Will Putin attack Europe?
Three factors currently determine Putin's European policy:
- How reliable is Trump as Putin's friend and supporter? Would Trump (as NATO) help the EU (Poland) if Russia attacked?
- How long will it take Europeans to build up armed forces capable of resisting Russia?
Given the fragmentation of European armed forces and its arms industry, it is unlikely that the EU will be able to defend itself against a battle proof military power such as Russia. Individual countries such as Poland, Finland, and Denmark could put up heroic but ultimately futile resistance. Austria would try to follow Switzerland into neutrality. Germany and France would have to give up resistance after a few days. Italy and Spain would likely spare their meager military forces by surrendering immediately.
Nevertheless, Putin must fear that the EU could develop surprising vitality in times of war (as Britain and the US did in World War II) and, thanks to its great economic power, could gradually overcome its armaments and military weakness over the course of a few years. Europe would grow stronger, but only during the course of the war. For Putin, this means that Russia would have to immediately and completely conquer all of Europe – up to the Atlantic (Medvedyev) – in order to prevent new armament factories and military units from springing up behind the front lines, as happened in Ukraine, a development which could enable Europe to continue the war for years.
- Is there a risk that, as a result of the midterm elections (11/26), Congress could force Trump to drop Russia and support Ukraine against his will? While this is conceivable, it may be that Trump could be unable, for personal reasons, to take any action against Russia other than verbal.
As long as Ukraine keeps fighting, Putin will likely refrain from attacking Europe. Once he has won the war and Ukraine's military and armaments potential has increased Russia's power, he might feel strong enough to take on continental Europe, with Trump's tacit or open encouragement. Only Britain, Switzerland and the Nordics might succeed to remain islands in a Russian sea.
Burkhart FürstBrüssel schiebt die Entscheidung über fast 300 Milliarden Euro an eingefrorenen russischen Vermögenswerten weiterhin vor sich her, gelähmt durch Belgiens Angst, den Ruf von Euroclear zu schädigen und den Euro zu untergraben. Aber hier ist die brutale Wahrheit: Eine Verzögerung jetzt wird später weitaus kostspieliger sein. Wenn Europa sich weigert, die Ukraine nicht nur bei der Verteidigung zu unterstützen, sondern auch bei Angriffen auf kritische russische Infrastrukturen – wie Ölraffinerien, die den Krieg finanzieren –, wird der Kontinent bald eine viel höhere Rechnung bezahlen müssen. Diese Rechnung wird nicht in Euro in den Bilanzen gemessen werden, sondern in Luftschutzbunkern, zusammenbrechenden Volkswirtschaften und russischen Truppen, die die Grenzen der NATO testen. Die europäischen Staats- und Regierungschefs haben diesen Krieg verschlafen und es versäumt, ihre eigenen Wähler auf die harte Realität vorzubereiten: Putin hat nicht vor, bei der Ukraine Halt zu machen.
Michael Bociurkiw
Putin has discovered how immensely advantageous war is for him.
He can eliminate opposition figures and journalists, keep society under control, and justify his continued hold on power.
It doesn't matter to Putin where he wages war—the important thing is that he wages war. Peace is of no interest to him because it serves no purpose.
Putin likes his current life; he likes to wage war and rule. He is not bored, as some strangely claim. To believe that he can be pacified is a dangerous mistake. He likes being the epicenter of world politics. Everything revolves around him. Everyone is preoccupied with him, and he likes that immensely.
He is an old man who is very afraid of death. And now, at almost 73, he is spending his twilight years the way he likes: the world revolves around him. For him, this is a triumph.