Next target of Russia's imperialism: Finland

The Kremlin is running a coordinated information operation against Finland that is aimed at discrediting the government and creating the perception of internal instability, according to analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Experts said that similar tactics have preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on September 18 that the Finnish government’s “neutral veneer peeled off” and that revanchism is “literally on the rise” in Finland,” ISW said.

Meanwhile, Russian presidential special envoy Sergey Ivanov said that Russian-Finnish relations are effectively broken and will not improve due to Finland’s recent accession to the NATO defense alliance.

Analysts expressed particular concern over Ivanov’s involvement in the campaign. A former defense minister, deputy prime minister, and head of Putin’s administration, Ivanov has long been close to the Kremlin dictator, making his participation in information attacks a signal of Moscow’s serious intentions, experts say.

“ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine,” the report said

ISW

 

 

 

Comment l’Arabie saoudite finance, discrètement, l’occupation de la Palestine

L’Arabie saoudite, par l’intermédiaire de son Fonds d’investissement public (FIP), a approfondi ses relations avec Tel-Aviv en investissant dans des entreprises israéliennes qui soutiennent l’occupation en Palestine. Ces transactions financières s’inscrivent dans un plan plus large visant à normaliser les relations avec Israël contrariées par le génocide à Gaza.

ORIENTXXi

 

 

 

Hurting Russia's war machine

Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev told Euronews that Kyiv’s strategy to hit the Russian oil industry is “the most efficient thing Ukraine can do” to hurt Russia’s war machine.

The Russian government relies heavily on oil and gas revenue. Oil exports constitute about one-third of Russia's federal budget, making them a critical source of funding for the war in Ukraine.

Inozemtsev explained to Euronews that targeting oil refineries has a significantly bigger impact than targeting, for example, drone manufacturing sites.

According to Inozemtsev, it does not take much time to set up or repair a drone factory, which is not much more than “a large assembly shop where components are delivered, assembled, checked and tested.”

“Let’s say a drone attacks a factory like this – it would take three days to rebuild everything. But if you hit an oil refinery  - the consequences are much more serious, it would burn for weeks," he told Euronews.

In turn, oil refinery equipment is not only costly, Inozemtsev said, but also almost irreplaceable, given that Moscow is under significant Western sanctions.

“In fact, it is European and American equipment. It is difficult to replace it with Chinese equipment," he explained.

Attacks on the big oil refineries cause a significant drop in production, including petrol.

"And the situation with petrol is noticeable. Everyone is talking about problems with petrol. And this is true, it exists, and Ukrainians have created it.”

Gas stations have run dry in more regions of the country, with motorists waiting in long lines and officials resorting to rationing or cutting off sales altogether. “Ukrainians have hit the nail on the head here," Inozemtsev emphasised.

Supply disruptions are painful because car ownership is high, and practically everyone has a car."

"So when people see that there is nothing at the petrol station, this is one of the three most important irritating factors, in my opinion: lack of petrol, airport closures, and internet disruptions. These are three things that all Russians feel.”

Can Moscow fix it?

Russia remains the world’s second-largest oil exporter, In order to ease the shortage, Russia has paused gasoline exports. A full ban has been declared until 30 September, and a partial ban affecting traders and intermediaries until 31 October.

Oil and gas revenues have accounted for between a third and a half of Russia's total federal budget proceeds over the past decade, making the sector the most critical source of financing for the government.

Inozemtsev pointed out to Euronews that the Russian economy is being hit, but the Russian army and Russia’s war remain intact at this stage.

'Putin wants to press on'

GDP growth is expected to slow to around 1% from 4.3% last year, and inflation remains above 8% in a country where much of the workforce and 40% of revenues now go to defence and security.

“In principle, this is how we enter a state where, most likely, we will have zero growth in the coming years, but at the same time, there will always be enough for war,” Inozemtsev told Euronews"

Ukrainian strikes are now already happening all over the country. It makes people understand that things are not going ok and that the government cannot do anything about it but “Putin is not concerned about this.”

"(Putin) is absolutely certain that in a year or two, the West and Ukraine will collapse. He wants to press on," Inozemtsev concluded. 

EURO News

 

 

Denmark to buy ‘long-range’ weapons amid Russia ‘paradigm shift’

Denmark will acquire long-range, high-precision weapons for the first time in an effort to deter Russia, its prime minister has said.

In a firm rebuke of Moscow, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told journalists Wednesday that Russia would constitute a threat to Denmark for “years to come” even if there is no imminent danger of an attack. “With these weapons, the defence forces will be able to hit targets at long range and, for example, neutralise enemy missile threats,” she said, adding that the decision represented a “paradigm shift in Danish defence policy”. (AlJazeera)

The world of international arms deals received a jolt on Wednesday, as Denmark announced it would purchase an estimated $9 billion in cutting-edge military systems, marking the largest weapons purchase ever for the Scandinavian nation. More surprising than the massive buy, however, was who Denmark had chosen to supply the influx of arms: fellow European nations, and conspicuously not the United States. (THE WEEK)

 

Democrats to copycat Republicans?

Oliver Willis

 

 

The Gaza riviera project

The words of the nationalist finance minister, settler and messianic Bezalel Smotrich, were striking. He publicly confirmed for the first time that the project for the reconstruction of the Strip is the subject of discussions with the US, explaining: "I have started negotiations with the Americans, I say this without joking, because we have paid a lot of money for this war. We have to divide up the percentages of the land."

Speaking at a summit on urban regeneration, he described post-war Gaza as an Eldorado, a gold mine for investment. The Washington Post devoted an extensive report to the Strip's glittering architectural future at the end of last month. It reported on a reconstruction plan circulating among US administration officials, based on Donald Trump's intention to gain control of the enclave and transform it “into a trust zone administered by the United States for at least ten years.”

As things stand today, it takes a lot of open-mindedness to believe this: the gray dust that hovers over the Strip, the collapsed buildings, and the dirty rubble suggest feelings of catastrophe. Imagine a sparkling future. At the moment, IDF bulldozers are clearing the land between Rafah and Khan Younis for the Palestinians.

Helping to fuel the dreams are videos posted by Hamas opponents: “What were you thinking, Sinwar?” asks one of them, posting a video of the Strip before October 7, 2023, showing wide avenues lined with palm trees, metropolitan traffic, luxury shops, elegant malls, trendy restaurants, children in arcades: 712 days later, nothing remains. The only certainty is the battle plan of General Yaniv Ashur, head of the IDF's Southern Command, revealed by Walla.

There are three phases: ‘the moment of fire’, with the massive destruction of terrorist infrastructure, especially at night. In the second phase, the ground operation is coordinated with intelligence, with great attention paid to reducing the risks for soldiers and hostages. According to the information available, the hostages are surrounded by explosive traps and men with bombs. Finally, the third part: classified with the highest level of secrecy.

ANSA check

 

 Cheap drones to scare NATO

Putin can simply deploy more inexpensive drones than NATO’s defense industries can produce multimillion-dollar interceptors to shoot them down. Read more here (gift link).

Anton Troianovski of The New York Times also describes the drone attack as a message to the West: That Russia will not back down. Putin, he argues, feels emboldened after being embraced by Trump in Alaska and by Xi and his autocratic network at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The Russian president is telling Ukraine that he won’t stop, while warning Europe and the United States against continuing—or deepening—their support for Kyiv.

Anne Applebaum.

 

 

Allies Shocked by Trump’s Indifference to Russian Drones in Poland

But our European allies were aghast last week at Trump’s response to the swarm of around 20 drones that Russia sent across Polish borders, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets to shoot them down. While Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told his parliament the episode was “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II,” all that Trump could muster was a post on his Truth Social platform: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”

A day later, though, he made clear he was going nowhere. “It could have been a mistake,” he said of the drone penetration.

(According to the German publication WELT, five of the Russian drones were on a direct flight path toward a NATO base before being intercepted by Dutch Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, suggesting they were probably dispatched to test NATO reflexes.)

I love Trump’s turn of phrase: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones?” Our president sounds like a teenage blogger commenting on some movie star who did something embarrassing in public — not the leader of the free world. If Putin had any sense of humor he would post on Truth Social: “Donald, what’s with that Department of War thing?”

Every day that goes by, Trump seems to add another condition or another timeline for when he will impose meaningful economic sanctions on Russia, as Putin steps up his attacks on Ukraine. Trump’s latest formulation posted over the weekend is that all nations in Europe, most of whom have already sharply cut back their imports of Russian oil, would need to stop buying oil from Moscow entirely. In addition, all NATO nations need to impose tariffs of 50% to 100% on China. A serious president would not be posting such demands on social media. He and his staff would be working the phones.

I have always avoided the more conspiratorial explanations for Trump’s behavior. I do not believe that the U.S. president is somehow a Putin asset (though he sure knows how to play one on TV). What I believe is that Trump is simply different from any U.S. president since World War II — and not in a good way.

Thomas Friedman -- NY Times

 

The man behind Trump

More than seven months into Trump’s second term, Stephen Miller has become America’s — if not the world’s — most powerful unelected bureaucrat. With Trump’s blessing, Miller has been allowed to run and remake the country in a manner virtually unheard of for a U.S. government official of his rank. Think of any egregious policy from the Trump administration: Chances are, it was driven by Stephen Miller.

All of it bears Trump’s signature, but the president is not the one spending his nights writing executive orders and bending legal theory to his will; nearly all of this bears the authorship (or, at least, co-authorship) of Miller. Everything you loathe or love about Donald Trump’s America, you hate or cherish about Stephen Miller’s republic of fear.

Under Miller’s guiding hand, the government can deport (or kidnap and rendition) you or your spouse, without due process, to a foreign gulag, if the president feels like it. The White House can repeatedly threaten to take away the most basic of constitutional protections, such as habeas corpus. The president can launch Justice Department criminal investigations against his enemies who, by all known accounts, did nothing wrong except annoy the commander-in-chief, or refuse to help him steal an election. The president and his lieutenants can arrest you at a routine courthouse check-in, at your church, outside your kid’s school, even if you have no criminal record. They’ve instituted a heavily draconian system of immigration arrest “quotas,” ensuring a regime not mainly of mass deportation, but of mass disappearances and indefinite detention in jails and newly erected camps.

Rolling Stone

 

 Chasing longevity

• Retro Biosciences is a longevity startup backed by OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman.
• Retro's said its first human clinical trial is set to launch by the end of 2025.
• It's for a pill designed to clear out "gunk" in the brain and reverse Alzheimer's.

At the helm of what is essentially Altman's playground for experimenting with pushing the limits of the human lifespan, Betts-LaCroix is hoping to engineer the same shift that air conditioning brought to hot summer days for your brain and body. Ideally, one day, decouple aging from decline and disease.  Hoping is one thing, delivering is another.

Retro is set to start its first clinical trial since its launch in 2021, with an initial $180 million investment from Altman. Betts-LaCroix told Business Insider that by the end of 2025, Retro will have dosed its first trial patient with an experimental pill called RTR242.

It's designed to help reverse Alzheimer's by reviving autophagy. This cellular recycling process in our body — the same one that's triggered by fasting — often goes haywire in old age, and is widely thought to have broad antiaging effects.

"There are old, misfolded, mutated, broken, undigestible proteins inside cells that build up over time," Betts-LaCroix said. "The normal cellular recycling system gets messed up."

In Australia, where it's faster and easier to get Phase 1 safety trials off the ground, Retro has picked a clinical trial site, selected lab vendors, and expects its first participant to be enrolled toward the end of the year.

Meaningful results are needed to attract more investment for large-scale clinical trials. The company has been vocal about its goal to raise $1 billion in its Series A.

If it's successful, that cash would put Retro in the realm of longevity startups like the Jeff Bezos-backed Altos Labs, which is by far the most well-funded new name in Silicon Valley longevity biotech. Altos has raised more than $3 billion from big-name tech investors, including Yuri Milner, Palantir cofounder Joe Lonsdale (via his investment firm 8VC), and the Arch Venture founder Robert Nelson.

Betts-LaCroix assures me that Retro is in "hardcore preclinical mode."

RTR242 is one of at least three big ideas the company is currently betting on to reverse aging. All of Retro's big bets share the goal of taking some aspect of our biology "back to essentially a younger age," Betts-LaCroix said. 

Retro's been vocal about its ultimate goal: to add 10 extra, healthy years to human lifespan.

MSN

 

'100% tariff': Trump asks EU to impose higher duties on Russian oil buyers India, China 

Such a move would go against the EU’s core principles, particularly after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated her opposition to tariffs, insisting that “tariffs are taxes” on domestic consumers. Slapping tariffs on India, with whom Brussels is nearing a major trade deal, and on China, to which its open economy is heavily exposed, would amount to colossal acts of self-harm. 

“We don’t do tariffs. We are a trading bloc. We are exporters. Exports are the engine of the EU economy. This is our DNA,” said Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

POLITICO.  

 

Bold talk, no action.... 

Ukrainians remain frustrated with what they see as Western leaders’ reliance on statements of “outrage” instead of decisive action. Many point to the painfully slow delivery of tanks, fighter jets, and sanctions packages that might have blunted Moscow’s war machine earlier.

Michael Bociurkiw

 

 

 

Russia’s New Fear Factor

On July 7, Roman Starovoit, the minister of transport, killed himself with a firearm a few hours after being sacked by Russian President Vladimir Putin. A few days earlier, Andrei Badalov, the vice president of the oil transportation company Transneft, fell from the window of an apartment building. Badalov was only the latest of a series of top officials in the oil and gas sector who have been purged or died mysteriously since Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine began in 2022. According to Novaya Gazeta, the independent Russian newspaper, there have been 56 deaths of successful businesspeople and officials under strange circumstances since February 2022. Many of them have fallen out of windows. More and more, people who have loyally served Putin’s system are being persecuted, mainly on the grounds of corruption.

In 2024, the Ministry of Defense was hit with a sweeping corruption crackdown. In May of that year, Sergei Shoigu, the longtime defense minister known for his proximity to Putin, was sacked, and appointed to the primarily ceremonial position of chair of the Security Council. Shoigu’s deputy Timur Ivanov was less fortunate: he was arrested on large-scale corruption charges and, in July, sentenced to 13 years in prison—one of the longest sentences for any current or former high-ranking Russian official since the end of the Cold War. Since then, there have been many more arrests—especially of regional functionaries at various levels. As the Putin regime turns on its own people, it, too, has begun to replace them with a new breed of loyalists, people whose primary qualifications are their apparent fealty to the leader... 

Andrei Kolesnikov--Foreign Affairs

.

 

Trump's foreign policy

Trump’s damage to American power and prestige would be less severe if the president had a foreign policy and a team to execute it. He has neither: Trump ran for president mostly for personal reasons, including to stay out of prison, and his foreign policy, such as it is, is merely an extension of his personal interests. He holds summits, issues social-media pronouncements, and engages in photo ops mostly, it seems, either to burnish his claim to a Nobel Prize or to change the news cycle when issues such as the economy (or the Jeffrey Epstein files) get too much traction.

The Atlantic.

 

 

Be terrified of the Trump of next week!

Trump  ordered the destruction of a boat near Venezuela and the death of the 11 people on board, a small boat that was unarmed and that posed no immediate threat even if it was carrying illegal drugs. That boat was a thousand miles from the US and could never have come anywhere near us.

Trump acts impulsively, without thinking about the consequences, without looking at the next steps needed. And when he orders the most powerful military in the history of the world to carry out his impulses, they salute and carry them out.

Leaders of Europe and other countries have gamed out how to deal with Trump — the Trump of last month, or last week, when he could be counted on to at least hesitate before doing something crazy. They knew how to flatter him, how to play to his vanity, how to make him think their reasonable proposals were really all his idea. I don’t think they know how to deal with the Trump of this week, and they absolutely have to be terrified of the Trump of next week and the one after. And I am sure their intelligence services are giving them more accurate information about Trump’s accelerating physical and mental decline than we are being told.

Dan K -- Daily Kos

 

 MEDIA ite

 

 

Russia and China Sign Deal to Advance Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline

The proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, with an annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters, has been on the Kremlin’s wish list for nearly two decades. The project has taken on new urgency as Moscow seeks a way to offset the collapse of Gazprom’s once-lucrative sales to Europe.

The 2,600-kilometer Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is expected to cost the company about 2 trillion rubles ($25 billion, according to spot foreign exchange market data published by Reuters), and China has not committed to provide funding.

Earlier reporting suggested that Beijing sought to commit to only part of the pipeline’s capacity and at heavily discounted Russian domestic rates, which stand at around $120 to $130 per thousand cubic meters, according to energy expert Alexei Gromov.

Industry analyst Mikhail Krutikhin estimated the project’s price tag at around 2 trillion rubles ($24.8 billion) and warned that Russia risked subsidizing Chinese consumers at its own expense.

“Given the enormous costs of pipeline construction and field development, Russia will in fact continue subsidizing Chinese gas consumption to its own detriment,” he said.

The Moscow Times

 

  

 

Is a ceasefire (in Ukraine) and plan for a peacekeeping force viable?

“It’s all theatre. Every single European leader, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has had to find a way of keeping Trump on side,” said Keir Giles, a Eurasia expert at Chatham House. “They’ve succeeded in doing so, but it is at the cost of suspension of reality.”

The idea of a ceasefire is not only “entirely unachievable because Vladimir Putin is plainly not interested in ending the fighting”, Giles told Al Jazeera, but it is also undesirable.

“Everybody knows still that a ceasefire was among one of the worst-case possible outcomes for Ukraine before Trump arrived in office,” he said.

Ukraine and its European allies have repeatedly scoffed at a truce as a chance for Putin to reorganise his forces before attacking with renewed vigour. Trump, however, made a ceasefire his priority last February. “The need to humour Trump, and to play along with the fantasy version of reality that drives the Trump world, means that they still pay lip service to these ludicrous ideas,” said Giles.

Al Jazeera

 

 

Trump mulling postwar Gaza plan relocating 2 million Palestinians for multi-billion dollar investment