Unter siebzehn arabischen Ländern gibt es nur zwei, die sich derzeit als Demokratien bezeichnen können: Libanon und Tunesien. Nur die Angst vor einem erneuten Bürgerkrieg hält Christen, Sunniten und Schiiten im Libanon in einem prekären Gleichgewicht, das sich Demokratie nennt. In Tunesien erlaubte die Abreise von tausenden Dshihadisten nach Syrien eine Entspannung zwischen Säkularen und Islamisten, die zu einer Koalitionsregierung führte und als Beginn einer Demokratie gelten kann.
Alle anderen arabischen Staaten, plus der Türkei und Iran, fallen in eine der drei Kategorien: Militärdiktatur, Klerikaldiktatur, Feudaldiktatur. Der Islamische Staat vereinigt sogar zwei Kategorien, die einer Klerikal- und Militärdiktatur. Ägypten hat das Hemd doppelt gewechselt: von einer Militär- zu einer Klerikaldiktatur und zurück. Die Türkei ist, wie Nobelpreisträger Orhan Pamuk sagte, auf dem Wege von einer Militär- zu einer Klerikaldiktatur: "Die autoritären Soldaten wurden hinaus gedrängt; eine autoritäre und islamistische Regierung nahm ihren Platz ein." (14/02/15)
Das Beispiel der Türkei. wo es den Islamisten unter Erdoǧan gelang, das Militär zu entmachten, inspirierte die Moslembrüder Ägyptens unter Morsi, ähnliches zu versuchen. Doch das Volk hatte nach einem Jahr klerikaler Misswirtschaft genug von den Islamisten und rief das Militär zu Hilfe. Das liess sich zwar zweimal bitten, schlug dann aber massiv zu.
Sieben arabische Monarchien sind immer noch ein mächtiger Block im Nahen Osten. Ihre Ursprünge waren durchaus legitim: als sie entstanden, war die Monarchie die einzige in diesem Weltteil bekannte Regierungsform, also alternativlos. Später wurden die Monarchien in Frage gestellt durch die Modernisierung des Miltärs, die Ausbildung führender Offiziere in Sandhurst und West Point und die Darbietung westlicher Lebensformen durch das Fernsehen für die analphabetischen Massen. Die Monarchien mussten sich in moderne Feudaldiktaturen verwandeln, um die Macht zu behalten.
Der Tourismusminister einer grossen arabischen Monarchie sagte vor einiger Zeit zu einer Freundin aus alten Tagen: "Ich verdiene gut, aber ich brauche mehr Geld als Du denkst. Mein Leben ist teuer. Ich muss ein Flugzeug stets startbereit auf dem Flugplatz stehen haben, mitsamt dem Piloten, denn wenn es hier kracht, dann muss ich mit Familie binnen ein, zwei Stunden aus dem Lande sein".
Erstaunlich viele Potentaten schafften es trotzdem nicht, rechtzeitig zu fliehen. Mubarak, Ghaddafi, Saddam Hussein hatten Pech. Nur Ben Ali von Tunesien emtkam dem Volkszorn. König Abdullah II. von Jordanien ist übrigens selbst Pilot.
Im westlichen Ausland echauffiert man sich über den neuen ägyptischen Präsidenten al.Sisi, weil der wesentliche Bürgerrechte missachtet, Moslembrüder und junge Demokraten mit gleicher Härte verfolgt. Sisi ist natürlich kein uneigennütziger Retter Ägyptens vor der Misswirtschaft seines Amtsvorgängers Morsi. Von den Geldern, mit denen die Golfmonarchien das neue Ägypten zu stabilisieren versuchen, hat er schon mal zehn Milliarden Dollar abgezweigt, um für sein Militär U-Boote und sündteure französische Rafale-Kampfflugzeuge zu kaufen. Unter ihm geht das Militär, das jetzt schon ein rundes Drittel der Wirtschaft Ägyptens kontrolliert, goldenen Zeiten entgegen.
Weil sich am Vorrang des Militärs nichts ändern darf, ist für Sisi jede abweichende Meinung, jede Kritik eine Gefahr. Wahrscheinlich teilt er die Meinung etlicher Beobachter, dass man dem politischen Islam, dem Islamismus, nur mit Geduld begegnen kann. Nach weiteren zwanzig, dreissig Jahren wird sich der Islamismus totgelaufen haben, so die Theorie. Mehr Bildung, mehr Wohlstand, neue Ideen werden die Aggressivität der Frommen abschleifen, so glaubt man. Also muss man zwei, drei weitere Jahrzehnte lang dafür sorgen, dass die Islamisten nicht an die Macht kommen. Nur das Militär -- die Schule der Nation für Sisi, in der alle Religionen und sozialen Schichten vertreten und dem gemeinsamen Patriotismus untergeordnet sind -- kann dafür sorgen, dass das Gespenst des Islamismus auf Jahrzehnte hinaus gebannt bleibt.
Das genaue Gegenteil der Philosophie Sisis vertritt in der Türkei Präsident Erdoǧan, dem kürzlich ein türkischer Psychiater, Dr. Ahmet Koyuncu, eine "durchschnittliche anatolische Religiosität" bescheinigte -- was ihm prompt eine Anklage wegen Majestätsbeleidigung eintrug. Man kann angesichts der herrschenden Animosität zwischen den beiden Präsidenten nur glücklich sein, dass die Türkei und Ägypten nicht aneinander grenzen.
Das drakonische Regime Sisis ist nicht schön, aber er fordert mit Recht, die ausländischen Kritiker sollten sich doch bitte in die Rolle der Ägypter versetzen und aus deren Perspektive urteilen. Tatsache ist, dass offenbar nicht nur die Mehrheit der Ägypter Sisis Politik unterstützt, sondern dass auch viele Intellektuelle seinen politischen Ansatz als den derzeit einzig sinnvollen erachten.
Erhellend ist es, sich auszumalen, wie der Nahe Osten wohl aussehen würde, falls in Ägypten statt des Militärs weiterhin die Moslembrüder an der Macht wären. Dann gäbe es eine eindrucksvolle Front von sunnitisch-islamistischen Regimes beginnend im Osten mit der Türkei, sich fortsetzend mit dem Kalifat in Syrien und dem Irak, weiter geführt in Gaza von der durch Ägypten unterstützten Hamas und den IS-Ablegern im Sinai. Mit den Moslembrüdern an der Macht in Kairo wäre die international anerkannte libysche Regierung in Tobruk nicht zu halten; die islamistische Gegenregierung in Tripolis würde mit Hilfe Ägyptens und der lokalen Milizen schnell das ganze Land übernehmen.
Ägypten würde auch dafür sorgen, dass das prekäre Gleichgewicht zwischen den säkularen Kräften und der islamistischen Ennahda-Partei in Tunesien nicht von den Gewerkschaften in Richtung eines demokratischen Kompromisses, sondern von den Frommen auf der Strasse zugunsten Ennahda entschieden worden wäre.
Ägypten ist der Elefant unter den arabischen Staaten. Deswegen, und nicht aus Liebe zu Sisi, pumpen die Golfmonarchien Milliarden in die marode Wirtschaft des Nillandes, dessen nunmehr fast neunzig Millionen Menschen mit einem Brutto-Inlandsprodukt pro Kopf von rund 1566 Dollar (2014) im Jahr vegetieren (immerhin über dem Niveau von Indien mit 1165 Dollar).
Im Nahen Osten unserer Tage ist die Alternative zu dem DreigespannMilitärdiktatur, Klerikaldiktatur, Feudaldiktatur nicht Demokratie sondern Chaos, Modell Libyen und Jemen. Wäre der Islamische Staat nicht so grauenhaft, wahnhaft und aggressiv, könnte man ihn als willkommene Alternative zu Chaos in Syrien und Nordirak betrachten. So aber steuert er unbeirrt auf seine Fernziele zu, die Eroberung der heiligen Stätten Mekka und Medina und danach die Eroberung der Welt. Nur dauerhafte Schwächung durch die amerikanisch geführte Allianz kann ihn an der Verfolgung seiner Ziele hindern.
Während die Allianz mässig, aber regelmässig bombt, belauern sich die religiösen Zwillinge IS und Saudi Arabien gegenseitig. Wer wird den ersten Schlag wagen? Selbst wenn es dem IS gelänge, die kampfungewohnten saudischen Streitkräfte auszuschalten, ist sein Zugang zu den Ölquellen unwahrscheinlich. Bevor die saudische Monarchie zerfällt, würde der Iran seine schiitischen Glaubensbrüder in Bahrein und Ostarabien "befreien" und dadurch die saudischen Ölquellen sichern, durchaus im Sinne Amerikas. Kein Wunder, dass die Prinzen in Er-Riad das US-iranische rapprochement nervös beobachten.
Während sich die Lage im Nahen Osten laufend verschlechtert und die Flüchtlingsströme in alle Richtungen anschwellen, ist doch der Fortschritt in Wissenschaft und Forschung nicht aufzuhalten.
Just an Galileo Galilei's Geburtstag vor 451 Jahren, dem 15 Februar dieses Jahres, verkündete laut Al-Arabiya ein saudischer Religionsgelehrter, Sheikh Bandar al-Khaibari in einem Video, dass die Sonne um die Erde kreise, nicht umgekehrt, und dass die Erde fest ruhe. Die Erde rotiere nicht, denn "sonst würde ein Flugzeug, das von Sharjah (UAE) Richtung China startet, dieses nie erreichen, da sich China wegdreht." Deswegen war auch nie ein Mensch auf dem Mond, sagte Sheikh Bandar, denn das NASA Video sei "ein Hollywood-Produkt gewesen".
Ihsan al-Tawil
Written on .
Le stime preliminari del Pil del quarto trimestre indicano che nell’ultimo scorcio del 2014 la ripresa si è complessivamente consolidata in Europa. Per l’Italia le notizie non sono altrettanto buone. Perché il Governo rimanda l’attuazione della delega fiscale, che potrebbe aiutare la crescita?
CHI CRESCE NELL’EUROZONA?
Le stime preliminari del Pil del quarto trimestre indicano che nell’ultimo scorcio del 2014 la ripresa si è complessivamente consolidata in Europa, con una crescita congiunturale dello 0,3 rispetto al trimestre precedente (quando era stata dello 0,2 per cento). È una crescita spinta dal basso cambio dell’euro (-7 per cento nel quarto trimestre rispetto a quello precedente) e dai bassi prezzi dell’energia (-11 per cento nel trimestre).
I benefici di cambio e petrolio bassi si vedono prima di tutto in Germania. L’economia tedesca è cresciuta dello 0,7 per cento nel quarto trimestre rispetto al trimestre precedente, il che porta (porterebbe: è solo una stima preliminare anche se affidabile) la crescita del Pil di Berlino nel 2014 a un +1,6 per cento, in netta accelerazione rispetto al +0,5 per cento del 2013. Un valore peggiore delle previsioni di inizio anno, ma migliore dei timori di metà anno. L’accelerazione della crescita tedesca avviene in un contesto di inflazione rapidamente in calo verso lo zero nel trimestre, inflazione che è poi scesa sotto lo zero (al -0,5 per cento) già nel mese di gennaio, per la prima volta dal 2009. Almeno in Germania, i temuti effetti negativi della deflazione (che hanno motivato il lancio del piano di acquisto di titoli da parte della Bce nel mese di gennaio) sono per ora dunque più che controbilanciati dagli sgravi della bolletta energetica nei bilanci delle famiglie e delle aziende.
Ma a beneficiare delle favorevoli condizioni esterne del quarto trimestre non è solo la Germania: anche la Spagna vede aumentare il suo Pil dello 0,7 per cento. Un dato che, se confermato in modo definitivo, porterebbe il Pil spagnolo 2014 a una crescita dell’1,3 per cento. Una netta inversione di tendenza rispetto al -1,2 per cento del 2013 e, più in generale rispetto alla lunga serie di trimestri di crescita negativa successivi alla crisi dell’estate 2011. Sulla crescita spagnola – alimentata da riforme opportune e dai finanziamenti europei a queste connesse – pesano dubbi di sostenibilità, suggeriti dai valori negativi del saldo di bilancia commerciale. E certamente una crescita in deflazione rende più difficile rimborsare il debito pubblico spagnolo cha ha ormai raggiunto il 92 per cento del Pil (in Germania è solo il 79 per cento).
Ma intanto rimane il fatto che a Madrid, a differenza che nelle altre capitali del sud Europa, l’economia ha ripreso a marciare a passo spedito. Nell’Eurozona gli altri grandi paesi non crescono al passo spedito di Germania e Spagna. Ad esempio, la Francia registra un modesto +0,1 per cento nel quarto trimestre, che porterebbe la crescita annua dell’economia francese a un +0,3 per cento, sostanzialmente in linea con i (modesti) risultati degli anni precedenti.
E poi c’è l’Italia che, con il suo Pil inalterato rispetto al trimestre precedente, fallisce il ritorno alla crescita e non riesce a evitare di chiudere il 2014 con un altro segno meno (-0,3 per cento) dopo i pessimi risultati del 2012 (-2,4) e 2013 (-1,9). L’Italia è l’unico tra tutti i grandi paesi del mondo con un Pil che diminuisce rispetto al livello dell’anno precedente.
UN BICCHIERE MEZZO PIENO
Buone notizie vengono invece dai due grandi paesi UE fuori dall’Eurozona, cioè Regno Unito e Polonia. Prosegue la corsa del Regno Unito (paese esportatore di petrolio) che rallenta marginalmente al +0,5 per cento, ma chiude il 2014 con uno +2,5 per cento rispetto al 2013, con una crescita simile a quella degli Stati Uniti. Un dato che appare stellare per gli standard di un’Europa ancora attanagliata dalla bassa crescita.
Nel complesso, l’irrobustimento della crescita economica in Germania è un bicchiere solo mezzo pieno per gli altri partner europei che crescono poco. Da un lato, più di metà delle importazioni tedesche proviene dall’Eurozona. Quindi una rapida crescita in Germania aiuta anche la Francia e l’Italia. Ma una rapida crescita in Germania (e anche nella Spagna la cui classe politica sta pagando i costi politici dei sacrifici degli anni precedenti) accoppiata con una crescita meno rapida in Francia e Italia complica il compito della Bce e della Commissione europea nell’attuazione di politiche di sostegno all’economia, di cui comunque – viste le nubi che arrivano dalla Grecia e dall’Ucraina – continua a esserci un gran bisogno.
La crescita zero dell’Italia segnala una volta di più l’urgenza che il Governo faccia di più e in fretta per l’economia. Da questo punto di vista, appare singolarmente inappropriata la scelta di rinviare ai mesi a venire l’approvazione della delega fiscale dalla quale (e dai provvedimenti connessi) arriverebbe un importante aiuto a un’economia che invece continua ad arrancare.
On ne viendra jamais à bout du chômage car le chômage est avant tout un signe de santé et de progrès. Il est donc inutile de le combattre: il faut au contraire l'intégrer pleinement dans notre économie et le considérer non pas comme un désastre mais comme signe extérieur de progrès. Je m'explique:
On oublie constamment que la cause principale du chômage provient des formidables progrès technologiques dont nous bénéficions depuis plus d'un siècle. Partout, des procédés – d'abord mécaniques, puis électriques, et maintenant électroniques – nous libèrent en exécutant à notre place des tâches de plus en plus complexes, et l'ordinateur et ses dérivés en sont bien sûr l'exemple le plus concret.
Un nombre incalculable de corvées et de professions a disparu en raisons de nos avancées technologiques, et c'est une bonne chose pour l'Humanité tout entière. Mais il faut cesser d'être illogique : on ne peut pas à la fois se libérer du joug du travail et regretter d'avoir perdu ce travail. La ménagère qui appuie sur le bouton de sa machine à laver, ne regrette certainement pas l'époque pénible du lavoir. L'agriculteur qui cultive ses terres, calfeutré dans son tracteur informatisé, ne regrette pas davantage le temps du soc tiré par un boeuf. Personne ne pleure les diligences ni les lampes à pétrole ! Alors pourquoi le progrès qui génère du temps libre et du bien-être au niveau individuel, devient-il un élément hautement perturbateur sur le plan social ?
La réponse est extrêmement simple : technologiquement, nous sommes au 21e siècle alors que sur le plan politique et social nous pataugeons encore en plein 19e siècle !
Nos lois, nos règles, notre organisation, notre conception du travail, fonctionnent toujours selon des schémas vieux de plus de cent ans et totalement inadaptés à notre environnement technique. Et c'est de cette discordance entre avancées scientifiques et vétusté sociale que proviennent tous nos maux.
L'industrie naissante du 19e siècle avait besoin de bras pour faire tourner les usines et autres entités économiques (mines, routes, transports, administration, etc.). Toute l'organisation sociale et industrielle s'était donc orientée vers ce principe simple : il faut attirer un maximum de main d'œuvre pour produire ! C'était normal, on n'avait pas le choix…
Aujourd'hui, l'industrie n'a plus besoin de toute cette main d'œuvre et la rejette. Les robots envahissent tous les domaines et personne ne peut rien y changer.
Enfant, lorsque je prenais le métro, j'achetais mon ticket auprès d'un guichetier, puis un autre le poinçonnait. Chaque station avait un responsable de quai, et dans chaque rame siégeait un préposé à l'ouverture et à la fermeture des portes. Aujourd'hui je peux circuler sans rencontrer âme qui vive puisque tout est automatique et que certaines lignes n'ont même plus de conducteur du tout !
Et c'est la même chose dans presque tous les domaines. Tout ce qui est automatisable ou informatisable l'a été ou le sera, et la main d'œuvre est devenue une denrée périmée.
C'est une bonne et belle chose que des emplois stupides, dégradants ou pénibles aient été confiés à des machines. Mais qu'en est-il des hommes et des femmes qui vivaient de ces emplois ?
Et qu'on ne vienne surtout pas nous dire, comme dans les années 70, qu'il ne s'agit que de déplacements de main d'œuvre. L'expérience prouve qu'il y a transfert, certes, mais dans des proportions infimes et que nombre de transférés sont laissés quotidiennement sur la touche.
Vouloir éradiquer le chômage en créant des emplois est donc une utopie car le but de nos avancées technologiques est précisément de supprimer des emplois et de faire travailler l'électronique à notre place… Nous sommes donc en pleine contradiction avec nous-mêmes…
Il n'y a donc que deux solutions. La première serait d'arrêter le progrès et de détruire les machines. Ca serait radical et efficace. Les guerres d'ailleurs s'en chargent régulièrement et les pays en cours de reconstruction ne connaissent que rarement le chômage. Mais je crois que personne ne souhaite de retour en arrière, guerre ou pas guerre…
La seconde solution serait de se débarrasser enfin de notre mode de pensée du 19e siècle. Tant que l'on s'accrochera à cette idée périmée que le travail est obligatoire et indispensable pour vivre, on ne s'en sortira pas !
Il faut donner un sens et une valeur différente au travail. Il faut penser la société différemment. Il faut réorganiser la répartition des richesses sur d'autres critères. Peut-être faut-il créer des outils d'échange autre que l'argent, de nouvelles valeurs, de nouvelles règles ?
La mutation se fera, c'est certain, peut-être en douceur, peut-être dans le choc d'une révolution, mais elle se fera !
Facile à dire, me diront les accros du travail, mais difficile à réaliser…
Pas si sûr ! Car ce type de société a déjà existé de par le passé.
Depuis l'Antiquité, toutes les sociétés qui ont pratiqué l'esclavage ont fonctionné sur le principe du refus de travailler. Qui a vu que les Grecs ou les Romains, vautrés au milieu de leurs esclaves, se plaignaient du chômage ? Bien au contraire, plus ces gens étaient entourés, mieux ils se portaient. Le général vainqueur qui ramenait des foules de chair fraîche au lendemain de ses campagnes ne détruisait certes pas l'équilibre économique de son pays et n'était pas accueilli comme un destructeur d'emplois.
Alors pourquoi sommes-nous à ce point incapables de reproduire ce que nos lointains ancêtres ont su mettre sur pied. Quelles différences entre eux et nous ? Leurs esclaves étaient de chair et de sang, alors que les nôtres sont de métal et d'électronique...
Let us not evade the subject, let us not whitewash it, let us not postpone it indefinitely: Europe faces a problem which cannot be solved like so many others with investments, adaptation or modernization. The problem is called illegal immigration.
They are called refugees, Or asylum seekers. Or poverty migrants. Or victims of climate change. We are mourning thousands of them drowned in the Mediterranean. We regret them being the prey of criminal human trafickers.. We are sorry for the transit countries overwhelmed by illegal immigration. We criticize primitive emergency accommodations and rough treatment of refugees. We are upset about xenophobic groups and rallies. But all of this is only the beginning. A foreboding of the future.
Europe has the misfortune of sharing its southern and southeastern borders with the most prolific population groups worldwide: Arabs, Iranians/Pakistani and Africans. Here an example of the demographic momentum typical of this region:
In Napoleon's days. Egypt's population was estimated at 2.4 to 4 million. By 1930 it counted 15 million. In 1952, when Nasser toppled the monarchy, the population had grown to 23 million. By 1985, Egypt counted 50 million. Today, some 85 million are living on arable land of the size of Alabama's farmland. Since 1985, the number of births per Egyptian woman has remained unchanged at 3.0 to 3.5 children. How many people will want to live along the Nile in 2030 or 2050?
No demographer -- the author included -- could imagine in 1960 that Egypt's population would ever attain a size like today's. In those days, the "Theory of Demographic Transition" prevailed, according to which all populations, after a period of strong growth. would experience a gradual to strong reduction of growth ending in population equilibrium.
The author himself wrote in 1962: "An analysis of population growth in Egypt convinced us that until now Egypt's population behaved in accordance with the principles of the theory (of demographic transition) . We therefore expect for the future a reduction of population growth in Egypt and an end to the growth cycle."(1)
Wrong. Totally wrong, as we know half a century later. Population growth has ridiculed all attempts at its explanation, theoretically, statistically or biologically. And Egypt is not a particularly drastic case. Syria, Palestine and Iran showed at least temporarily even stronger growth, not to speak of Africa south of the Sahara.
As is well known, population dynamics resemble a heavily loaded cargo ship: once it has begun moving in cannot be stopped for decades to come. In countries with an average age between 16 to 25 years the enormous potential for procreation will ensure further growth for a long time even if female fertility -- the number of births per woman -- is declining.
Although there are valid reasons not to trust too much in long term population projections, there are always reasons to try again with improved methodology. For the United Nations it is obligatory to periodically issue projections. Recently, two environment researchers undertook to develop realistic projections for the world population to 2100, taking current doubts and objections into consideration.
Corey J.A. Bradshaw (U. Adelaide) und Barry W. Brook (U. Tasmania) (2) wanted to calculate the extent of likely future loss of biological species. Since loss of species correlates with population density, the scientists needed to know where which level of density is to be expected. For this purpose the divided the globe in regions and tried to project the population for each region under different conditions.
This approach yielded a spectrum of new and seemingly realistic scenarios of future world population. As far as our subject is concerned we can exclude the expected loss of species and the global population projections until 2100. We are particularly interested in the scientists' results regarding population growth in the Near and Middle East, and in Africa.
Their conclusions, however, are scary. Based on United Nations data, the authors developed a series of scenarios ranging from business as usual to the worldwide enforcement of the one child policy, Chinese style. The business as usual scenario calculates population growth under the assumption that past trends continue as regards the gradual decline in mortality and fertility.
In western and northern Africa. (Region 1) the scenario expects for 2100 sevenfold the current population to 3 billion. For eastern and southern Africa, a 5.6 fold growth would also yield 3 billion. In Region 7 (Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Mediterranean countries of Europe) the population would grow 3.5 fold to 1.4 billion. Noteworthy in this context is the observation that Region 1 would become the second most densely populated region after the Indian subcontinent (Region 12). In the thinly settled Region 6, comprising the Arab Peninsula, Syria, Jordan, Libya and Tunisia, the population would grow to 1.7 times the current size. All other populations would either shrink or grow moderately (less than doubling). Only the Andean countries (Region 5) would attain 2.3 times the present size.
More important than these figures are the results of the "realistic" Scenario 2a which expects for 2100 a reduction of mortality to half the 2013 level, and a reduction of fertility from 2.37 to 2.00 children, commensurate with the trend of recent decades. The female age at primiparity (first child) would also rise.
Surprisingly, the results of scenarios 1 and 2a do not differ much. For 2050 the total world population would arrive at 9.3 or 9.23 billion, respectively. At the century's end, the Earth would be populated by 10.42 or 10.35 billion humans.
One of the study's main surprises is how limited the impact of temporary mass mortality events on total growth would be. Disasters of the magnitude of a world war, a global pandemic or rising infant mortality caused by climate change would affect population growth only in a limited way. Also, little change can be expected from population policies. Only the global enforcement of a draconian Chinese style one child policy could limit world population to about 9 billion in 2056 and reduce it to 7 billion by 2100.
The conclusions of the study by Bradshaw and Brook do not differ much from the results of the latest round of United Nations population projections (3) which upward revised the expected future worldwide growth. According to the UN, Africa's population will more than double to 2.4 billion by 2050 and continue growing strongly, attaining 4.2 billion by 2100. By then, more than every third human being would be an African. Of the 31 countries in which women have more than five children, 29 are located in Africa. In Niger and Somalia, seven children are the standard.
Asia now counts four times as many inhabitants as Africa. By 2050, there would live half as many Africans as Asians. By 2100, Africans would almost have caught up with Asians, according to the medium variant of the UN projections. Bradshaw and Brook expect Africa to become the most populous continent by 2100. As far as the Near and Middle East are concerned, Bradshaw and Brook expect 3.5 times the current population in Region 7 and 1.75 times in Region 6.
In any case, Africa will build up a hitherto unknown momentum of population pressure. Nigeria, the 1950 population of which was one quarter of the US population, would by 2100 have to accommodate twice as many people as the also quickly growing US. The Near and Middle East will also experience strong population growth. These likely trends lead to the question which consequences the demography of our southern and southeastern neighbors will have for Europe.
If we take the current level of illegal immigration as the starting point of our observation it appears that the Middle East is sending many political refugees whereas Africa south of the Sahara is sending mostly economically motivated migrants, "poverty refugees." This observation could lead to the assumption that the Middle Eastern problem would disappear once peace is restored to the region. This, however, is rather unlikely because a vital cause of the current troubles is the past population growth which resulted in the current existence of strong cohorts of young men faced with high levels of unemployment. For many the only alternative to misery is war, crime, terror and drug trade, as well as emigration. Peace and order will not return to the Middle East until these age cohorts have moved up in the age pyramid.
Africa shows a similar trend. The growth of population which even accelerated since the 1980s is in many countries breaking up the social structures and the traditional economy. This development could mean a welcome pressure modernizing the economy and breaking up patriarchal structures. On the other hand it is also conducive to creating those dreadful armies of jobless young men looking for a livelihood, no matter which.
The Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, Al Shabaab in Somalia, Séléka in the Central African Republic, Boko Haram in Nigeria and the tribal wars in South Sudan are only some better known violent militias which live on a variety of crimes from livestock rustling to slavery, to drug trade and ransom extortion. The oversupply of young men induces brutality and mayhem.
During the first gulf war between Iran and Iraq (1980-88) the Persians -- following decades of rapid population growth -- drove "human waves" of soldiers in the Iraqi minefields. Thousands died. Children are used as fighters by the Lord's Resistance Army, the various Mai Mai militias in eastern Congo, and now by the IS and Séléka.
On the other hand, several African countries are currently achieving remarkable economic progress led by telecommunications, banking and agriculture. The gradual expansion of a modern economy offers families alternatives to traditional old age insurance in form of children, human capital investment. With the one-child system, China directed family savings away from procreation to the money economy and banking. In this way, China built up the by far largest capital stock of developing countries which financed its ascent to the position of the world's largest economy.
In Africa as well, economic progress would redirect savings from procreation to the monetary sector. This, however, holds also true in reverse: in countries where chaos and destruction spread poverty, more human capital formation is to be expected, for instance in Somalia, in Yemen and probably also in Syria and Iraq.
Official immigration in from these regions into Europe was, according to UN data, for considerable time quite stable. In Italy, as a result of the economic crisis, the influx of legal migrants was halved to 250,000 in 2012 whereas in Germany the number rose to 400,000. In Italy, however, illegal migrants continue to arrive in increasing numbers, totaling 150,000 in 2014.
Although the OECD stressed that Europe needs and promotes stronger official immigration of young and preferably qualified people, illegal immigration is viewed with skepticism.
Most illegals are young but they are people who for whatever reason have not obtained or applied for a visa. This fact solicits caution in dealing with them. On an individual level, this does not pose a difficult problem which can be handled by emergency arrival arrangements, social assistance, jurisdiction and acceptance or expulsion. However, if illegals arrive in hundreds day after day, as Italy and Greece experienced, and in consequence also Germany and Sweden, this mass migration becomes a crisis.
Sometimes, individual cases can be quite unusual. In December 2014, a group of Syrian academics with their families fled in direction to Europe. When arriving in Istanbul they saw a large Italian cruise ship in the port. They inquired and learnt that the cabin fares of this luxury cruiser were lower than the tariffs charged by the smugglers taking refugees to Greece. They purchased first class accommodations, managed to board with their Syrian passports and descended in Bari. The Italian immigration police were utterly surprised. Never had they seen elegantly dressed gentlemen and their ladies who spoke English and French ask for asylum. As usual, they registered the personal data and sent the Syrians to the emergency reception center. A few hours later the Syrians had disappeared in northern direction, without leaving a trace.
The smuggling industry is getting increasingly better organized. It cynically exploits the European maritime rescue operations as a free and safe "ferry service." Europe's efforts to fend off potential immigrants who made it into Turkey or North Africa only result in increasing the fares charged by the smugglers.
On a European level, the situation appears still manageable. But what will happen if the numbers of illegals arriving rise in the wake of expanding conflicts and population growth? Positive economic development in parts of Africa may convince some potential migrants to drop their plans and stay at home. But it could also provide other candidates for migration with more means to bribe officials and pay smugglers. The results can be seen: whereas in the past the coyotes used old fishing boats and rubber dinghies they can now afford to buy old cargo ships which they abandon in mid sea after the crew has left. Soon they might even use aircraft and parachutes. In southern Italy, the trafickers have established ties with the local mafias which hide arriving crew members from police and "recycle" them.
Fort a potential migrant it is possible to book the fare in the Arabic Facebook. Ships to Italy are leaving on schedule every two to three days from the Turkish ports of Istanbul, Mersin and Antalya. The coyotes are Syrians and accept cash payment in Turkey (current tariff US$8,000) or bank wiring, according to information from passengers of the cargo ship Blue Sky M. after its arrival in Gallipoli, the Italian newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano reported.
The European defense force Frontex is being criticized for its xenophobic mandate. Italy tries to get rid of its former maritime salvaging service Mare Nostrum. Instead of towing refugees' boats, the Italian party Northern League would prefer to bomb them. In Greece, xenophobia has led to the creation of the right wing party ΧρυσήΑυγή (Golden Dawn). In Saxony, a German province with very few foreigners, citizen demonstrated against being "overwhelmed" by foreigners, mostly muslims. In France, the anti-Islam right wing Front National party is getting ready for the presidency.
Most of these developments still signify populism and folklore rather than a threat to Europe's existence. But what will happen if the influx of illegals continues to swell in the years to come?
If in North Africa walls of people are lining the coasts, waiting for the ship of their dreams or their death, what is Europe going to do?
Heinrich von Loesch
-----------------------------------------
(1) Heinrich v. Loesch: Ernährung und Bevölkerung in der Entwicklung der ägyptischen Wirtschaft. Thesis, LMU, p. 47f.
(2) Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. Bradshaw and Brook 10.1073/pnas.1410465111
Iran: Proposed laws reduce women to ‘baby making machines’ in misguided attempts to boost population
Women in Iran could face significant restrictions on their use of contraceptives and be further excluded from the labour market unless they have had a child, if two proposed laws are approved, says a new report by Amnesty International published today.“ The bills reinforce discriminatory stereotypes of women, and mark an unprecedented move by the state to interfere in people’s personal lives. In their zealous quest to project an image of military might and geopolitical strength by attempting to increase birth rates, Iran’s authorities are trampling all over the fundamental rights of women - even the marital bed is not out of bounds.”
The Bill to Increase Fertility Rates and Prevent Population Decline (Bill 446) outlaws voluntary sterilization, which is believed to be the second most common method of modern contraception in Iran, and blocks access to information about contraception, denying women the opportunity to make informed decisions about having children. Coupled with the elimination of state funding for Iran’s family planning programme, which had, up until 2012, provided millions of women in the country with access to affordable modern contraception, the move would undoubtedly result in greater numbers of unwanted pregnancies, forcing more women to seek illegal and unsafe abortions.Lack of access to condoms, which were previously dispensed through urban clinics and rural health houses funded by Iran’s Family and Population Planning Programme, would also lead to a rise in sexually transmitted infections, including HIV.
The bill was passed in parliament with an overwhelming majority in August 2014 and is undergoing amendments as recommended by the Guardian Council, a body which needs to approve it before it can become law. Without such access, women will either have to carry their pregnancies to term when it is not their choice to do so; or risk their life and health by undergoing unsafe, clandestine abortions.
Amnesty International, 11 March 2015
Written on .
In tutti i paesi sviluppati il ruolo economico delle Pmi è indiscutibilmente importante. Ancor di più in Italia. Ma ovunque sono le imprese relativamente giovani che creano nuovi occupati e generano maggior valore aggiunto. Purtroppo, da noi la percentuale di queste aziende è più bassa che altrove.
L’IMPORTANZA DI ESSERE UNA PMI
Per anni, politici ed economisti hanno dibattuto su quanto le piccole imprese fossero il motore dello sviluppo economico. Oggi però una serie di studi ha mostrato come i veri propulsori della crescita siano le imprese giovani. Il fatto poi che queste siano piccole induce nell’erronea percezione che a guidare la crescita dell’occupazione, dei profitti e del prodotto interno lordo siano le imprese piccole anziché giovani. Tutto ciò può avere importanti conseguenze sulle politiche industriali. Partiamo dai fatti. In tutti i principali paesi sviluppati le piccole e medie imprese (PMI), con dimensioni inferiori a 250 addetti, rappresentano oltre il 95 per cento del numero delle imprese, il 60 per cento degli occupati e sopra il 50 per cento del valore aggiunto. In Italia questi valori sono ben maggiori, giacché le Pmi pesano il 99,9 per cento del totale delle imprese, l’80 per cento degli occupati e il 71 per cento del valore aggiunto. Straordinariamente alta è soprattutto la percentuale delle micro imprese, sotto i 10 dipendenti, che contano quasi il 90 per cento del nostro apparato produttivo. All’estremo opposto stanno paesi quali gli Stati Uniti, dove comunque le Pmi contano per quasi il 50 per cento degli occupati e del Pil. In altri termini, il ruolo economico delle Pmi è ovunque indiscutibilmente importante ed è quindi logico che a esse dedichino molta attenzione economisti e soprattutto politici.
SPARTIACQUE È L’ANZIANITÀ
Se tuttavia ci soffermiamo sul contributo delle diverse tipologie di aziende alla crescita economica e alla formazione di nuovi posti di lavoro, il quadro appare più complesso. Infatti, in linea generale, la letteratura economica ha mostrato come le aziende piccole tendono a investire meno in capitale umano, fisico e intangibile e sono meno innovative. Un’analisi più attenta mostra soprattutto come la distinzione fra imprese piccole e grandi appare poco rilevante giacché il vero spartiacque risulta essere l’anzianità delle imprese.
Infatti in tutti paesi avanzati, le imprese relativamente giovani creano nuovi occupati e generano maggior valore aggiunto, mentre quelle più vecchie tendono a distruggere occupazione e valore. Questo anche al netto della maggiore “mortalità infantile” che ovviamente incide in maniera importante sulle imprese più giovani. Inoltre le nuove imprese tendono ad aumentare la competizione e l’efficienza nonché a introdurre innovazione nel sistema. Naturalmente le imprese giovani sono, almeno nei primi anni di vita, piccole. In questa prospettiva, le imprese giovani italiane, al pari di quelle degli altri paesi, mostrano un contributo alla crescita dell’occupazione particolarmente positivo. Il dramma italiano, per altro simile a quello giapponese, è che la percentuale di imprese giovani appare più bassa degli altri principali paesi. Fa eccezione il settore della moda.
Sotto questa angolatura è possibile rileggere l’intera storia economica italiana del dopoguerra, dagli anni del boom economico, che hanno visto la nascita di centinaia di nuove aziende piccole, che in alcuni casi poi sono diventate grandi, al recente declino economico, dove avviare una start-up è un’impresa alquanto difficile. Se la globalizzazione el’information technologyhanno reso il contesto macroeconomico nazionale meno rilevante per la nascita e sviluppo di nuove aziende, più cruciali sono diventati sia il quadro normativo che l’offerta di servizi efficienti. Particolarmente significativo è il supporto creditizio, che risulta determinate in una fase di avvio, ma complesso data la presenza di forte asimmetrie informative, azzardo morale e problemi di agenzia.
Negli ultimi anni i Governi italiani hanno messo in piedi una serie di strumenti, quali il fondo centrale di garanzia, che almeno nella versione attuale, si sono dimostrati efficienti nel supportare le piccole imprese esistenti. Altri se ne dovranno immaginare, al di là del decreto sulle start-up innovative del 2012, per far nascere nuove imprese, vero motore dello sviluppo. Da questo punto di vista, l’esperienza francese in materia merita molta attenzione, se non altro per i risultati ottenuti. Tutto ciò sarà però l’oggetto di un futuro intervento.
