The contours of Donald Trump's second term are gradually emerging. It will change the world more than any event since the end of the Cold War.
Two factors will determine the course of events:
 Trump's America First policies
 The budget deficit reduction imposed by conservatives
Trump's mercantilist thinking calls for reducing the US trade deficit by erecting tariff walls or by non-tariff discrimination against trading partners.
In order to reduce the budget deficit, savings could relate to
 Social benefits (as suggested by Elon Musk)
 Defense costs (at the expense of allies)

The newly generated tariff revenues should reduce the budget deficit, make imported goods more expensive and result in corresponding inflationary price increases.

Major exporting countries - Japan, Germany, China, Italy - will continue to try and shift as much production as possible to the USA. This will result in surging investments, which would further stimulate the already strong growth in America.

Conversely, traditional exporting countries will experience a reduction in industrial capacity and resulting unemployment. Overproduction, rising stockpiles and loss of income would affect entire branches of industry.

At the same time, a partial withdrawal of the USA from the common defense would force Allies to significantly increase their defense spending. Both factors taken together - industrial contraction and rising defense costs - could create crises in these countries and lead to internal conflicts that could even threaten the existence of weak countries such as Italy or Greece. 

Heinrich von Loesch
 

Weakening Europe
There is a historic design of Trump for Europe. Also supported by Musk. Weaken it, make it more fragile, more vulnerable, less competitive. “I'll tell you something very hard: Europe is no longer a problem for anybody. Unfortunately, it is no longer an industrial competitor because it has almost self-destroyed itself. It is not an economic competitor anymore because even there it has been weakened and relegated to a supporting role in both finance and stock values. It is not a competitor on energy and raw materials because we don't have any and are totally dependent on other nations, primarily China, for all strategic materials and those needed for new technologies, such as rare earths. Europe every year is much less interesting and much less relevant in the world.”

Steve Bannon:

"I don’t stay up at night worrying about Russian influence on Europe. No. 1, their military hasn’t even got to Kyiv. In three years, they couldn’t get there. They haven’t taken Kharkiv even. You know why I don’t stay awake at night? Because the Europeans don’t stay awake at night. They don’t consider Russia a real threat. If they did they would throw a lot more money and troops into the game,” he went on. “If you look at NATO, I don’t think it can put together two combat divisions of Europeans that are ready to fight,” he scoffed, complaining NATO had turned into an American protectorate, rather than being an alliance.

 


Eines der amüsanteren Ereignisse des Jahres ist der Aufruhr, den ein Interview des Milliardärs Elon Musk in der WamS auslöste.
Musk sagte, dass nur die rechtsextreme Partei AfD Deutschland und seine kränkelnde Wirtschaft retten könne. Dieser Meinungsartikel hatte eine erstaunliche Wirkung: Redakteure protestierten gegen die Veröffentlichung; eine Redakteurin erklärte ihren Rücktritt. Es überrascht nicht, dass auch andere deutsche Parteien gegen das Lob für die AfD und das Recht von Herrn Musk auf Meinungsäußerung protestierten. Kurzum: Es brodelte in der Öffentlichkeit.

Die Affäre hat eine lustige Seite: Die deutsche Öffentlichkeit mag die AfD offensichtlich nicht und ist verärgert über einen Ausländer, der diese Partei gut findet und sich in einer Zeitung darüber äußert. Schlimmer noch: Er wird verdächtigt, dass er vielleicht sogar ein paar seiner Millionen absondern könnte, um dieser Partei zum Sieg zu verhelfen.

Warum hat Musk überhaupt eine Meinung zur deutschen Innenpolitik? Man könnte einen Blick auf sein Umfeld werfen. Es gibt eine enge Freundin, die er bewundert und die eine klare Meinung zu befreundeten Parteien im Nachbarland haben könnte: Giorgia Meloni. Sie hat sich kürzlich von ihrem eher peinlichen italienischen Freund getrennt und ist wieder eine freie Frau, deren strahlende Schönheit Musk verzaubert.

Auf die Frage nach Elon Musk beschrieb sie (Giorgia Meloni) den Tesla-Patron als „eine große Persönlichkeit unserer Zeit, einen außergewöhnlichen Innovator, der immer die Zukunft im Blick hat.

Giorgia Meloni: 'Musk, ein Genie, das als Ungeheuer dargestellt wird.

Bisher hat sich niemand die Mühe gemacht, herauszufinden, wie Musk auf den Sturm im Wasserglas reagiert, den er - vielleicht sogar unerwartet - in Deutschland bewirkt hat. Wie kommt es, dass sich die deutsche Öffentlichkeit so lautstark über Musk und die AfD echauffiert, wenn das Problem nicht diese Partei ist, sondern die Millionen von Deutschen, die offenbar rechtsextremes Gedankengut hegen und deshalb eine geeignete Partei wählen, die zufällig AfD heißt.

Burkhart Fürst

 

 

Der Zeitplan ist seit vielen Monaten bekannt, trotz der Zweifel, die von vielen Immobilienfachleuten geäußert wurden. Ab dem 1. Januar 2025 dürfen Wohnungen, die in der Energieeffizienzdiagnose (DPE) als G (schlechteste Kategorie in Frankreich, vergleichbar mit H in Deutschland) eingestuft werden, nicht mehr vermietet werden. Nach Berechnungen der Agentur für den ökologischen Übergang (Ademe) gibt es in Frankreich fast 600.000 solcher Wohnungen.
Ab Januar werden sich die vermieteten G-Wohnungen in einer seltsamen Situation befinden. Entweder wird es unmöglich sein, einen neuen Mietvertrag ohne Bauarbeiten zu unterzeichnen, oder die Mieter haben die Möglichkeit, eine Klage gegen den Vermieter wegen ungeeigneten Wohnraums einzureichen. Dieses Verfahren kann zu einer Senkung oder einem Einfrieren der Miete führen, bis die Arbeiten abgeschlossen sind.

Was werden die Vermieter tun? „Es gab viele Verkaufsangebote in den Jahren 2021 und 2022, direkt nach der Veröffentlichung des Dekrets über das schrittweise Verbot der Vermietung von Wohnungen nach Energiezertifikat, erklärt Me Priscille Caignault im Namen der Notaires de France. Aber derzeit und in den kommenden Monaten verhalten sich Energieschleudern wie andere Güter auch, ihr Preis sinkt zwar, aber die Verkäufe laufen nicht heiß.“

Ouest France

 

 

Das Milliardärskabinett Trump wirft bereits seinen Schatten auf das Weltgeschehen. Was wird noch kommen? Das baldige Erscheinen eines unberechenbaren, sprunghaften Präsidenten mit einer Entourage von Egomanen und Volksverächtern, die stolz auf einen großen Wahlsieg pochen.

Nur vier Jahre, tröstet sich die Welt. Wir werden vier Jahre aushalten müssen, wir werden lächeln und versuchen, wenig Schatten zu werfen. Es gab schon schlimmere vier Jahre, können die Menschen sich trösten. Nach den vier Jahren werden die Dinge wieder zur Normalität zurückkehren, und man wird versuchen, den Schaden zu beheben und das Versäumte nachzuholen.

Vier Jahre sind auch für den Hauptakteur, Donald Trump, entscheidend. In dieser Zeit wird er versuchen, das Unveränderliche zu ändern und sich vor dem Verlust von Macht, dem Zugriff der Justiz und dem Sturz in die Bedeutungslosigkeit zu schützen.

Ganz einfach: Er wird versuchen, eine neue Präsidentschaftswahl ohne ihn zu verhindern.
Wie das geht, hat sein Amtskollege Volodymyr Zelensky gezeigt:
Zelenskys Amtszeit sollte ursprünglich im Mai 2024 enden, doch die anhaltende russische Invasion und die Verhängung des Kriegsrechts verhinderten die Durchführung der regulär angesetzten Präsidentschaftswahlen. Er wird voraussichtlich bis zum Ende des russisch-ukrainischen Krieges Präsident bleiben.

Könnte Trump die Wahl 2028 verhindern? Oder könnte er es schaffen, wie Franklin D. Roosevelt wiedergewählt zu werden?
Roosevelt war der erste und einzige Präsident, der 1940 und 1944 eine dritte und vierte Amtszeit gewinnen konnte indem er aufgrund seines günstigen Umgangs mit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg weiterhin relativ komfortable Siege erzielte.

In beiden Fällen ist "Krieg“ das entscheidende Kriterium. Um die Wahl 2028 abzuschaffen, zu verschieben oder zu gewinnen, braucht Trump Krieg.
Krieg gegen wen? China, Russland, Iran und Nordkorea sind die derzeitig sich anbietenden Kriegsgegner. Vielleicht schließen sich in den nächsten vier Jahren weitere an, etwa Dänemark wegen Grönland. Oder Kanada. Oder Mexiko.
Wie dem auch sei, Trump wird nicht einfach abtreten wie Obama und Biden und so viele andere vor ihm. Das Jahr 2028 dürfte für die USA und die Welt spannend werden.

Heinrich von Loesch
 
PS: Es gibt noch eine krieglose Variante: wenn es den von Trump gepriesenen Milizen gelänge, mit einem zweiten Sturm auf das Kapitol Tatsachen zu schaffen, die ihrem Idol Trump das Weisse Haus auf Dauer sichern. Ein Problem jedoch: schwer bewaffnete Milizen mit zehntausenden Mitgliedern, darunter viel Polizei und Justiz, könnten versuchen, die Macht direkt zu übernehmen, ohne Trumps Vermittlung und Hilfe. 
 
Update
January 23, 2025

WASHINGTON, DC - Congressman Andy Ogles introduced a House Joint Resolution to amend the Constitution of the United States to allow a President to be elected for up to but no more than three terms.

Update II

President Donald Trump never misses a chance to foreshadow a third term. 

During the National Prayer Breakfast on Thursday, Trump randomly suggested he would run for another term despite others telling him he couldn’t.  

“They say I can’t run again. That’s the expression. Sir. And somebody said, ‘I don’t think you can.’ Ooh!” Trump said, chuckling. 

Politico, the outlet Trump has targeted with a new false conspiracy theory, compiled a list of ways the president might make a grab for power in the next few years. 

He could generate a movement to repeal the 22nd Amendment by passing another amendment—which would be virtually impossible since it would require 38 states, including many blue states, to ratify the new amendment. 

Trump could also exploit a potential “vice president” loophole in the amendment. The idea goes that Trump would be elected as vice president, then the president—say, JD Vance—would resign and allow Trump to immediately ascend back to the presidency.

 

Update III 

Trump says ‘there are methods’ for seeking third term in White House

In an interview Trump said he wasn’t joking when he alluded to a purported loophole for a third term as president. Donald Trump has said there are “methods” – if not “plans” – to circumvent the constitutional limit preventing US presidents from serving three terms.

In an interview aired Sunday on NBC, Trump was asked about his trying to stay in office beyond his second presidency, a specter he has repeatedly raised while sometimes claiming he is just joking.

Trump told host Kristen Welker “there are methods which you could do it” – and this time made it a point to say he was not joking.

“Well, there are plans,” Trump said to Welker. “There are – not plans. There are methods – there are methods which you could do it, as you know.”

Welker alluded to a purported loophole some Trump supporters have fantasized about finding in which he could be the running mate to his vice-president, JD Vance, or someone else in the 2028 election. The person to whom Trump would be the running mate in that scenario could then immediately resign after winning and being sworn in as president, letting Trump take over by succession.

 

America 2025:


My family Is Terrified So We Are Self Deporting

I'm a gringo who has travelled the world not simply visiting but having lived for extended periods of time in three foreign countries. I've seen how the other half lives. I am nearing retirement after a career in software engineering.

We have decided to throw in the towel in America, and make a move out of the country. We are all studying French and plan to relocate to the exurbs of Paris. My uncle retired near Orange and my cousin still lives in Paris, so we are not entirely without connections but it's still a huge change and there will be nothing easy about it.

To me, at this point, it's like 1938 Germany all over again, concentration camps in Texas and Guantanamo, Jackbooted thugs arresting long term residents on their way to work or as they do their weekly shopping, or invading churches and schools to arrest...8 year old "criminal aliens"? That's not border enforcement, that's out and out fascism, period.

My wife (born Colombian), even though a naturalized citizen for decades, lives in daily fear. She rarely leaves the house and when she does she makes sure to carry her passport. But that is still cold comfort as Stephen Miller has already promised to go through every naturalization application going back decades, looking for any "i" not dotted, any "t" not crossed and using that as an excuse to strip naturalized citizenship away. My daughter stands aghast at the thought of having her rights stripped from her, not just abortion (we are in a blue state thankfully), but also less well known issues such as having her property ownership rights stripped away and having to depend on a husband for his discretion on such things (see project 2025) or being forced to stay in an abusive marriage because no-fault divorce if it should come to that, would be eliminated (again project 2025).

In my opinion our country is lost and there is no saving it, not in my lifetime. I think we have passed the point of no return. So yeah, I'm running. Tired of the fight, I just want to protect my family and pass the torch to the younger generations....My work and achievements for democracy, modest as they may have been, have sustained me and kept me sane. But I just have no more to give and I have to think beyond my political interests and focus on my family. We are all frightened and don't have the resources to keep up the fight.

 

 

Implementing Project 2025

Project 2025 architects are among those behind the American Accountability Foundation and their blacklists targeting people of color

One recent list created by the American Accountability Foundation (AAF) includes the names of mostly Black people with roles in government health alleged to have some ties to diversity initiatives.

A significant proportion of the nominees targeted by AAF – including Brown Jackson, Cook and Omarova – were women of color.

The dozens of public employees whose information was collected in “dossiers” on the DEI watchlist site are overwhelmingly people of color. Of 44 profiles listed under agencies at the time of reporting, 29 were people of color, and 20 were women of color alone. Just five were white men.

“The fact that many on the list are people of color just adds another layer of vileness to the project,” Heidi Beirich, chief strategy officer of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE) said.

The Guardian

 

 

Now he is laying a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports including from Canada and Mexico.  Tomorrow.  They sort of drop this during the Super Bowl.

What do you suppose this will do to the cost of, like, everything, but especially infrastructure projects, cars, aircraft manufacturing, and oh.  We have a housing shortage.  We have planned mass transit projects in the works.  And it isn’t as if we can restart our steel industry tomorrow, if in fact we really want that level of pollution in this country anymore.  I remember it well.  The skies were black and the rivers burned.  Flying into Cleveland at night was like a descent into hell.  Same with the South Side.  

All my friends who were born and raised on the South Side are dead from cancer already.  I miss them.  They were only in their 60’s.

I am so beyond angry.

This is vandalism.

And, they’re laying off EPA workers who protect the Great Lakes.  Vought shut down the bureau that protects consumers from financial abuse.  They want to destroy FEMA per the puppy murderer.  Do you believe that person is in charge of DHS??? OMG. 

All I can say is don’t steal a chicken.  And avoid gravel pits.  

They honest to god are trying to destroy this country.  I cannot believe what I’m seeing.

Colorado Blue
 
 
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Jan. 31 ordered that Black History Month, Women's History Month and others were officially "dead" and that the military would no longer mark them.... 

The decision to abandon the Black engineering event marks a significant shift in military recruiting strategy -- and sparked calls of discrimination.

"It's f---ing racist," one active-duty Army general told Military.com on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation. "For the Army now, it's 'Blacks need not apply' and it breaks my heart."

Military.com

 

Donald Trump’s first election to the presidency in 2016 triggered an energetic defense of democracy from the American establishment. But his return to office has been met with striking indifference. Many of the politicians, pundits, media figures, and business leaders who viewed Trump as a threat to democracy eight years ago now treat those concerns as overblown—after all, democracy survived his first stint in office. In 2025, worrying about the fate of American democracy has become almost passé. The timing of this mood shift could not be worse, for democracy is in greater peril today than at any time in modern U.S. history.

 

 

Thus while Trump could not LEGALLY run directly for a third term (and thus should be denied ballot access as a Presidential candidate again), he could be the running mate of Vance or someone else. 

What most folks don/’t know is that both the VP and the President are sworn in BEFORE what we see at the inauguration — this is done privately (in case the inauguration is running late) so that the office does NOT go vacant at 12 Noon on January 20.  Once  VP Trump is sworn in, either the President resigns or having refused to take the oath so there is a vacancy and then VP Trump could be sworn in as President (which is probably how Trump would want it done — he would want the show).  Trump could then nominate the presidential candidate as VP under the 25th Amendment,  Of course this entire scenario, in either fashion, requires the complicity of the that person —  would Vance actually be willing to go along?  Would Thiel and the others who promoted Vance let him?  That is a separate question.

@teacherken

 

 

Donald Trump, supposed champion of the working class, is stocking his Cabinet with billionaires:

 

 

Linda McMahon: Secretary of Education

A former professional wrestling magnate and billionaire, McMahon is Trump’s pick to run the Department of Education

 

Howard Lutnick: Commerce Secretary

A cryptocurrency enthusiast and investment banking billionaire, Lutnick is also a backer of Trump’s potentially disastrous tariff plans.

 

Scott Bessent: Treasury Secretary

A billionaire hedge fund manager who openly pushes for austerity measures to reduce the deficit,

 

Steven Witkoff: Middle East Envoy

Witkoff made his billions as a New York real estate developer and has ties to oil interests in the region he will likely become a liaison to

 

Jared Isaacman: NASA administrator

Isaacman, a billionaire via a payment process firm he founded, is an advocate for privatizing space programs.

 

Warren Stephens: Ambassador to United Kingdom

Trump tapped Stephens, an investment banker and Republican megadonor (what a coincidence!), to be the next ambassador to the U.K.

 

Charles Kushner: Ambassador to France

Charles Kushner (family net worth of over $7 billion) is the father of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Trump pardoned the elder Kushner, a tax fraud felon,

 

Elon Musk: Co-Chair of Department of Government Efficiency

What is there to say about the world’s richest mid-life crisis? Musk poured billions into buying Twitter, turned it into X, and made it a right-wing propaganda cesspool in service of Trump’s campaign

 

Vivek Ramaswamy: Co-Chair of Department of Government Efficiency