What a weird question! As is well known, most European countries (with the exception of UK and France) are suffering from shrinking populations. A shortfall of young contributors threatens public pension schemes burdened with ageing baby boomers. A new kind of old age poverty is looming; young people are being told that they will never achieve their parents' standard of living.

   Germany has launched an immigration campaign comparable to Israel's and attracted 1.1 million migrants in 2015 alone.Slaves for Germany's industry” called them France's Marine Le Pen. Economists see them as future taxpayers expected to fill gaping holes among the German work force.

   In this context, immigration is interpreted as beneficial as mother's milk, not only in Europe.

   Time magazine said: “... the vast majority of the economic literature argues that a more liberal immigration policy would be good for the U.S. economy as a whole.” Ronald Reagan told the Republicans: “Whatever happens, don't stop immigration!”

 

The Cleveland mystery

   Cleveland OH is at the bottom of the ranking for job growth potential among 66 large American cities, only four steps above Camden NJ, the monument of de-industrialization and crime.

"Cleveland is dying," says Jim Russell. "Not only has the per-capita income gone up in Cleveland as the population has declined, it is growing at a faster rate than in Columbus where the population is on the upswing."  

cleveland

    Although Columbus OH enjoys a middle-level ranking for job growth, it has been overtaken by Cleveland in per capita income.   From 2003-12, the Cleveland metro's total personal income increased by about $20 million. 

"Another example of how population growth is outdated as an important economic metric," says Jim Russell. "Population a good number for 1950s economies, a fine measure of manufacturing's dominance. Manufacturing isn't dominant anymore. Neither is population growth. Today, fewer people are needed to produce more goods. The old numbers are out of touch with the economic transformation."

  "For example, the region's rate of educational attainment appears less-than-competitive in a knowledge economy. About 28 percent of adults in the Cleveland metropolitan area hold a college degree, compared to 35 percent in metro Columbus... Younger newcomers are fueling the brain gain. The number of college-educated 25 to 34 year olds in Greater Cleveland grew by 23 percent from 2006 to 2012.

   The skill level of Cleveland's young adult workforce is world class. It ranks 7th nationally, ahead of San Francisco, Chicago, Seattle and Austin, for professional and graduate degrees."

 

The Japan mystery

   Japan's population is ageing and shrinking. Yet, the country stubbornly refuses to accept more than a tiny trickle of immigrants.

"Opinion polls show the Japanese public to be increasingly worried about the effects of the declining population. However, when asked what should be done to secure the labor supply, the top two answers in an April Yomiuri poll were to increase the rate of working women and encourage more elderly to work. Only 37 percent said more foreign workers should be accepted, and only 10 percent of those said manual workers should be brought in."

   International media, especially American ones, have for years described Japan as a depressed economy suffering from two decades of stagnation. Yet, the opposite holds true. 

Japan

japan3

    Production of goods and services is based on three inputs: labor force, capital and total factor productivity (TFP). A declining labor force will raise the capital stock per caput and increase productivity (unless the investment has become obsolete, e.g. a wastewater plant in an abandoned village). Reduced fertility permits more investment in fewer children, resulting in a better educated generation, Better education leads to more R&D investment, hence higher TFP.  In this way, GDP of a shrinking population will rise*), at least per capita, as shown by Japan. 

 Tim Worstall says: When we look at ...things from the point of view of the life experienced by people ...Japan is the third best performing country of those measured.   Even after two “lost decades” life in Japan... is still getting better. Rather better than it has in either the US or UK over the past decade too.

 

japan

   Actually, if we look at the decade from 2005 to 2014 and compare the long term top performer Australia with Japan, we get a different picture. Measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) US dollars, Australia's per capita GDP increased from 38.900 to 43.200, i.e. by 11.3 percent. Japan's per capita GDP rose from 30.200 to 37.400, or by 23.8 percent. 

Australia

australia

Japanjapan2

   No doubt, Japan continues to be a star performer -- without immigration. How did the Japanese achieve this surprising performance?

    There are several possible explanations. Often mentioned is Japan's world leading role in robotization not only at the factory level. Outsourcing of menial tasks to other Asian countries. 'Brain gain' by improving human capital**). Longer working years, later retirement age. Clever use of investments financed by the public sovereign debt which is at the world's highest level. 

   Nothing miraculous, however. Nothing which demographically shrinking European countries could not emulate, if they wished. In fact, an increasing number of countries have opted for no or only limited immigration: Denmark and Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as Italy, Spain, Portugal and France. 

   There is no economic reason***) to criticize them for this policy. At the human level, that is of course a different story.

-----------------------------------------------

 

*)The second and most devastating bubonic plague in Europe which started in 1347 and killed off one third of the population is thought by historians to have reduced the level of malnutrition of the remaining population and permitted a more affluent lifestyle which ushered in the Renaissance period of modernization. 

**) Countries characterized by stagnant or shrinking populations appear more creative than those with growing populations. Japan and Europe are granted more patents and gain more science and economy relevantNobel prizes than India, China, the Moslem countries and Sub-Saharan Africa. The population of the United States, another creative country, continues rising mainly because of legal and illegal immigration.

patents

Source: European Patent Office

***)    Jean-Laurent Cassely of  Le Monde says in Slate: Let's stop justifying immigration with economic and demographic arguments. He explains that migrants entering France don't care for the country's requirements. The migrants do not arrive to repair gaps in the age pyramid. He quotes the demographer François Héran who says that in any case the French population will see its share of old-age people double by 2060 because of the growth of life expectancy. "The contribution of migrants to repairing the pension systems is necessarily limited because ageing is first of all resulting from increased longevity."

"Ninety percent of the migration streams do not respond to our needs but to the rights of the migrants. The social scientists's job is neither to assuage nor to alarm the public about the effects of immigration but to provide a more objective view on the phenomenon."

Also of interest:

 

Jan van Ours 

Age, wage, and productivity

"Ageing populations are a concern for many developed countries, with increasing dependence on the working population expected. Despite this, there is relatively little research on how productivity changes with age. This column argues that while older people do not run as fast, there is no evidence of a mental productivity decline and little evidence of an increasing pay-productivity gap. The negative effects of ageing on productivity should not be exaggerated.."

 

 

 

 

The German Case

For decades after World War II, Germany did not engage in demographic research because of the historical role of this science as a tool of Nazi imperialism and racism. However, when the baby boomer years ended and the prospect of a shrinking population was looming, demography once again became a matter of naional concern. Years of alarmist predictions and projections paved the way for broad popular acceptance of immigration as an unavotdable requirement for maintaining a stable labor force needed to ensure Germany's role as a major economy. The enthusiasm with which Germany in 2015 welcomed a sudden massive influx of refugees and migrants was motivated by empathy as well as by a broad recognition that immigration was necessary and beneficial for Germany.

During the following years, many Germans -- especially in the eastern provinces liberated in 1989 -- had second thoughts about the benefits of immigration. The government responded to popular concern by attempting to reduce immigration -- in lockstep with other European countries -- from a stream to a trickle.

While the monster of uncontrolled immigration was at least temporarily tamed, the objective of maintaining a stable labor force fell by the wayside. Also, doubts arose whether these immigrants from Asia and Africa were linguistically and professionally qualified to fill vacancies offered by the German economy. Only their children raised in Germany were considered fully qualified, involving a generation's time lag until the economy would reap the full benefits from the current model of immigration.

A rather uncomfortable situation which portrays immigration as a very long term investment of considerable public funds yielding limited direct benefits and not resolving the labor market problems. A situation which pleases neither the population at large nor the economy, and favors xenophobe, sovranistic movements and parties.

At this point, a government institute for demographic research issued an amazing study which contradicted the popular assumption that Germany's economy was doomed unless immigration filled the  labor force gaps. Analyzing medium term prospects until 2030, the study concluded that Germany itself was at least partly able to fill the gaps by itself, with its own population.

The study proposes a panoply of reasons why the German population would be able and eager to fill the gaps.

  • The number of economically active people is in itself no criterion; it is the level of qualification and the number of hours worked which determine the supply side of the labor market
  • While the baby boomers will be leaving the labor market, women and people over 55 will  bolster the labor force and "to a large extent fill the gaps", the study concludes
  • Improved health and longevity will extend the working years per person; decades of better education are resulting in higher qualification and with it to more hours worked since the best qualified are also the hardest working group. 

It is, of course, a moot point to ask if the study was perhaps influenced by political considerations, being isued by a government authority. Still, the research seems to support the Japanese experience that growth is possible with a shrinking labor force.  However, to fill the generational gaps, two major policy changes are required

  • a comprehensive and sustained effort to facilitate more and better participation of women in the labor force by alleviating women's traditional family and household chores, and by encouraging girls to opt for "typically male" professions and jobs;
  • abolish all pension age and compulsory retirement regulations (ageism), letting people work as long as they like it und feel fit. Fully active octogenarians should become as commonplace as in they are in the United States. Taxation should be tuned to encourage rather than punish work after passing the retirement threshold. Retirees kept inactive by law or/and tax rules constitute a colossal waste of labor, considering that in countries such as Germany close to a fifth or a quarter of the population is over 65 years old.

 

The Italian Case

Italy has the fastest shrinking population in Europe. Every year deaths ( 633.133) exceed births (439.747) by some 200,000 units.  With 1,32 births per woman, Italy's current birth rate is the lowest since the Kingdom of Italy was established in 1871 Only immigration prevented a more spectacular decline of the population. Some 100,000 foreigners (mostly Albanians and Moroccans) are naturalized per year; about 4 million immigrants are registered as foreign residents in Italy. In addition there is an unknown number (probably millions) of illegal residents. Like in Germany, U.K. and  France, the share of foreigners in the total population could be well above 10 percent.

Few of these foreigners are refugees in the proper sense because Italy's support to immigrants is very limited. Almost all of them are -- by necessity -- economically active. Pictures of young foreigners wasting time by circling inner cities on bicycle are absent. Everyone has a job, and be it begging or petty crime. The Senegalese specialize in fake luxury goods; the Chinese are operating their maquiladora factories producing Chinese goods "Made in Italy". Each nationality cultivates its own sector. With all this "imported" activity, Italy's economy should be booming, according to traditional economics. But Italy is no Malta:  its economy is stagnating since 2009.

Contrary to Germany, for instance, Italy's labor market does not suffer from a generational gap: to the contrary there are more young people looking for jobs than the economy is willing to absorb. In fact, one of the reasons for Italy's low current fertility is the lack of promising prospects. The "father-mother-child" family model is increasingly replaced by a "father-mother-dog" model and by singles. Contrary to Germany, the fertility of Italians continues to decline.

In terms of the labor market, reducing fertility is probably an adequate response to the endemic economic stagnation. Less jobs, less Italians, more brain drain. More immigrants who are tough enough to  reap a living in a deteriorating economy -- Italy is going in Third World directions.

Does Italy need immigration? Perhaps yes, to paper over the demographic decline. To some extent, Italy needs foreigners to perform menial work refused by Italian youngsters who prefer to remain jobless. Women? Their participation in the labor force is rising but still abysmally low. Old age activity? By necessity, pension agers are either continuing in their jobs blocking vacancies allegedly needed by youngsters or finding other legal or illegal ways to continue working.  The persistent youth unemployment is a mirror image of the rising share of the old-age occupation. Both are a result of stagnation. Pensioners are often said to be better qualified and more disciplined than the current generation of youngsters.

This trend is likely to continue as long as Italy is not able and willing to introduce the sweeping reforms, also in education, it has been postponing for decades. Meanwhile, Italy's accelerating brain drain is a boon for better-off countries such as the U.S., U.K, and Germany.

An old mockery expressed by Italy's northern citizens (derogatorily called polentoni -- polenta-eaters) considers all of Italy south of Florence (inhabited by terroni -- earth eaters) a part of Africa (Rome included !) No joke anymore: all of Italy nowadays experiences a migration similar to Africa's. The best educated, the most daring among its youth are leaving the Italy in droves in search of a job, a decent life, a career. Contrary to African migrants they don't have to cross a dangerous sea; all they require is a work visa or, in the case of  EU countries, no permit at all. No Frontex, no border control chases them; no Brussels summit is concerned by their migration, nobody calls them refugees: they are "white Africans" for whom all doors are wide open.

Small wonder that they don't hesitate to abandon the belpaese. Once they have established themselves abroad they will send remittances to their families at home. Many of them will help other relatives to join them, de facto establishing a new family in the new country. This wave of migration is in lack of a better term still belittled as brain drain when in reality it is a growing trend bleeding the country: a threat lurking behind doors waiting for an economic crisis to happen -- for instance Italy reneging on its sovereign debt -- to become a mass phenomenon.

The arguably most useful part of an education in Italy todays is to learn a foreign language. English language schools are booming all over Italy. While the great migration of Romanians and Albanians to Italy is slowing because these countries have emptied themselves, Italy's migration is waiting to happen.

Heinrich von Loesch

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   The latest twist in Turkish efforts to wriggle out of the Russian jet disaster:

   "Pro-government columnist Cem Küçük recently said he believes Gülen's followers in the THK (Turkish Air Forces) downed the Russian jet. "Some of the F-16 pilots are pro-Fethullah (Gülen) figures; this is included in official records. Airspace violations took place 50-60 times. If you ask me, this is the work of pro-Fethullah figures," he said, adding the move was aimed at putting Ankara in a difficult position.

   Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called on the government and its supporters not to insult people's intelligence."

-- ed

   The European Union promised to pay 3 billion euros to Turkey to help the government defray the cost of hosting large numbers of refugees, mostly from Syria. But how many Syrians are there in Turkey? How much did the government spend on them?

   At the start of 2015, the official number was 1.6 million. During the year, some 850,000 refugees, most of them Syrians, left Turkey for Greece and Bulgaria, according to the International Organization for Migration. Since only relatively small numbers of Syrians officially entered Turkey in the course of the year, the total remaining in Turkey should be substantially below 1.6 million. Instead, the official figure is now 2.2 million. What happened?

   Eda Bekçi, head of the İzmir-based Association for Solidarity with Refugees,  believes a significant portion of those who went to Greece may be Syrians who were never registered in Turkey. “There are many Syrians who come to Turkey only to pass to Greece within a week.”

   If the official figure of 2.2 million refugees is correct, then more than 1 million Syrian refugees must have entered Turkey this year, given that roughly 500,000 should be subtracted from last year's 1,650,000, says the Turkish newspaper Sunday's Zaman.

   The actual number of Syrians in Turkey may be much higher than the officially announced figure, which represents those Syrians who have been registered by the Turkish authorities, and many others are known to have entered Turkey in the early years of the civil war without any official registration.

   Murat Gezici, the head of the Gezici Research Company, believes the official figures reflecting the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey are not reliable. “It is revealing that the governors in provinces (bordering Syria) such as Hatay and Adana don't answer questions about the population of the Syrian refugees in their provinces,” Gezici told Sunday's Zaman.

   Gezici estimates, based on his polling company's research, the number of the Syrian refugees currently in Turkey to be between 3 and 3.5 million. Gezici estimated back in March that the figure was around 2,850,000, a number much higher than the official figure of nearly 2 million Syrians at that time.

    Fuat Oktay of the Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate said a year ago that Turkey spent $5 billion on Syrian refugees. He added that the figure included money spent on the humanitarian aid sent by Turkey's Red Crescent to Syria.

   In April this year, Cevdet Yılmaz, minister of development, said Turkey spent $5.6 billion on Syrian refugees. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in June that Turkey had spent more than $6 billion on Syrian refugees. That indicates a rise, in roughly two months, of around half a million dollars, or maybe slightly higher, while the number of Syrians hosted in camps reportedly remained about the same during this period.

   In November however, Erdoğan sharply increased the estimated figure for those who are hosted in camps, to $8.5 billion. Then in December, Erdoğan said in remarks to Al Jazeera that Turkey spent as much as $9 billion on Syrians.

See the Sunday's Zaman article here

 

    Lars Feld, einer der fünf Weisen des Wirtschaftsrats beim FInanzminister, hat in Italien ein Erdbeben losgetreten mit einem Interview im Corriere della Sera. Professor Feld. Ordoliberaler in Freiburg, erklärte, dass Italien nach dem am 1. Januar in Kraft tretenden neuen EU-Mechanismus seine schuldenbeladenen Banken nicht mehr durch den Staat retten oder ihnen mit verborgenen Subventionen helfen dürfe. Stattdessen müssten die Eigner von Bankobligationen und die Konten über 100.000 Euro beitragen, die Schulden zu tilgen und die Bilanzen zu bereinigen. Bail-in heisst das Stichwort, aus Zypern sattsam bekannt; haircut ist das Verfahren, das die Schere bei Bankkonten oberhalb 100.000 Euro ansetzt.

    Falls das Verfahren zu finanziellen Turbulenzen führen sollte und der italienische Staat sich wegen des steigenden spread nicht mehr am Markt finanzieren könnte, meint Feld – dem Nähe zu Finanzminister Schäuble attestiert wird – dass die Regierung ja Hilfe beim Europäischen Stabilitäts-Mechanismus ESM suchen und sich damit die Troika nach Rom holen könne. Das würde helfen, die Ansteckung Europas durch italienische Turbulenzen zu vermeiden.

   Eine kalte Dusche für Italien, das sich dank der Reformen der Regierung Renzi und der langsam anspringenden Wirtschaft schon aus dem Gröbsten heraus wähnte.

    Unter dem Titel “Banken in Panik” antwortete Alberto Bagnai im Fatto Quotidiano mit einem offenen Brief an Lars Feld. Er rechnet vor, dass Berlin seine Banken mit 250 Milliarden gerettet habe, während es nun Italien verbiete, das Gleiche zu tun.

    Feld hat freilich dieses Argument im Corriere schon schlau beantwortet: “Damals wäre es unsinnig gewesen, die Sparer zu treffen, denn die finanzielle Ansteckung war schon Wirklichkeit. Es herrschte finanzielle Krise, wie erinnerlich. Diesmal ist die Lage anders. Wir wissen nicht, ob eine Gefahr der Ansteckung existiert, Daher gibt es keinen Grund, die Restrukturierung und den bail-in zu vertagen.”

    Ob Italien die Logik dieses Sophismus begreifen und akzeptieren wird, ist mehr als fraglich. Bagnai jedenfalls findet, dass in Europa die Starken offenbar gleicher sind als die anderen und listet genüsslich alle früheren deutschen Verstösse gegen EU-Regeln auf, vom Defizit höher als 3 Prozent bis zu den Landesbanken, den Sparkassen und der HSH Nordbank. Er plädiert, kaum überraschend, für eine Europäisierung des Risikos von Bankpleiten durch eine europäische Bankkonten-Versicherung.

    Luigi Guiso hält den neuen EU-Mechanismus für nicht funktionsfähig. Er rechnet damit, dass die meisten Sparer nicht genug Marktkenntnis haben, um rechtzeitig zu erkennen, ob ihre Bank bedroht ist und es sich empfiehlt, das Guthaben abzuziehen oder die Bankobligation abzustossen. Geht die Bank pleite, so sind meist die Ersparnisse eines Lebens verloren, sagt Professor Guiso. Im Falle der vier italienischen Grossbanken rechnet er damit, dass Millionen Sparer ruiniert würden.

    Obgleich der Staat nunmehr die Banken nicht mehr retten dürfe, so würde die Katastrophe ihn doch zwingen, einzuschreiten. “Die Anteilnahme des Staates, der die Türe versperrt ist, käme durch das Fenster wieder herein. Es wäre schwierig für die Regierung, dem Druck, die Verluste der Sparer zu kompensieren. zu widerstehen”

    Die jüngst von der Pleite der vier Kleinbanken Banca Etruria, Banca delle Marche, CariFerrara und CariChieti ausgelösten Unruhen illustrieren dramatisch Guisos Argument. Selbst Brüssel könnte Rom mutmasslich nicht bremsen, falls Italiens Regierung sich gezwungen sähe, Kreditoren der Grossbanken zu entschädigen.   

Benedikt Brenner

 English

   Madagascar est mondialement célèbre. Mentionner l'île, la quatrième plus grande, et la plupart des gens de la planète pensent de sa biodiversité étonnante, ses lémuriens, ou - films d'animation éponyme - en particulier.

   Peu de gens savent rien sur les sécheresses de Madagascar, ses inondations, sa population souffre de malnutrition chronique ou de son système de santé défunte. Peu de gens savent que Madagascar est un des pays les moins avancés dans le monde, ou que sa situation humanitaire est l'un des plus graves. 

   Cette peine est inhabituelle. La fatigue de la pauvreté est réel, et il peut être difficile d'intéresser quiconque en dehors de la communauté du développement dans les sorts des pays africains pauvres. 

   Mais même à cette échelle, Madagascar est une aberration. Même au sein de la communauté du développement, Madagascar continue d'être négligé.

   À la fin de Septembre dans un hôtel de la capitale, Antananarivo, le Fonds des Nations Unies pour l'enfance (UNICEF) a rassemblé des journalistes étrangers pour discuter de ce problème. Leur argument est que Madagascar est un orphelin de donateurs »: un pays qui devrait être obtenir beaucoup de l'aide au développement, mais l'est pas. Ceci est une source de frustration pour de nombreux travailleurs humanitaires à Madagascar, qui se confient - off the record - que leurs sièges sociaux ne reçoivent pas toujours il.

   L'ampleur de la crise humanitaire de Madagascar est dramatique. Selon l'UNICEF, 23 millions d'habitants du pays ont le pire accès à l'eau et à l'assainissement dans le monde. Près de la moitié de la pratique de la défécation en plein air population rurale. Les taux de mortalité néonatale et maternelle sont en hausse. Il a la quatrième pire situation de malnutrition chronique dans le monde.

   Un enfant sur quatre ne vont pas à l'école, avec seulement un tiers de ceux qui ne remplissant primaire. Un climat rude apporte urgences régulières: il y avait des inondations dévastatrices dans une partie du pays plus tôt cette année, et une sécheresse en cours encore plus dévastateur dans l'autre, et le pays est secoué par des cyclones réguliers (il est le cinquième pays le plus sujet aux cyclones dans le monde).

   Un gouvernement central faillite vers signifie qu'il ya peu de réponse du gouvernement à ces questions humanitaires. Malgré cela, l'aide internationale à Madagascar a effectivement diminué au cours des dernières années, et ne montre aucun des signes de reprise à nouveau. Plusieurs théories peuvent expliquer cette négligence apparente.

   Le premier, et le plus convaincant, est que sa situation géographique - comme une île au milieu de l'océan Indien - signifie qu'il a peu d'intérêt géostratégique pour la plupart des pays donateurs. Madagascar est pas sur les lignes de tout conflit majeur de défaut; il est pas une intersection sur une route commerciale importante; il est pas à la maison à de vastes réserves de pétrole. En outre, l'océan empêche problèmes malgaches de se répandre dans les pays voisins, car il n'y a pas de pays voisins. L'océan isole Madagascar du reste du monde.

   La seconde est que Madagascar, toujours à cause de sa position et de l'histoire inhabituelle, tombe dans un trop grand nombre d'organisations régionales différentes. Ceux-ci comprennent la Southern African Development Community (SADC), l'Union africaine, l'Organisation internationale de la Francophonie, et de la Commission de l'océan Indien. Tous ces prendre un certain, mais pas la pleine responsabilité de Madagascar - et ont souvent différente, et pas nécessairement complémentaires, les approches pour traiter avec le pays.

   Une autre théorie est que la nature de la crise de Madagascar ne se prête pas à l'intervention des bailleurs de fonds. Il est plus facile de justifier le financement dans les situations de conflit, ou en cas de catastrophes très visibles comme les séismes ou les tsunamis, ou pour haut-profil des épidémies comme le virus Ebola ou le VIH / sida. Les problèmes de Madagascar ont tendance à être moins «sexy».

   La malnutrition chronique, qui affecte 47% des enfants malgaches de moins de cinq ans, est une crise en grande partie invisible, parce que les dégâts qu'il inflige est la plupart du temps à l'intérieur du cerveau. Cela ne se prête pas à des photos déchirantes. Il est à noter, dans ce contexte, que l'engagement international plus haut-profil avec Madagascar, les efforts de médiation de la SADC, a été conçu pour répondre à la crise politique déclenchée par le coup d'Etat 2009 - pas de crise humanitaire en cours du pays.

   David Zounmenou, chercheur principal à l'Institut d'études de sécurité, les points à un autre facteur. «Géographie ou même la linguistique pourraient avoir quelque chose à voir avec l'apparente négligence des questions humanitaires à Madagascar. Cependant, nous pouvons ajouter que, encore une fois, le pays est victime de «syndrome de négligence post-crise», où l'attention internationale décline une fois qu'il ya une élection pour rétablir un semblant de normalité dans zones de conflits ».

   Élections en 2013 ostensiblement fermés le chapitre sur les quatre années de crise politique provoquée par un coup d'Etat en 2009, bien que nouveau président Hery Rajaonarimampianina a peu fait pour résoudre la crise humanitaire. De nombreux donateurs ont également été effrayés par la crise elle-même, ou vaincus par les sanctions imposées à Madagascar à la suite du coup d'Etat.

   Le statut de Madagascar comme «orphelins de donateurs» soulève également une question plus générale: comment les bailleurs de fonds se différencient entre les différents pays frappés par la crise en compétition pour leur attention? Ce qui se passe dans les jugements de valeur qui sont faites pour déterminer qui reçoit de l'argent et de l'attention, et qui ne le fait pas?

   Indices peuvent être tirées de l'autre profession qui rend des jugements similaires, souvent sur ​​les mêmes situations exactes: le journalisme. Diverses crises en concurrence pour attirer l'attention sur la première page, et les correspondants étrangers doivent travailler dur pour convaincre leurs éditeurs à mettre de côté des ressources pour Voyage. David Smith, correspondant en Afrique pour The Guardian, dit ISS aujourd'hui qu'une combinaison de facteurs décide de ce qu'il couvre, et ce qu'il ne fait pas.

   Inutile de dire que Madagascar ne fait pas souvent la coupe. The Guardian répond principalement à un public britannique, et les liens historiques jouent un rôle important dans les décisions de contenu. Zimbabwe, par exemple, reçoit beaucoup d'attention. Le coût est important, donc les voyages à des endroits hors-the-way comme Madagascar sont généralement coûteux à justifier. La nature de la crise joue aussi un rôle: cela plaise ou non, la violence est généralement plus dignes d'intérêt que lent catastrophes humanitaires.

   En d'autres termes: pas toutes les crises sont créés égaux. Et, plus important, la quantité d'attention reçoit une crise est non seulement en fonction de sa gravité. Cela a des implications majeures pour les journalistes, les chercheurs et les professionnels du développement. Il est clair que les titres ne sont pas un indicateur fiable de l'importance des crises soit politiques ou humanitaires, et ni l'attention des bailleurs de fonds. Pour comprendre notre monde meilleur - de distribuer une attention et des ressources limitées de manière plus équitable - nous devons regarder au-delà de ces mesures.

   Jusque-là, les goûts de la crise humanitaire à Madagascar continueront à voler sous le radar, avec des millions de personnes touchées par sa négligence.

 

Simon Alllison, ISS Consultant