ukraine is mid-range on a worldwide standard, at 105th place among 180 countries, along with Serbia, sandwiched between Dominican Republic and Algeria.
In Europe Ukraine was rated less corrupt than Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina and NATO member state Turkey, but more corrupt than Hungary and Bulgaria.
For reference, according to Transparency International, Waltz’s own country, the United States, was rated 28th place in 2024, worse by four spots compared to 24th place in 2023.
An October 2024 US Defense Department Inspector General review of assistance to Ukraine found that about half of recent American support was not always documented to Department of Defense accounting standards. The insufficient record-keeping was not, the review said, necessarily proof of improper use of US resources.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Kyiv officials have repeatedly stated that US weaponry is critical to national survival and that misdirection of US arms for corrupt purposes would be absurd and impossible because the entire nation is at war.
Further, Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have said, US inspectors are welcome to audit any US resources sent to Ukraine, including visiting the fighting front to see weapons in action against the Russian army, should the American inspectors wish. Zelensky’s most recent declaration that Ukraine’s books are open to US auditors was on Friday, April 25, during an interview with Daily Wire reporter Ben Shapiro.
US protection for minerals agreement
Waltz said that Zelensky and Ukraine had missed a “huge opportunity” to receive US support and protection by failing to sign a rare earths exploitation agreement with the Trump administration.
Opening up Ukraine’s resources to US development would give Ukraine reliable security, Waltz argued.
He said: “Rather than trying to correct the president of the United States, and the vice president, in the Oval Office, when he [Zelensky] was invited there for the first meeting, and could have sat side-by-side with the president, signing a minerals deal that bound our economies together for the foreseeable future. You want to talk about a security guarantee? That would have been phenomenal. I think that was a historic and missed opportunity.”
Trump administration officials led by Waltz have repeatedly stated that the US would not give Ukraine hard security guarantees protecting Ukraine against Russia, similar to NATO Article 5, under any circumstances.
