Written on 22 September 2025.

Many analysts have long been wondering what the Russian population thinks about the war in Ukraine and the Kremlin’s policies.

Ugo Poletti interviewed Russian political scientist and political commentator Alexander Morozov, Member of the Council of the Free Russia Forum. He has lived in the Czech Republic since 2013. In 2023, the Russian authorities declared him a “foreign agent.” Morozov used to be teacher at Ruhr University (Bochum) and Charles University (Prague).

Morozov:  When Putin speaks of the need to eliminate the “root cause of the war,” these are incomprehensible words in world politics. In international conflict resolution, it is impossible to pose questions of a global nature. Yet Putin does so, and within Russia he meets with complete understanding. The population is persuaded that Russia is defending itself from “NATO expansion,” from “American biolabs in Ukraine,” from the West’s intent to undermine the so-called “Russian cultural code,” and so on. Russians believe the root cause of the war is simply that “they don’t like us.” And therefore, “although we Russians are a peaceful people, we can bare our teeth.”

One can put it this way: 65-68% of Russians, including the educated class and entrepreneurs with experience in global markets, tell themselves: We are for peace, but on the terms laid down by Vladimir Putin. That is why the Kremlin enjoys stable support for the war it is waging.

As soon as economic fortunes improved, from 2005 the Kremlin launched a large-scale program of preparation for a future war. Within the Russian General Staff, the view took hold that a major war around 2030-35 was inevitable. In 2014, the Kremlin began testing its entry into that war – and has continued ever since.

The population as a whole sees no alternative to Putinism as a model of governance. Every day, the Russian parliament stamps out grotesque new laws restricting civil rights, and the people simply press their ears tighter to their heads.

An assessment of the concrete factors shaping attitudes to the war:

• The first factor: recruitment is built on very large payments. Russian contract soldiers are paid more than in many armies worldwide. Military families receive not only generous salaries, but also various benefits – mortgages, children’s higher education, and so forth. As a result, several million families are now affected.
• The second factor: for two years, arms manufacturers have received steady state orders, which has generated major economic activity in a number of regions.
• The third: businesses involved in import substitution, shadow supplies and construction works in the occupied territories have found new opportunities. This has created new situations for many small entrepreneurs.

Taken together, this has produced millions of social groups who have become beneficiaries of the war. Unsurprisingly, they support Kremlin policy

 Why joining military service?

A recruitment specialist admits that many of them are poor. "But almost everyone cites patriotic feelings when asked about their motivation. Some mention debt. Of course, everyone is confident they'll survive, but they can't stop thinking about death altogether."…...

Younger males sign up because they are motivated, as a social worker involved in recruitment says, by "the fact that they're losers. For them, going through the war is one of the few goals in life that's realistically achievable."

"They say it like that: 'I'm 35, I'm a total loser, this is my last chance.' You can completely screw up, get drunk, be lazy, lose your shit, have failed in your relationships, have no family, have been laying around for years playing computer games.

And then they ask you: 'Want to play another game?' There's a non-zero chance it won't go well. But you'll also have money, a profession, status, respect, and the attention of society. And their eyes light up.

Many see military service as the only way out of a life of low-paid drudgery. As Ivan, a fitter, says, "salaries in Russia are low. You're educated, well-read, and you work, but you have no money. If I had a peacetime salary of 200,000 rubles, I wouldn't go to war."

Large numbers of elderly Russian men are being attracted by fat recruitment bonuses to join the war in Ukraine for the financial benefit of their families. "I've lived my life, we'll get an apartment for my son now, so what if I get killed?", asks one.

@chriso-wiki.bsky.social -- Daily Kos

Written on 20 September 2025.

Three factors currently determine Putin's European policy:

• How reliable is Trump as Putin's friend and supporter? Would Trump (as NATO) help the EU (Poland) if Russia attacked?

•  How long will it take Europeans to build up armed forces capable of resisting Russia?

Given the fragmentation of European armed forces and its arms industry, it is unlikely that the EU will be able to defend itself against a battle proof military power such as Russia. Individual countries such as Poland, Finland, and Denmark could put up heroic but ultimately futile resistance. Austria would try to follow Switzerland into neutrality. Germany and France would have to give up resistance after a few days. Italy and Spain would likely spare their meager military forces by surrendering immediately.
Nevertheless, Putin must fear that the EU could develop surprising vitality in times of war (as Britain and the US did in World War II) and, thanks to its great economic power, could gradually overcome its armaments and military weakness over the course of a few years. Europe would grow stronger, but only during the course of the war. For Putin, this means that Russia would have to immediately and completely conquer all of Europe – up to the Atlantic (Medvedyev) – in order to prevent new armament factories and military units from springing up behind the front lines, as happened in Ukraine, a development which could enable Europe to continue the war for years.

•  Is there a risk that, as a result of the midterm elections (11/26), Congress could force Trump to drop Russia and support Ukraine against his will? While this is conceivable, it may be that Trump could be unable, for personal reasons, to take any action against Russia other than verbal.

As long as Ukraine keeps fighting, Putin will likely refrain from attacking Europe. Once he has won the war and Ukraine's military and armaments potential has increased Russia's power, he might feel strong enough to take on continental Europe, with Trump's tacit or open encouragement. Only Britain, Switzerland and the Nordics might succeed to remain islands in a Russian sea.

Brüssel schiebt die Entscheidung über fast 300 Milliarden Euro an eingefrorenen russischen Vermögenswerten weiterhin vor sich her, gelähmt durch Belgiens Angst, den Ruf von Euroclear zu schädigen und den Euro zu untergraben. Aber hier ist die brutale Wahrheit: Eine Verzögerung jetzt wird später weitaus kostspieliger sein. Wenn Europa sich weigert, die Ukraine nicht nur bei der Verteidigung zu unterstützen, sondern auch bei Angriffen auf kritische russische Infrastrukturen – wie Ölraffinerien, die den Krieg finanzieren –, wird der Kontinent bald eine viel höhere Rechnung bezahlen müssen. Diese Rechnung wird nicht in Euro in den Bilanzen gemessen werden, sondern in Luftschutzbunkern, zusammenbrechenden Volkswirtschaften und russischen Truppen, die die Grenzen der NATO testen. Die europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs haben diesen Krieg verschlafen und es versäumt, ihre eigenen Wähler auf die harte Realität vorzubereiten: Putin hat nicht vor, bei der Ukraine Halt zu machen.

Written on 21 September 2025.

 Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin must be dissatisfied with the Ukraine war and its repercussions. Russia's economy is suffering; the once large cash reserves are dwindling. Huge losses in miltary manpower -- originally seen as a welcome way of limiting the demographic growth of  Russia's colored Asiatic populations -- are beginning to come at the expense of white/European Russians, causing resentment among Putin's most loyal populace.

The war economy remains the only activity at which Russia excels. But supporting the war is becoming more and more onerous for Russia's limited economy. New, additional sources of funding and weapons are needed. The friends -- China, North Corea and Iran -- are helping, but much more is needed. And it's there, beckoning right across the borders, up for grabs.

The tiny Baltics cannot offer much substance, but booming, westernized Poland is a handsome prey that could feed Russia's hungry war machine for a few months. And beyond Poland there is Germany: rich, modern, enticing.

Imagine, how Germany could help Russia reattain supremacy in Europe!  Trainloads of industrial equipment could be shipped to Russia, bank vaults could be seized, millions of BMW. Volvo and Mercedes cars could grace Russian country roads; Russia and Germany: an invincible combination. 

News suggest that the White House has taken another decisive step toward abandoning Europe and leaving it up for grabs by Russia. In the course of its overall review of foreign assistance (REEVALUATING AND REALIGNING UNITED STATES FOREIGN AID, January 20, 2025), the Trump administration is not only ending European security programs focused on Russia but is also secretly "pausing"  sales of American armaments to Europe.

Background: In early July 2025, President Trump stopped providing Ukraine with American arms. However, he opened a loophole: anybody well heeled enough to afford American armaments could order them and gift them to Ukraine. Trump was probably not expecting that his idea of bringing sales and jobs to the US would work, assuming the Europeans would be too poor and stingy to waste sufficient dollars on Ukraine's war.  Europe proved him wrong. Instead of abandoning Ukraine it launched a vigorous rearmaments drive at national and regional levels, And: it announced it would purchase lots of US arms for the brave but notoriously corrupt Ukrainians.

This unexpected development had three consquences:

-- it showed that the US currently cannot afford facing two enemies similtaneously, China in the Pacific and Russia in Europe, because the US arms industry lacks the capacity to step up output sufficiently in response to demand.

-- Trump is focused on blocking China's efforts to replace the US as the world's top power by forcing the Pentagon to concentrate all available firepower in the Pacific arena.

 Officials and observers of the Trump administration say the change is on brand with Colby’s (Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby) belief that China is the only country that has the ambition, resources, and military might to knock the U.S. off its pedestal as the world’s leading superpower. The only way to stop its bid for global dominance, Colby has argued, is for the U.S. to pour everything it can into securing the Western Pacific—albeit, potentially, at the expense of European security. (The Atlantic)

-- Trump left it up to the Europeans to defend Ukraine and themselves without US assistance.

Unfortunately, Europe's armaments industries are in even worse condition than America's. France is currently submerged in domestic turmoil. In Germany, traditional peaceniks are trying to impede a vigorous rearmament effort. Italy and Spain are considering themselves well protected by Germany and France and therefore prefer to spend their money on things less boring than defense.

It will likely take a decade for Europe to face up to the military power of a Russia freed from the shackles of the Ukraine war.  For Europe the question is how long Ukraine could last in protecting Europe -- long enough for the old continent to become able to defend itself?

Europe should fear a Russia that would result from the merger with a defeated Ukraine. Moscow would inherit all those modern Western NATO-style armaments which Ukraine has obtained, as well as those magnificent hidden Ukrainian arms factories. Ukraine's battle hardened soldiers would face the choice of either fighting for Russia or being punished and killed in Siberian prison camps. It is troubling to imagine a Putin now grinning when watching Western industries setting up fancy armaments factories in Ukraine. Today a gift to Ukraine -- tomorrow a boon for Russia?

Ukraine now has by far the largest and most battle-hardened army in Europe, and an innovative defence industrial sector with much to teach European firms. The overall capacity of Ukraine’s defence sector at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion was $1 billion; this year it is expected to reach $35 billion (Centre for European Reform) 

Heinrich von Loesch

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What if Ukraine goes nuclear and becomes invincible? 

Thirty years ago, on 5 December 1994, at a ceremony in Budapest, Ukraine joined Belarus and Kazakhstan in giving up their nuclear arsenals in return for security guarantees from the United States, the UK, France, China and Russia.

Strictly speaking, the missiles belonged to the Soviet Union, not to its newly independent former republics.

But a third of the USSR’s nuclear stockpile was located on Ukrainian soil, and handing over the weapons was regarded as a significant moment, worthy of international recognition. (BBC).

Ukraine has surely regretted giving up its nuclear arsenal a thousand times over.

However, there is still a way for Ukraine to regain nuclear protection without provoking Russia into a nuclear attack:

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Written on 15 September 2025.

 President Trump told fellow NATO countries on Saturday that he will only impose new sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine if they stop purchasing Russian oil. (NPR)

Der amerikanische Präsident liebt es, kühne Aussagen zu machen und Forderungen zu stellen. Meistens verpuffen seine großspurigen Äußerungen jedoch und entlarven ihn als Prahler.

Das jüngste Beispiel: Er kündigte an, dass er bereit sei, Sanktionen gegen Russland zu verhängen, wenn die NATO-Staaten den Kauf von russischem Öl einstellen würden.

Diese Forderung trifft einige NATO-Länder hart, insbesondere die Türkei, Ungarn und die Slowakei. Es ist kaum vorstellbar, dass die Türkei oder Ungarn – die schamlos von den derzeit niedrigen Ölpreisen Russlands profitieren -– ihre Importe einstellen würden, um Trump zu gefallen.

Since 2023, Ankara has been the third-largest buyer of Russian oil, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. It has given no sign of cutting those ties. (DW)

"According to our data, (Turkey) is the third largest Russian oil importer globally," Petras Kanitas, a Vilnius-based analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told RFE/RL on September 15. "Turkey buys Russian oil mainly because it's heavily discounted," he added. "They also benefit by refining Russian crude oil and selling fuel products to Europe." (Radio Free Europe)

Trumps Forderung verpufft daher, was bedeutet, dass sie ihren Zweck erfüllt, prägnant und aktiv zu klingen, ohne seinen Freund Putin in eine schwierige Lage zu bringen. Und den schwarzen Peter für das Misslingen der Initiative bei den Europäern abzuladen.

Ähnlich verhält es sich mit dem israelischen Angriff auf Katar Der israelische Angriff auf Hamas-Führer in Katar hat in den Vereinigten Staaten zu den üblichen Schlagzeilen geführt, dass der Präsident mit Israel unzufrieden sei.

Wieder einmal lässt Israel Trump im Unklaren, während es einen Militärschlag durchführt.

Präsident Trump sagt jedoch, er sei „sehr unzufrieden mit der Art und Weise, wie das gehandhabt wurde“. Ist man in Jerusalem davon erschüttert?

A sixth Israeli official said it isn't the first time that the Trump administration "made things up" about their conversations with Israel due to political considerations.