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FOREIGN AFFAIRS August 20, 2023

How Ukraine Can Win a Long War

The West Needs a Strategy for After the Counteroffensive

By Mick Ryan

A remarkable article, well written, very detailed, rather optimistic in assessing Ukraine’s chances to win the war.

The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.

Defeat Russia! Support them in their fight! Continue their evolution in quality and endurance…

Endurance is the crux of the matter. The article fails to spotlight the crucial shortage of Ukraine: men. Trainloads of western hardware and brilliant software based advice cannot replace manpower, soldiers.

According to U.S. estimates, as of August 2023, Ukraine has already lost an entire generation of young men, 70,000 dead and between 100,000 and 120,000 wounded, the Guardian and the New York Times reported.

According to the 2023 International Institute of Strategic Studies’ Military Balance report, Ukraine now has an active-duty force of 688,000 with 400,000 in reserve and 250,000 in its police and paramilitary forces.

Close to 200.000 casualties compare with some 290,000 soldiers in active duty.

As of 2023, according to different data published by Statista in February. Russia had an estimated 1,330,900 people listed among its total military personnel, compared with 500,000 for Ukraine. Russia had 830,900 active soldiers, with Ukraine at 200,000, according to this data.Both countries had reserve forces of 250,000 people.

If these estimates are credible they mean that as many Ukrainians have been killed or wounded as remained active in fighting..

Replacing the casualties has become more and more difficult in a war of attrition which benefits Russia with its millions of potential recruits, its powerful and fully functioning armaments industry and the deep pockets of its natural resources-rich government..

In Ukraine, forcing all men, even old, wounded and handicapped ones, to serve in the armed forces is a nasty but understandable requirement of this fight for survival of the nation.

Michael Kofman, director of the Russian Studies Program at the CNA research organization, said … that talking to soldiers at different levels gave him the impression that "many of the best people have been lost." "You often lose your best people in war first," Kofman said. "Many of the folks who are trained by NATO between 2014 and 2022 have been lost too. A lot of junior leaders have either been lost or have been rotated up and promoted. So there's a lot of churn.

Is there any way by which Ukraine could solve its military personnel shortage? Well, there are two possible ways

== hiring and enlisting foreigners

--- training and enlisting women.

Experiences Ukraine had with foreign volunteers are not encouraging. Communication problems, lack of battlefield experience, low tolerance of rough conditions are among the problems encountered. In any case, the numbers of foreign volunteers are way too low to offer Ukraine more than symbolic support.

Enlisting women for battlefield service means a psychological problem for patriarchal societies such as Ukraine.

women
 Presentation of body armor specially designed for women – a long overdue initiative. With 5000 women serving in combat roles, this is essential for better protection. Even Princess Olga Monument is wearing one too

However, it is not unusual: Israel and the Kurdish part of Syria and Iraq are well known for their brave and tough women soldiers. Still, many women of suitable age have fled Ukraine with their children; others have been internally displaced. It would be difficult to contact them and motivate them for military service.

Their work not only serves the children; in the absence of men they bear the brunt of the Ukrainian economy.

Heinrich von Loesch
 
For the record, Ukraine’s armed forces comprise around 42,000 women, with 5,000 bravely serving on the frontlines. Their body armor is versatile, with detachable parts for diverse tasks.

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Laïcité : "On ne pourra plus porter l'abaya à l'école", annonce le ministre de l'Education nationale Gabriel Attal

Jusqu'ici, le ministère laissait une marge d'interprétation sur le caractère religieux du port de l'abaya, une robe longue et ample portée par-dessus les vêtements, tout en estimant possible de l'interdire.

 

Ce qu'il faut savoir  "On ne pourra plus porter l'abaya à l'école", une robe longue et ample portée par-dessus les vêtements, annonce le ministre de l'Education nationale, Gabriel Attal invité du "20 heures" de TF1, dimanche 27 août. "Cette règle me semble nécessaire et juste", a ajouté le ministre, assurant qu'il allait "donner toutes les clés" aux chefs d'établissements "pour qu'ils puissent faire appliquer cette règle". Jusqu'ici, le ministère laissait une marge d'interprétation sur le caractère religieux du port de l'abaya, tout en estimant possible de l'interdire. Pap Ndiaye, prédécesseur de Gabriel Attal, s'était refusé à réglementer dans le détail "les longueurs des robes".

Franceinfo:
«Il y a 513 établissements que nous avons identifiés comme potentiellement concernés par cette question-là à la rentrée scolaire», a affirmé Gabriel Attal sur RTL. «On a beaucoup travaillé avec les équipes de l'Éducation nationale, aussi avec le ministère de l'Intérieur sur ce sujet-là, pour identifier les établissements dans lesquels on sait qu'a priori cette situation va se présenter.»
F Politique (Figaro)

On the first day of the new academic year French schools sent home dozens of girls for refusing to remove their abayas, the education minister said on Tuesday.Defying a ban on the Muslim garment, nearly 300 girls showed up on Monday morning wearing an abaya, Gabriel Attal told the BFM broadcaster. Most agreed to change, but 67 refused and were sent home, he said.

The Guardian
 

Jeudi, le père d’une lycéenne a menacé de mort le proviseur du lycée Ambroise Brugières, à Clermont-Ferrand, selon une information de La Montagne confirmée au Figaro par la procureure de la République, Dominique Puechmaille.

Dans la matinée, la fille de ce dernier s’était vue refuser l’accès à son établissement scolaire, conformément aux directives nationales, après avoir refusé de retirer son abaya. Informé de cette situation, son père a appelé le lycée et a proféré des menaces de mort à l’encontre du proviseur. L’Éducation nationale a immédiatement déposé plainte et l’homme a été interpellé et placé en garde à vue pour «menace en vue d'intimidation d'une personne chargée d'une mission de service public».

FIGARO

 

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The result of repression and corruption

It's no wonder nothing came of the mission, economist Konstantin Sonin comments on his Facebook page:

“Can you kick scientists out of their jobs and out of the country, up universities and research centres, intimidate students and prospective students, wage war on international science and cooperation - and then hope for anything more than luck? ...

In the past ten years Roscosmos has become a code word for corruption and theft of public funds. ... Putin's people only put money into the space project to make it easier to steal. ... The real miracle would have been a successful Luna 25 mission.”

KONSTANTIN SONIN

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Es gab Zweifel, ob der Milizenführer tatsächlich in der Maschine sass, als sie abstürzte. Als ob der FSB, der jeden Schritt Prigoschins verfolgte, sich hätte irren können. Niemals.

Das Flugzeug stürzte brennend ab, weil Prigoschin darin sass. Ein Flugabwehrgeschoss soll es gewesen sein, das die Maschine aus dem Himmel holte. Wieso geschah das?
Es gibt vier konkurrierende Erklärungen:
1. Putin gab den Auftrag, der FSB führte ihn durch. Es sollte wie eine Hinrichtung aussehen, zur Abschreckung.
2. Das Militär hasste Prigoschin und seine Wagners und nahm auf eigene Faust Rache.
3. Prigoschin hat, wie so oft, den Transponder ausgeschaltet, damit er unbemerkt über Russland fliegen konnte. Die Flugüberwachung hätte seine Maschine aber entdeckt, für ein ukrainisches Sabotageflugzeug gehalten und daher abgeschossen.
4. Ein besonders schlauer Kremlfreund hat vermutet, dass es die Ukraine war, die sich an Prigoschin rächen und Wagner für immer eliminieren wollte. Ein ungewolltes Kompliment für die nahezu übernatürlichen Fähigkeiten der Ukrainer!

Wie immer es in Wirklichkeit geschah: Prigoschins Tod klebt an Putin nach so vielen Fensterstürzen und Vergiftungen, wie die deutsche Außenministerin undiplomatisch vermerkte.

Heinrich von Loesch
 
Update
Boris Johnson:
"Während wir die erschreckenden Aufnahmen des Flugzeugs sehen, das in einer Spirale zur Erde stürzt, werden wir Zeugen von etwas Historischem. Dies ist die gewaltsame Liquidierung seiner Feinde durch ein bestehendes Staatsoberhaupt - im Fernsehen. Ich kann mir kein anderes Beispiel für eine solch ostentative und ungehemmte Grausamkeit eines Staatschefs vorstellen - nicht zu unseren Lebzeiten", schrieb Johnson. Er sagte, die Welt solle "wissen", dass Putin dafür verantwortlich sei.
 
Wie passend, dass sich zufällig mitten in der Pampa bei Tver eine Kamera befand, die den Absturz aufzeichnen konnte!  (--ed)                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

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The devotion of Republicans to their Dear Leader Donald Trump is astonishingly steadfast. He is leading his challengers in the primary for the GOP presidential nomination by substantial margins, despite his having been indicted a historic four times with a total of 91 felony count. Clearly Republican voters do not regard respect for the law or the Constitution as requirements for public service. To the contrary, their dismissal of Trump's criminality appears to be an extra incentive to cast their votes for him. They cling ever tighter to Trump, even as he himself seems to be descending into an abyss of psychological trauma, paranoia, and fear.

SEE THIS: UPDATE on Donald Trump’s Deteriorating Mental State

The first rule of a cult is to believe only what the cult leader tells you, and that everyone else is lying. Trump has made that explicit admonition himself in order to keep his followers in line, saying that saying that “what you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” Now, a new poll by CBS News confirms that the glassy-eyed Trump disciples have an allegiance to him that transcends all other influencers in their lives...

"Right now, the Republican Party would easily re-nominate Donald Trump for 2024. And it's not close. The former president now holds his largest lead over his rivals. [...] Trump's voters hold him as a source of true information, even more so than other sources, including conservative media figures, religious leaders, and even their own friends and family."
 

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