Written on 05 January 2019.

Il governo sembra avere una lettura semplicistica del problema povertà. Il lavoro è senza dubbio la via d’uscita principale, ma i dati ci dicono che per un numero significativo di famiglie aumentare il numero di occupati potrebbe non essere così facile.

Reddito di cittadinanza e povertà

Secondo la lettura principale che ne dà il governo, il reddito di cittadinanza è una misura per accompagnare le persone fuori dalla povertà. Si dà loro un sussidio che perdono se rifiutano più di due offerte di lavoro. Lavoro e povertà sono visti come dimensioni alternative: se il beneficiario del trasferimento, grazie ai centri per l’impiego, troverà un lavoro, il problema della povertà sarà risolto. È una visione troppo semplicistica, perché in molte famiglie povere vi sono persone che lavorano.

La tabella 1 contiene la suddivisione delle famiglie in base al numero dei loro membri che lavorano. A sinistra, le statistiche sono relative a tutte le famiglie in povertà, mentre nella parte destra si riferiscono solo a quelle povere senza membri con almeno 60 anni. La povertà è definita come reddito inferiore al 60 o al 40 per cento del reddito mediano. La prima definizione è quella di povertà relativa Eurostat, la seconda è più severa e produce un numero di poveri simile a quello della povertà assoluta calcolata da Istat. Con qualche approssimazione, la linea al 40 per cento individua la platea interessata – in termini di numero di beneficiari attesi – dal reddito di cittadinanza. Definiamo per semplicità queste famiglie come povere assolute.

Considerando proprio la soglia più bassa, tra tutte le famiglie in povertà il 44 per cento ha membri occupati (40 per cento un occupato, 4 per cento due), mentre solo tra le famiglie senza membri anziani, cioè quelle più facilmente attivabili, la quota con almeno un lavoratore sale al 56 per cento. In circa la metà dei casi la povertà è dovuta alla mancanza di lavoro, ma nell’altra metà sembra dipendere dalla mancanza di un secondo reddito da lavoro.

Tabella 1 – Distribuzione delle famiglie povere per numero di lavoratori in famiglia

https://www.lavoce.info/wp-

In quante famiglie può aumentare il lavoro

Una conferma di questi dati proviene dalla variabile relativa alla low work intensity: in una famiglia c’è bassa intensità di lavoro se i suoi membri con età tra 18 e 59 anni (esclusi studenti fino a 24 anni) lavorano nel complesso meno del 20 per cento del tempo di lavoro potenziale. Tra le famiglie povere assolute senza membri anziani, solo il 50 per cento è a bassa intensità di lavoro. Ciò significa che nella metà dei nuclei in povertà assoluta i membri adulti sono già occupati per almeno il 20 per cento del loro tempo potenziale.

Vediamo dunque in quante famiglie povere senza membri anziani sarebbe possibile aumentare il numero di occupati. Dividiamole in due gruppi:

• Famiglie in cui il numero delle persone che lavorano è uguale al numero delle persone 18-59. In queste famiglie non è possibile aumentare il numero dei lavoratori.
• Famiglie in cui il numero delle persone che lavorano è inferiore a quello delle persone 18-59 anni.

Per le famiglie del gruppo 1 “il lavoro non basta”.

Tabella 2 – Suddivisione delle famiglie povere tra famiglie in cui NON è possibile aumentare il numero dei lavoratori (gruppo 1) e famiglie in cui è possibile (gruppo 2)

https://www.lavoce.info/wp-

La tabella 2 mostra che in un quarto delle famiglie povere non vi sono membri adulti occupabili e la percentuale è probabilmente sottostimata perché non basta avere l’età giusta per essere occupabili. Inoltre, tra le famiglie del gruppo 1 i membri adulti occupabili sono già attivi lavorativamente per il 70-80 per cento del loro tempo potenziale ed è difficile credere che tale intensità possa crescere con semplicità. Una persona con età 18-59, infatti, può non lavorare – del tutto o in parte del suo potenziale – non solo perché non riesce a (o non vuole) trovare un impiego, ma anche a causa di condizioni personali che le rendono difficile lavorare, ad esempio una cattiva condizione di salute, oppure la presenza in casa di familiari con pesanti invalidità che richiedono assistenza.

Definiamo in cattiva salute una persona che abbia risposto “molto male” alla domanda “come va la tua salute?” o che sia fortemente limitata nelle sue attività da problemi di salute. Assumiamo che una persona in cattiva salute non possa lavorare, se ora non lo fa già. Teniamo conto anche della presenza di invalidi in famiglia, assumendo che se ce n’è uno, allora vi sono bisogni di cura che impediscono di aumentare l’offerta di lavoro. Aggiungendo queste nuove condizioni, la percentuale di famiglie in cui il lavoro non può aumentare (gruppo 1) passa al 35 per cento sia per la povertà relativa che per quella assoluta (passerebbe al 30 per cento aggiungendo solo la condizione di cattiva salute individuale). Al Sud, dove la domanda di lavoro da parte delle imprese è già più bassa, la quota di famiglie con problemi ad aumentare il numero di occupati raggiungerebbe il 41 per cento (tabella 3).

Tabella 3 – Percentuale di famiglie in povertà assoluta che si trovano nel gruppo 1 (il numero di occupati non può aumentare) per area

https://www.lavoce.info/wp-

Il lavoro è senza dubbio la via d’uscita principale dalla povertà, ma questi dati ci dicono che in molte famiglie povere il lavoro è già presente, e che per molte aumentare il numero di occupati potrebbe non essere facile come si crede. Per le famiglie con membri “occupabili”, d’altra parte, il problema numero uno è la scarsa domanda di lavoro da parte delle imprese, in particolare nel Meridione. Nelle dichiarazioni del governo i centri per l’impiego avranno un ruolo fondamentale nel favorire l’occupazione per queste famiglie, un’ipotesi discutibile perché ovunque il lavoro si trova di solito per altre vie. In ogni caso, non si vede come i centri per l’impiego possano diventare più efficaci: tutti condividono l’impressione che abbiano bisogno di essere riformati e potenziati anche con nuovo personale, però per quasi tutto il 2019 le assunzioni nella pubblica amministrazione saranno bloccate dal maxiemendamento alla legge di bilancio in approvazione. Aumentando il rischio che, anche ai poveri che potrebbero lavorare, arrivi solo denaro e non lavoro.

Massimo Baldini e Giovanni Gallo -- lavoce.info

Written on 16 December 2018.

    In den Jahrzehnten nach dem II. Weltkrieg war Italien bitter arm. Wie schon unter dem Faschismus zuvor mussten sich die Kreativität, Frömmigkeit und Kunstliebe des Volkes mit einfachsten Materialien begnügen und Raffinement durch Fleiss zu ersetzen versuchen. Berühmt sind die Laubsägearbeiten aus dieser Zeit und die Weihnachtskrippen.

    Rom besitzt nicht wie Neapel eine Strasse (S. Gregorio Armeno), die ganzjährig Krippen herstellt und verkauft. Roms Krippenkunst ist bescheiden, häuslicher Art.

    Die hier vorgestellte Krippe zeigt süditalienische Weihnachtsfolklore auf kleinstem Raum, nämlich unter einem Glassturz: Arte Povera eben. Ausgangspunkt: ein Glassturz, wie man ihn für Madonnen und Heilige verwendet, die Mindestform der Scarabattola, des Gehäuses einer Presepe, einer Krippe.  Es ist schon erstaunlich, wie vielfältig das Leben unter einem Glassturz sein kann!

    Die römische Weihnacht verrät ihren Ursprung im Leben der Abruzzen-Hirten, die in den Vor-Weihnachtstagen in die Stadt kommen und in den Strassen auf ihren Dudelsäcken spielen.

Frohe Weihnachten und ein gutes Neues Jahr!

Höhe: 42 cm

Alter: 1950-60

Fundort: Mercatino via Nomentana, Rom

Stil: Arte Povera

Beleuchtung: original

Written on 21 December 2018.

On December 7, 2018 the New York Times published an op-ed by Oliver Nachtwey titled
It Doesn’t Matter Who Replaces Merkel. Germany Is Broken

    The author, a professor of sociology at the University of Basel, sees Germany doomed (and with it Europe) after Ms. Merkel’s departure from the position of head of the Christian Democrat Party and the approaching end of her chancellorship. He cites a number of reasons for his claim – all well known. Growing job insecurity, expanding minimum wage sector, the middle class increasingly divided between upper deciles getting richer and a majority feeling menaced by social decline. These changes resulting in the loss of the traditional two-party politics, the backbone of Germany’s stability and resilience.

    However, for a country considered doomed, Germany is doing exceedingly well. “Happy Germany”(Glückliches Deutschland) was the headline of a recent newspaper article on a 2018 Nielsen report which measured peoples’ satisfaction with their living and job conditions, across countries. Germans are expecting a bright future, the report says; with an index of 106 their expectations range well above the European average of 87. The economy is booming, the labor market is governed by almost full employment and is close to emptying the migrant labor reserves of Eastern Europe and the Balkans. In many villages of Bulgaria and Romania only old people and children are left because adults have migrated to Germany and beyond.

    It is true that Germany has developed a large and growing low wage sector characterized by volatility of employment, exploitation and poverty, especially among single mothers or fathers. It is also true that immigrants, perhaps more accustomed to hardscrabble life, are increasingly competing with Germans for simple jobs in construction, transport, crafts and services.

    However, low wage part time employment is also popular among married women working to make some pocket money or finance the family’s premium automobile which they proudly use for hauling groceries and schooling children. Many retail stores are run by part time women who allow the employer to avoid hiring costly regular full time staff.

    Despite or because of the sprawling low wage sector, there is still plenty of hidden unemployment in Germany not shown by official statistics. The continuing trend toward fixed term employment and other precarious forms of employment is keeping workers and employees insecure and cautious. As a result, trade unions appear weak and the level of wages and salaries in Germany has stagnated in recent years.

    Since in France, Britain and Italy, wages have risen in line with productivity increases, Germany has therefore gained a relative advantage at the expense of its labor force. Still, Germans are expressing themselves satisfied with their job situation and showing optimism as regards the future.

    When West Germany got a new (undeserved?) lease on life after World War II, there existed no “middle class”, because nearly everybody was poor. During the following few decades, a new middle class took shape based on individual ability to survive hardship, not on social status, property or education. This new class appeared somewhat rough and ruthless, forming the image of the new Germany and its economic vigor.

    Since then normalization took its toll. A new upper crust formed fancying style and education, which pushed its offspring through university into posh jobs. As in prewar Germany, the scions of status, class and education again grabbed the opportunities at the expense of those not in a favorable starting position. The once fairly homogeneous middle class began to fall apart with the lower-income bracket sliding toward poverty, with their children not being able to afford enough education to qualify for and get access to top jobs. The class-less Germany of 1945 has thus moved all the way back to a highly stratified society, although not as fully class dominated as some other countries, e.g. France or Britain.

    This social transformation is reflected in German politics. After many decades of unchallenged rule by a mix of conservatives, socialists and liberals, Germans became weary of these old parties and their musical chairs game. First the liberals were ditched, then the socialists. The only survivors are now the conservatives of Ms Merkel and her potential successor (the lady with the complicated name).

    Still, it is wrong to assume that Germany will be going down the trash chute. Surprisingly, the Greens have survived Ms Merkel’s persistent efforts to groom her Conservatives to look greener than the Greens. The Greens managed to survive Merkel's cunning not because they succeeded to appear still greener than thou but because they became the party of the lower middle class. The Greens represent a credible answer to the desires and dislikes of this powerful group. They present themselves as located left of center without being aggressively socialist. They abhor liberalism without lacking economic reasoning. Their green agenda does not frighten the lower middle class and offers an antidote to the environmental and climate pessimism popular among half- and fully educated groups.

    According to a new poll conducted by Hamburg University, over two thirds of Germans are considering climate change an important issue which concerns them personally and directly and requires them to take action. Against this backdrop it is hardly surprising that the Greens succeeded in occupying the rank once enjoyed by the socialists and offering Germany again a stable, reliable middle class force to supplement the conservatives.

     Ms Merkel not only tried to make her CDU conservatives become greener than the Greens but also to look redder than the Socialists. Here she succeeded: the Social Democrats in Germany have become as hopelessly obsolete as they appear in France and Italy, leaving their end of the political spectrum to be absorbed by a radical left. Unintentionally however, Ms Merkel’s efforts to paint her conservatives in green and red camouflage dots opened up a gap at the right hand side of the spectrum. This gap was promptly filled by a new right wing party, Action for Germany (AfD), whose success is eating away at the conservative base of the electorate, especially in the eternally frustrated eastern part of Germany. .

    When in Italy the reformist center politician Matteo Renzi failed, he was succeeded by a firebrand rightwinger, Matteo Salvini, who is currently the de facto head of government. A recent poll in France indicated that the centrist Emmanuel Macron, if he fails, would be succeeded by the crypto-fascist Marine Le Pen. Germany seems to follow this trend by moving toward a center-right coalition government with the new AfD party, unless the Greens succeed in mustering enough strength to coalesce with the conservatives and keep the new right in opposition.

    For the time being, Germany appears pretty stable. Any CDU-Greens government without Ms Merkel is not likely to distinguish itself very much from its predecessors. For the AfD to enter government, two changes woukl have to take place. First, the party would have to rid itself of its powerful neo-Nazi wing and become more palatable to the critical German electorate. If the Nazis prevail, the party is likely to wither and eventually lose its grip on power. Another change, however, could boost the AfD: a global economic crisis. Any financial meltdown like in 2009 would turn the limelight on the economy and cast a shadow on the Green's enfatuation with climate. The AfD would rediscover its anti-Euro origins and travel on the souverainist ticket so successfully used by populist politicians in numerous countries, including the U.S. and Britain.

Heinrich von Loesch

Written on 13 December 2018.

   What the internet looks like to users in the U.S. can be quite different from the online experience of people in other countries. Some of those variations are due to government censorship of online services, which is a significant threat to internet freedom worldwide. But private companies – many based in the U.S. – are also building obstacles to users from around the world who want to freely explore the internet.

   Website operators and internet traffic managers often choose to deny access to users based on their location. Users from certain countries can’t visit certain websites – not because their governments say so, or because their employers want them to focus on work, but because a corporation halfway around the world has made a decision to deny them access.

   This geoblocking, as it’s called, is not always nefarious. U.S. companies may block traffic from certain countries to comply with federal economic sanctions. Shopping websites might choose not to have visitors from countries they don’t ship goods to. Media sites might not be able to comply with other nations’ privacy laws. But other times it’s out of convenience, or laziness: It may be easier to stop hacking attempts from a country by blocking every user from that country, rather than increasing security of vulnerable systems.

   Whatever its justifications, this blocking is increasing on all kinds of websites and is affecting users from almost every country in the world. Geoblocking cuts people off from global markets and international communications just as effectively as government censorship. And it creates a more splintered internet, where each country has its own bubble of content and services, rather than sharing a global commons of information and interconnection.

Measuring geoblocking globally

 When a website blocks access, it sometimes delivers a notice saying so. 

   As a team of internet freedom researchers, my colleagues and I investigated the mechanics of geoblocking, including where geoblocking is happening, what content was being blocked and how websites were practicing geoblocking.

   We used a service called Luminati, which provides researchers remote, automated access to residential internet connections around the world. Our automated system used those connections to see what more than 14,000 sites look like from 177 countries, and compared the results in each country.

   Websites that didn’t block traffic typically served us a large file providing rich internet content, including text, images and video. Websites that were blocked usually delivered just a short notice saying that access was denied because of the visitor’s location. When the same website delivered a large file to an address in one country and a very short one to another, we knew we had a good chance of finding that the site was conducted geoblocking.

   We found that the internet does indeed look very different depending on where you’re connecting from. Users in countries under U.S. sanctions – Iran, Syria, Sudan and Cuba – had access to significantly fewer websites than in other countries. People in China and Russia faced similar restrictions, though not as many. Some countries are less affected, but of the 177 countries we studied, every one – except the Seychelles – was subjected to at least some geoblocking, including the U.S.

   Shopping websites were the most likely to geoblock, perhaps because of economic sanctions or more straightforward business reasons. But some websites hosting news and educational resources chose to block users from specific countries, limiting those people’s access to outside information and perspectives.

The role of internet middlemen

   We also found that many websites are taking advantage of geoblocking services provided by their hosting companies and online middleman firms called content delivery networks. These companies operate systems that preload web content at key locations around the world to speed service to nearby internet users, so an Australian looking for an article in the Washington Post doesn’t have to wait for the request to travel halfway around the world and back. With a content delivery network, there’s already an up-to-date electronic copy of the Washington Post stored in, say, Sydney.

When a website blocks access, it sometimes delivers a notice saying so

   Many content delivery network services include a dashboard where a site administrator can easily select which countries to deliver the website’s information to – and which ones to block. Content delivery networks in general are a lot cheaper than they used to be, which means more and more website operators are getting their hands on simple geoblocking tools.

   In fact, based on data that were provided to us by Cloudflare, one of the world’s largest content delivery networks, this trend is only increasing. As of August 2018, more than 37 percent of Cloudflare’s large-business customers block their website in at least one country.

   Sometimes an unavailable website is merely an inconvenience – I can’t order my Irish friends a pizza from the U.S., for example. Other times geoblocking can really cause problems. We encountered an Iranian student who couldn’t apply to graduate school abroad because the admissions website wouldn’t accept payment of the application fee from Iran. Another person may be unable to read the news from a major international city, or plan a trip abroad because travel websites are all unavailable from their home.

Geoblocking is ineffective

   Restricting access based on geography is unlikely to affect all internet users equally. As when evading censorship, getting around a geoblock isn’t necessarily difficult. But it might be expensive, expose users to additional tracking of their online activity, or require a level of technical literacy that not everyone has. Even if a user can ultimately access the content they were originally denied, they may bear a significant burden to gain access to the wider internet.

   It’s also not easy – or necessarily accurate – to identify an internet user’s physical location. Using a computer’s numeric IP address to estimate where in the world it’s being used is notoriously unreliable. At least some users are likely being unfairly denied access to online services because their network address is determined to be somewhere they are not. However, rather than expanding the accessibility and accuracy of geoblocking, our group is encouraging researchers to address the needs of websites while maintaining as open an access policy as possible.

   The internet has indelibly changed the world and the way people connect and do business. Researchers are working hard to keep this valuable resource available to everyone. Companies shouldn’t thwart those efforts by discriminating against users only because of where they are when they connect.

Allison McDonald -- The Conversation

UPDATE

see here:

Internet Censorship 2022: A Global Map of Internet Restrictions