This year’s parade featured an expanded military presence, with a new fleet of tanks rolling across Red Square, alongside rocket launchers, TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrower systems, and Iskander ballistic missiles – all weapons used in the war in Ukraine. For the first time, several types of modern Russian-made drones were also on display, underscoring their role as a defining feature of the conflict. (The Guardian)
Die Moskauer Horrorshow verrät vieles: Russland verfügt auch über eine ähnlich große Auswahl an Artillerie, Flugzeugen, Drohnen und Schiffen. Es ist eine Herausforderung, diese enorme Vielfalt an Rüstungsgütern in ausreichender Stückzahl zu produzieren, sie laufend zu warten und alle Ersatzteile ständig auf Lager zu haben.
Russland ist keine riesige Volkswirtschaft wie die USA oder China, oder wie es die Sowjetunion einst war. Der hypertrophe Rüstungssektor muss als das eigentliche Herzstück der russischen Wirtschaft angesehen werden, daneben gibt es nur noch Erdöl und Erdgas. Kein Wunder, dass viele Konsum- und Investitionsgüter importiert werden müssen.
Es ist auch kein Wunder, dass das ständig wachsende und modernisierte Arsenal nach Anwendung und Einsatz ruft. Der Krieg in der Ukraine ist eine willkommene Gelegenheit, die Vielzahl der Waffen in der Kriegsrealität statt in Manövern zu testen und ständig zu verbessern. Ohne den Ukraine-Krieg wäre es unmöglich, Russlands Militär auf den Kampf mit der NATO vorzubereiten.
Deshalb sollte der Ukraine-Krieg aus russischer Sicht weder unterbrochen noch gar beendet werden: ein Prinzip, an dem Donald Trump mit seinen Friedensfantasien gescheitert ist.
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Entire sectors of the Soviet economy have been undermined by Putin’s regime opting to invest in hydrocarbon production while importing technology. Spending three to five trillion rubles on “import substitution” that mostly involved evading sanctions has done little to increase domestic capacity in high technology.
Harley Balzer -- Kyiv Post.
Kommentar
So wie Hitler 1939 durch die Verfügbarkeit eines riesigen Rüstungspotenzials dazu verleitet wurde, einen Weltkrieg zu beginnen, so könnte die Existenz einer riesigen Kriegsmaschine heute Wladimir Putin dazu verleiten, den roten Knopf zu drücken und den Konflikt mit dem Westen zu riskieren. Waffen liegen nicht friedlich im Regal: Sie entwickeln ihre eigene Logik, und die heißt Kampf.
Potsdam conference 1945:
....the Soviet leadership had ordered plans to be drawn for an invasion of France and Italy and a seizure of the straits between Denmark and Norway. In 1945, Soviet General Sergei Shtemenko told Sergo Beria, whose father had been a feared Soviet secret police chief during the Stalin era, “It was expected that the Americans would abandon a Europe fallen into chaos, while Britain and France would be paralyzed by their colonial problems.” This, Soviet leaders thought, created an opening. Only on learning that the United States was close to building the atom bomb were the plans abandoned—even if Moscow’s appetite for expansion was not.
Update
The military issues website BulgarianMilitary.com cites Uralvagonzavod’s CEO Alexander Potapov as saying that the tanks that rolled into Ukraine in early 2022 are distinctly dissimilar from those being produced now and the company’s efforts to introduce design changes necessitated by challenges on the battlefield will continue – sadly these will come too late for the crews of the almost 4,000 tanks which Moscow has already lost in Ukraine, according to the Oryx open-source warfare research group.
In Frankreich glauben 55 % der Befragten, dass in den nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahren ein globaler Konflikt ausbrechen könnte. Es ist das einzige Land, in dem diese Befürchtung die Mehrheitsschwelle überschreitet, aber auch anderswo sind die Ergebnisse hoch: 43 % im Vereinigten Königreich, 42 % in Deutschland und bis zu 49 % in Italien. Die Spannungen zwischen Russland und dem Westen, die sich durch den Krieg in der Ukraine verschärft haben, werden als größte Bedrohung wahrgenommen, noch vor dem islamistischen Terrorismus oder den transatlantischen Reibereien.
Update
Satellite imagery has revealed an increase in Russia's military activity near its border with Finland signaling its intention to beef up its troops by NATO's eastern flank.
The pictures from earth imaging company Planet Labs PBC show increased accommodation, aircraft deployment, and infrastructure construction at four military bases near the country.
Finnish military analyst Emil Kastehelmi said if Russia follows it current plans, there could be tens of thousands new soldiers near the borders of Norway, Finland and the Baltic countries in the coming years.
Russia and Belarus are preparing for a large-scale joint military exercise, Zapad-2025, scheduled for this fall near the borders of NATO member Poland.
Military analysts warn the drills could be used as a pretext for troop buildup and potential escalation, drawing comparisons to similar maneuvers that preceded Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal reported on April 28 that in parallel to the planned exercises, Russian military engineers are expanding bases in Petrozavodsk, approximately 160 kilometers from the Finnish border.
According to the report, the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a new army headquarters expected to command tens of thousands of troops over the coming years.
Western military officials and intelligence sources cited in the article say these forces may form the core of a Russian army positioned for confrontation with NATO.
In a statement to the Journal, officials said the build-up includes expanded recruitment efforts, weapons production, and extensive upgrades to rail lines in Russia’s northwestern regions. New barracks, training grounds, and modernized arsenals are planned around Petrozavodsk. Railway infrastructure is also being extended along the borders with Finland and Norway, and southward from St. Petersburg toward Estonia.
Russian defense observers view this activity as part of a broader strategy to prepare for a potential conflict with NATO. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said returning Russian units from Ukraine will eventually be “looking across the border at a country they now regard as an adversary.”
In its February report, Denmark’s military intelligence agency warned that Russia could launch a major war in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO as vulnerable. Western officials add that a ceasefire in Ukraine could accelerate Moscow’s reconstitution of military strength.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev issued new threats against recently joined NATO members, specifically naming Finland and Sweden.
“Now they are in a bloc hostile to us, which means they automatically became a target for our armed forces, including possible retaliatory strikes and even the nuclear component,” Medvedev said. He claimed that prior to joining NATO, these countries benefited from “certain international preferences,” which are now void.
“They simply entered the crosshairs of our armed forces,” Medvedev added. “Is life better for them now? No. These are political games.”
Military experts caution that Zapad-2025 could serve as cover for mass deployment, similar to 2021, when Russia positioned forces in Belarus before the February 2022 invasion. The exercises, though officially described as defensive, are widely viewed as a potential rehearsal for further confrontation in Eastern Europe.
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland in what experts and officials say could be a preparation for a potential clash with NATO, the Wall Street Journal reported on April 28.
These efforts include expanding military bases near the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, around 160 kilometers (100 miles) east of Finland, the planned site for a new headquarters that could potentially command tens of thousands of troops, the outlet wrote.
Western military and intelligence officials are reportedly warning that these units could form the "backbone" of Russia's forces preparing to confront NATO.
Since the start of Russia's all-out war against Ukraine, NATO officials have increasingly warned Moscow could launch aggression against the alliance's members in the coming years.
Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia, has accused Moscow of ramping up hybrid operations against the Nordic country since it joined NATO in 2023.
Russia's military is currently heavily engaged in Ukraine, suffering massive losses in manpower and equipment. This has forced Moscow to redeploy forces from other areas over the past years, with a media investigation saying last June that most of the Russian ground units previously stationed near Finland were dispatched to Ukraine.
Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. forces in Europe, nevertheless warned earlier this month that Russia is rebuilding its forces much faster than previously anticipated.
"Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated," Cavoli told a U.S. Senate committee.
According to the general, the U.S. expects Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which could help it build a stockpile three times larger than the U.S. and Europe combined.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said last December that Russia must be ready for a potential conflict with NATO in the next 10 years. Moscow has also issued a number of veiled and overt threats to the West over its support for Kyiv, including warnings of a possible nuclear response.
NATO countries in Russia's vicinity have intensified their preparations for a possible conflict. Poland and the Baltic countries moved to abandon a treaty banning land mines and are strengthening the borders shared with Russia and its ally Belarus while urging higher defense spending across the alliance.
Marc R. DeVore und Alexander Mertens haben in einer Analyse der russischen Kriegswirtschaft vorausgesagt, dass Russland bis 2025 keine Kanonenrohre mehr haben wird, da die Bestände aus der Sowjetära aufgebraucht sind und die aktuelle Produktion durch einen Mangel an österreichischen Werkzeugmaschinen gebremst wird. Weder der Iran noch Nordkorea könnten helfen. Nur China wäre in der Lage, Russlands Bedarf an Rohren zu decken. Den Autoren zufolge ist dies nur ein Beispiel für die Engpässe, mit denen das russische Militär konfrontiert ist.
Danish officials have warned that Russia could launch some sort of attack within six months of the war in Ukraine slowing or ending.
These two images of Russia are difficult to reconcile: a Russia that is dismally failing to reach its ambitions in Ukraine and a Russia that poses an existential threat to NATO, especially the Eastern European states.
Foreign Policy.
.In einer Ansprache in Berlin warnte Generalleutnant Alfons Mais, Inspekteur des Heeres, dass die Gefechte in der Ukraine Putins Truppen auf lange Sicht erfahrener und stärker machen werden. Mais erwartet infolgedessen eine Verlagerung der Aggression in den kommenden Jahren. Die Ukraine werde mehr und mehr in den Hintergrund geraten, während die Nato zunehmend in den Fokus rücke.
Die russischen Streitkräfte verstärken laut Mais nicht nur ihre personellen und materiellen Ressourcen. Sie werden in Zukunft auch „ihre Lehren aus den Erfahrungen in der Ukraine strukturell, technisch und taktisch umgesetzt haben“. Die Bilder von schlecht ausgerüsteten russischen Soldaten an der Front sollten nicht von den Fortschritten ablenken, die Russland im gleichen Zuge erziele. Die aktuellen Nachrichten würden verdeutlichen, dass „die ukrainischen Truppenteile für die russischen Streitkräfte gar nicht mehr im Schwerpunkt liegen, sondern dass man sich im Schwerpunkt auf eine Auseinandersetzung mit der Nato vorbereitet“, wird der Generalleutnant zitiert.
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