A year has gone by since the world started suffering from and dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite all efforts, despite lockdowns and frantic search for vaccines we now seem to be back to square one.
The virus is mutating and the mutations are spreading uncontrollably. Mutations can be more contagious and able to sidestep vaccines. In many countries the damage done by aggressive new variants seems to wipe out progress made by vaccination.
Look at the case of Italy: as of February 20th, because of rising infections, the entire country could be sliding back into orange alert with the consequence of a stricter lockdown.
Francesco Menichetti, head of infective diseases at a hospital in Pisa, says: The British variant is already present in one third of the cases and it is more aggressive. It is showing up in the provinces of Florence, Pistoia and Pisa. The Brazilian virus is occurring in Siena province, and the South African variant ist showing up in Arezzo.
He urges nationwide strict tracing of all infections as the only way to prevent a disaster which he calls terremoto, earthquake. He noticed infections are becoming more dangerous, and more young people are badly affected.
Dangerous mutations seem to compete with vaccinations in many countries:
Covid-19 Vaccination Delays Could Bring More Virus Variants, Impede Efforts to End Pandemic. Scientists say high rates of viral spread in a partially immunized population could encourage mutations...
Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, a professor of health policy at City University of New York who leads the research effort for PHICOR, a public health research group, said that coronaviruses have relatively high mutation rates and that it is likely that new variants of the virus will continue to emerge. “The question will be how different might these variants be,” he said. If a variant of the virus stops responding to the vaccine, “it will then be a matter of determining whether and when new vaccines will need to be produced.”
Developing new vaccines and making them available on a mass scale takes time even under conditions of top urgency, as we have learned over the past twelve months.
Let us be honest with ourselves: our prospects for dealing with the pandemic are not encouraging. At present, no one can credibly promise that herd immunity will be attained to end the pandemic. Mutations, shortage of effective vaccines in sufficient quantities, and the resistance of millions of no-vax people are the main obstacles, compounded by excessive cost, shortcomings and technical problems of some vaccines.
Time has come to fathom the depth of our global crisis. We must face the possibility that for a very long time lockdowns will be the new normal. No more socializing, no more travel, less or no dating. Virtual schooling. No more restaurants, bars, clubs, hotels. Entire sectors of the economy to disappear. No more government subsidies to suffering sectors and their laid-off staff.
Or, as an alternative, efforts to avoid recurrence of mass hospitalizations and mass burials as experienced in Wuhan and Bergamo in spring 2020.
Heinrich von Loesch
Written on .
George Washington. Photo: Wikipedia
My grandfather relished in telling of his immigration to America. Previously Jorge, he decided to be called by the English variant “George” when, together with my grandmother, they stepped off a Dutch cargo boat that began its journey in their native Argentina.
My grandfather’s first birthday in America was a memorable one — a February 22nd par excellence.
That day, he observed a grand parade with the American pomp and grandeur he had always heard about in Buenos Aires. The procession declared that “George” was the greatest American to ever live. My grandfather would quip with pride and humor, “all of this for me! Can you believe this is how America welcomed your zeide, Jorge?”
Of course, this was a parade to honor a different George — not Steinberg — but Washington, whose February 22nd birthday was once a cherished holiday. It’s now celebrated as “President’s Day.”
My late grandfather was not the first South American Jewish immigrant who rallied around George Washington. Back in 1792, the governor-general of Suriname wrote to the first president that a local Jew, David Nassy, “begged me to have the honor of remitting by him these lines to your Excellency … and the desire of living in a Country where, without regarding the difference of Religion in Individuals, personal merit is attended to, have led him to a determination of going to reside in the United States under the government of your Excellency.” The request was granted by Washington, and Nassy gratefully offered the president his “Services, [i]f I can render you any.”
Even before the first president’s famous epistle to the Touro Synagogue, “to bigotry no sanction; to persecution no assistance,” the Jews of America knew that Washington was their man. He invited the rabbi of New York’s Shearith Israel Congregation to act as a formal clergyman at the first Inauguration. This marked the first time since the ancient fall of Jerusalem that a Jewish minister performed in an official capacity for a head of state.
In this vein, in August 1789, Congregation Kahal Kadosh Beth Shalome in Richmond, Virginia, opened the celebration of its new synagogue constitution with the toast: “The President of the United States, may his administration secure to the citizens of America the Liberty obtained by his valor.”
During the American Revolution, in the winter camps at Valley Forge, a Jewish immigrant from Prussia, Michael Hart, was a corporal in the Continental Army. His daughter wrote the following in her diary about her father’s wartime service: “Let it be remembered that Michael Hart was a Jew, practically, pious, a Jew reverencing and strictly observant of the Sabbath and Festivals; dietary laws were also adhered to, although he was compelled to be his own Shochet. Mark well that he, Washington … even during a short sojourn became for the hour the guest of the worthy Jew.”
So large has Washington loomed in Jewish hearts that this tale, absent details of the only kosher meal he is known to have had, morphed into folklore unlike any other. One iteration reads: “It is mid-winter at Valley Forge. Everyone is cold. Frostbite is widespread. Everyone has given up hope. George Washington is depressed. One night, looking for inspiration, George goes for a walk through the camp. He finds one Jewish member of the Continental Army lighting the haunkkiya … the soldier explains Hanukkah, Judah Maccabee, and everything to George, who re-finds his courage in the process — enough to stand up when the boat crosses the Delaware. Later, the first President sends our Jewish soldier a silver Menorah … as a gift of appreciation, along with a letter which says, ‘Judaism has a lot to offer the world. You should be proud to be a Jew.’”
The alert reader will note that the Delaware Crossing occurred a year before Valley Forge, one of many reasons to doubt the story’s veracity. But never mind that. This Monday, as we honor the man who has long been an inspiration to the Jews, let’s celebrate Washington’s life, legacy, and ideals. As Purim approaches with its account of the political fragility Jews have endured through the ages, let’s dedicate ourselves to the memory of that great statesman who reigns unparalleled in the annals of history for securing Jewish freedom, safety, prosperity, and the rights of all Americans. Happy President’s Day!
Noch nie seit Benito Mussolini war Italiens Politik so sehr auf eine einzige Person zugeschnitten: Mario Draghi. Alle grösseren Parteien wollen ihn unterstützen, mit Ausnahme der Neofaschisten von Giorgia Meloni – doch selbst sie wurden von anderen Neofaschisten der Alleanza Nazionale AN aufgefordert, nicht gegen Draghi zu opponieren.
Eine für italiensche Verhältnisse geradezu unglaubliche Einstimmigkeit. Offensichtlich hat der Salotto, die Politklasse, begriffen, dass Draghi Italien die letzte Chance vor dem endgültigen Absturz bietet.
Er hat Staatspräsident Sergio Mattarella vor Annahme des Auftrags zur Regierungsbildung klar gemacht, dass er nicht bereit ist, die üblichen Machtspielchen des Salotto mitzumachen. Die Parteien scheinen das verstanden zu haben.
Noch sind die Hoffnungen, die Draghi verkörpert, gross. Ein Italiener, den Brüssel und die Welt kennt und respektiert. Ein Manager, der als Chef der Europäischen Zentralbank bewiesen hat, dass er mit einem Wort den Euro und Italiens Finanzen retten kann. Ein Experte, dem man zutraut, dass er die Europäische Union modernisieren und Italien-freundlicher gestalten könnte.
So gross sind die Hoffnungen, dass sie Super-Mario fast erdrücken könnten. Und sie erzeugen die bange Frage, was passiert, wenn Draghi nicht so liefern kann, wie Italien es erwartet? Die ersten Probleme tauchen schon bei der Gestaltung der Kabinettsliste auf. Wer bekommt die begehrten poltrone – die Lehnsessel der Ministerämter?
Noch kritischer wird es, wenn Draghi sein Arbeitsprogramm und Budget vorstellt. Werden die Parteien ihre in jahrelangen Grabenkämpfen ausgefeilten Positionen einem gesamtitalienischen Interesse unterordnen – werden sie Draghis Machtwort schlucken, wenn er Knoten durchhauen muss?
Die kommenden Wochen und hoffentlich Monate dürften spannend werden, für Italien und Europa. Brüssel, Berlin und Frankfurt werden Draghi die Däumchen halten, doch die Rating-Agenturen werden unbarmherzig zuschauen. Für sie gilt kein Draghi-Bonus.
Benedikt Brenner
Written on .
Italy has re-entered the small group of foreign creditor countries. Even with the pandemic, our credit position and therefore financial stability has improved. The ECB's purchase program has favoured the activities of companies and households.
Foreign assets exceeding liabilities
In its latest report on the foreign accounts of our economy, the Bank of Italy certified an important change: "At the end of September 2020, Italy's net foreign position was marginally in credit by 3.1 billion euros (0.2 per cent of GDP), after more than 30 years of continuous negative balances. The improvement with respect to the end of June, equal to 31.7 billion, is due for more than three quarters to the current account surplus".
For the first time since the mid-1980s, Italy has returned to having foreign assets in excess of liabilities. This result is the result of the narrow path, aimed at achieving greater financial stability, that our economy took in response to the so-called spread crisis. In fact, although Italy's foreign debt position has never reached or exceeded the 35 per cent of GDP set by the European Commission as the limit for macroeconomic imbalance, the Commission itself had to note that "the developments that occurred in Italy in 2011-2012 show that even a slightly negative net international investment position can make a country vulnerable to a reversal of foreign capital inflows, with negative repercussions for the economy". This confirms the thesis that countries with a negative net international investment position (NIIP) are more frequently subject to a loss of market confidence, resulting in a sudden stop in capital flows, default or restructuring of foreign debt and recourse to financial assistance from international bodies (IMF, World Bank or MES).
In order to understand how the Italian economy managed to return to a foreign surplus, it is necessary to look at current account and capital account flows accumulated in recent years. Net of valuation adjustments, the change within a given timeframe is equal to the current account and capital account balance recorded over the same period.
Figure 1 - Determinants of the change in Italy's net international investment position from Q1 2014 to Q3 2020. Data in billions of euros.
Source of data: Banca d’Italia
Breakdown by sector
As can be seen from Figure 1, the greatest contribution to the improvement in the Pne is linked to trade in goods. Weak domestic demand in recent years has compressed imports, bringing them well below the level of exports. The "Goods" account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus of around 357 billion euros from 2014 to the third quarter of 2020.
Another important positive contribution came from the "Primary Income" account. For a country that is a net debtor and has no capacity as a global financial center, one would expect primary incomes to be negative, to pay more interest and dividends abroad than it receives. On the other hand, Italy, thanks mainly to the reduction in interest rates resulting from the expansionary policies of the European Central Bank, has for four years now achieved a surplus in this item, which in 2020 will exceed 20 billion euros.
On the other hand, the "Services" account, which also includes flows linked to tourism, and "Secondary income", largely linked to remittances and net transfers to the EU, made a negative contribution. Finally, thanks to an improvement in the valuation of foreign assets or a decrease in the value of liabilities by approximately 127 billion, a positive net international investment position was achieved.
However, it is not evenly distributed among the various macro-sectors of the Italian economy.
The public institutional sectors - state and central bank - continue to have a largely negative net position. Banks, too, still have a debt position, albeit one that has improved considerably from around 260 billion in 2014 and the 400 billion reached during the years of the spread crisis.
On the other hand, the other sectors, consisting of non-banking companies and households, have almost doubled their net foreign assets from 2014 to date, from 546 billion at the beginning of 2014 to 1,087 billion in the third quarter of 2020. In these years, that is, Italians have continued to acquire net foreign assets, also favored by the ECB's purchase program, which has freed up additional liquidity to be invested in foreign securities and funds.
The latest macroeconomic forecasts, even assuming that the fiscal stimulus launched to deal with the effects of the pandemic will lead to a recovery in domestic demand and, therefore, in imports, see the current account surplus of the Italian economy still stable at 3% of GDP. The higher imports should, in fact, be balanced by a similar favorable trend in exports, a recovery in tourist flows and a positive balance in transfers with the EU as a result of the Recovery Fund. Italy's credit position and therefore its financial stability is set to improve. Weaknesses remain linked to the public sector, which is structurally in debt to the outside world, and to the banks, which have not yet recovered a positive Pne. Of less concern is the position of the Bank of Italy, which has worsened considerably over the last 10 years, but this is exclusively due to the balance with the Target2 Eurosystem. A balance that is a consequence of the ECB's monetary policy decisions and that, as repeated on a number of occasions, will have to be adjusted only in the unlikely event that a country decides to leave the single currency.
Even if the values attained by the large manufacturing countries (China, Germany, Japan) are far from being reached, in 2020 Italy has returned to be part of the foreign creditor countries, a "club" that until last quarter counted only eight EU countries and none of the so-called peripheral countries.
