Will Putin attack Europe?

Written on .

 

Three factors currently determine Putin's European policy:

  • How reliable is Trump as Putin's friend and supporter? Would Trump (as NATO) help the EU (Poland) if Russia attacked?
 
American observers expect that Trump would not support the EU. By then, he will probably have forgotten his vague promise to Polish president Nawrocki to help Poland in case of an emergency.
 
  •  How long will it take Europeans to build up armed forces capable of resisting Russia?

Given the fragmentation of European armed forces and its arms industry, it is unlikely that the EU will be able to defend itself against a battle proof military power such as Russia. Individual countries such as Poland, Finland, and Denmark could put up heroic but ultimately futile resistance. Austria would try to follow Switzerland into neutrality. Germany and France would have to give up resistance after a few days. Italy and Spain would likely spare their meager military forces by surrendering immediately.
Nevertheless, Putin must fear that the EU could develop surprising vitality in times of war (as Britain and the US did in World War II) and, thanks to its great economic power, could gradually overcome its armaments and military weakness over the course of a few years. Europe would grow stronger, but only during the course of the war. For Putin, this means that Russia would have to immediately and completely conquer all of Europe – up to the Atlantic (Medvedyev) – in order to prevent new armament factories and military units from springing up behind the front lines, as happened in Ukraine, a development which could enable Europe to continue the war for years.

  •  Is there a risk that, as a result of the midterm elections (11/26), Congress could force Trump to drop Russia and support Ukraine against his will? While this is conceivable, it may be that Trump could be unable, for personal reasons, to take any action against Russia other than verbal.

As long as Ukraine keeps fighting, Putin will likely refrain from attacking Europe. Once he has won the war and Ukraine's military and armaments potential has increased Russia's power, he might feel strong enough to take on continental Europe, with Trump's tacit or open encouragement. Only Britain, Switzerland and the Nordics might succeed to remain islands in a Russian sea.

Burkhart Fürst

 

 

Print Email